{"schema_version": 1, "id": "decatur-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 131, "label": "Decatur, AL MSA", "slug": "decatur-al-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:08.374422+00:00", "headline": "Decatur's jobless rate spikes even as Nucor expansion signals confidence.", "headline_summary": "Decatur MSA unemployment jumped to 4.2% in September from 3.3% in July, but Morgan County held near 2.9% and Nucor's 200-job expansion points to continued manufacturing investment.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Decatur MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 3.3% in July 2026"}, {"label": "Morgan County unemployment rate", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Among Alabama's lowest, Aug. 2026"}, {"label": "Alabama wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "3.0%", "context": "Trails ~3.4% national CPI reading"}, {"label": "Nucor expansion job commitment", "value": "200+ jobs", "context": "Towers and Structures project, Decatur metro"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Headline unemployment jump may be noise, not a turn.", "body": "Decatur MSA unemployment rose from 3.3% in July to 4.2% in September, yet Morgan County \u2014 the metro's largest employment base \u2014 held near 2.9%, among Alabama's lowest county rates. The gap suggests methodology or seasonal volatility in the metro figure rather than a genuine deterioration in local labor demand."}, {"headline": "Nucor's 200-job expansion is the clearest local growth signal.", "body": "Nucor Towers and Structures' buildout stands out against a national backdrop where manufacturing added only 9,000 jobs in September, making Decatur's investment disproportionately significant for a metro of this size. Construction and manufacturing wages locally ($1,432 and $1,390 weekly statewide records) indicate the sector is paying a premium to staff expansion."}, {"headline": "Local wage growth is losing ground to inflation.", "body": "Alabama's average weekly wage rose 3% over the year, below the national CPI reading near 3.4%, echoing the national pattern where real wages have turned negative for the first time in two years. Softer purchasing power locally could dampen retail and services spending even as manufacturing investment expands."}, {"headline": "Rural-urban disparity complicates any single 'Alabama economy' narrative.", "body": "Shelby and Elmore counties post sub-2% unemployment while Perry County sits above 5%, and Decatur's own metro-versus-county gap fits this pattern. Commerce leaders evaluating regional investment or workforce pipelines should treat county-level data, not metro or state averages, as the more decision-relevant benchmark."}], "local_conditions": "Decatur MSA's unemployment rate jumped to 4.2% in September from a far tighter 3.3% in July, even as Morgan County \u2014 the metro's economic core \u2014 continued posting some of Alabama's lowest county-level readings near 2.9%, a split that points to volatility in the headline number rather than a broad local downturn. Capital investment remains the dominant local force: Nucor Towers and Structures' expansion is set to add more than 200 jobs, reinforcing a manufacturing base anchored by 3M, Hexcel, Wayne Farms and United Launch Alliance at a time when national manufacturing hiring is one of the few sectors still adding jobs.", "implications": "Divergence between the metro's rising headline unemployment rate and Morgan County's structurally tight labor conditions suggests commerce and workforce leaders should treat the September uptick cautiously rather than as evidence of broad softening \u2014 the undercount of true local tightness could understate competition for skilled manufacturing and trades labor as Nucor's expansion ramps hiring. Alabama's wage growth of 3% year-over-year is trailing national inflation readings near 3.4%, a dynamic that, if sustained locally, could temper consumer spending even as employer investment signals confidence; current conditions suggest economic development officials monitor whether Nucor-driven job creation translates into measurable wage gains in construction and manufacturing before drawing conclusions about broader purchasing power.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Decatur MSA's unemployment rate reverts toward Morgan County's sub-3% trend in the October release or holds near 4.2%, which would indicate a genuine shift rather than a one-month anomaly."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Nucor Towers and Structures hiring activity should begin showing up in Morgan County's manufacturing payroll counts over the next two reporting cycles, offering an early read on whether the 200-job commitment is on pace."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0%, its weakest pace since 2021, against 3.4% inflation; if Alabama's 3% wage trend holds while CPI stays elevated, local consumer spending data merits closer tracking."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings remain concentrated in manufacturing and logistics; with Decatur's economy weighted toward those sectors, any new Alabama WARN notice naming a metro-area employer would be a signal worth flagging early, regardless of size."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21611.0, "metro_p50": 27572.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22054.0, "metro_p50": 25721.0, "metro_p75": 26966.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30082.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55369.0, "metro_p50": 77288.8, "metro_p75": 83590.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30580.0, "metro_p50": 32180.0, "metro_p75": 35624.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34371.5, "metro_p50": 34865.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 62366.0, "metro_p75": 69323.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32192.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20357.0, "metro_p50": 25992.0, "metro_p75": 32933.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 30083.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28941.5, "metro_p50": 35387.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 36151.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60623.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71977.75, "metro_p50": 82160.0, "metro_p75": 89311.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86535.0, "metro_p50": 105000.0, "metro_p75": 108088.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99196.0, "metro_p50": 139460.0, "metro_p75": 158334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59005.5, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 72527.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66158.75, "metro_p50": 94031.8, "metro_p75": 101749.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 57931.0, "metro_p75": 61610.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43367.0, "metro_p50": 57285.0, "metro_p75": 69020.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 71778.6, "metro_p75": 78593.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31477.0, "metro_p50": 51085.0, "metro_p75": 57424.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53449.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49567.75, "metro_p50": 58928.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80724.75, "metro_p50": 90522.2, "metro_p75": 91484.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 48734.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 78101.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34451.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53154.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 69011.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 48195.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 42640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55350.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67156.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "decatur-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "decatur-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "decatur-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:00.074745+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/decatur-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/decatur-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}