{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 158, "label": "Dayton, OH MSA", "slug": "dayton-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:34:44.960309+00:00", "headline": "Dayton tops 400,000 jobs, then stalls as Ohio's labor pool shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Dayton's metro employment crossed 400,000 for the first time since 2005 before losing 1,000 jobs in August, a reversal that lines up with Ohio's labor force participation rate sliding to 61.2% against 61.8% nationally.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dayton metro total nonfarm employment", "value": "400,800", "context": "First time above 400k in over two decades (June 2026)"}, {"label": "Dayton metro monthly job change", "value": "-1,000", "context": "August 2026, after +700 in July"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force participation rate", "value": "61.2%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate, declining since June 2025"}, {"label": "Dayton metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.7%", "context": "27th lowest of 108 large metros, Aug 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Dayton's 400,000-job milestone arrived just before a pullback.", "body": "Metro employment surpassed 400,000 for the first time since 2005 in June, then the area lost 1,000 jobs in August after a 700-job gain in July. The whipsaw suggests the expansion is real and has yet to stabilize month to month, a distinction that matters for anyone timing a local investment decision."}, {"headline": "Ohio's shrinking labor force is the quieter story behind low unemployment.", "body": "Ohio's labor force participation rate (61.2%) trails the national rate (61.8%) and has been declining since June 2025, even as the state's 3.4% unemployment rate looks favorable against the 4.1% national figure. Low unemployment paired with a shrinking labor pool is consistent with fewer available workers locally, a sign worth weighing against assumptions of a tighter, healthier market."}, {"headline": "Sector wage divergence shows the metro's recovery is uneven.", "body": "Advertised pay for manufacturing production workers (+moderate), HVAC technicians (+moderate) and account managers (+significant) is rising locally, while accountants, financial analysts and construction laborers are seeing moderate declines. Commerce and economic development leaders courting new investment should match sector targeting to where local wage momentum is actually building, treating the metro average as a secondary reference."}, {"headline": "Defense and logistics remain Dayton's structural advantage.", "body": "Transportation and warehousing (+2.9% year-over-year) and continued defense-sector activity helped the region capture more than a quarter of Ohio's private-sector job gains in the first half of 2026. That concentration is a durable local asset, though it also means Dayton's trajectory stays more exposed than most Ohio metros to federal spending decisions."}], "local_conditions": "Dayton metro employment crossed 400,000 jobs for the first time in over two decades during the first half of 2026, with private education and health services (+3.3%), construction (+3.2%) and leisure and hospitality (+3.2%) leading year-over-year growth, before the metro shed 1,000 jobs in August \u2014 a reversal that tracks a broader statewide pattern of Ohio losing 5,000 jobs in September and labor force participation slipping to 61.2% against a 61.8% national rate. Local employers continue adjusting advertised pay across the basket \u2014 manufacturing production and HVAC technician pay both trending up, while retail, construction labor and financial roles trend down \u2014 consistent with a metro economy expanding in aggregate while individual sectors reprice unevenly against inflation.", "implications": "Dayton's August pullback after a historically strong first half suggests the metro's expansion is losing some altitude at the same moment Ohio's labor force is shrinking, which narrows the pool of available workers even as headline unemployment stays low. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or facility investment should treat the 400,000-job milestone as a structural gain in regional capacity that still requires confirmation through continued monthly acceleration, given the August reversal and statewide participation decline. Current conditions suggest reviewing expansion timelines against sector-specific momentum \u2014 construction, healthcare and logistics show sustained strength locally \u2014 as the more informative gauge compared with the metro's aggregate employment trend alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "September and October BLS metro-level data for Dayton has not yet posted; watch for whether August's 1,000-job loss was a one-month dip or the start of a trend when the next release lands."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Ohio's statewide labor force participation decline, now in its fifth consecutive month of contraction, bears watching for whether Dayton specifically is losing workers to retirement, relocation, or reduced search activity."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction and manufacturing carry the strongest year-over-year growth locally, but Ohio's statewide WARN filings show manufacturing accounted for 23 of 64 notices and the most affected workers in 2026. Any Dayton-specific plant-level announcement would be a meaningful test of whether the metro's manufacturing gains are concentrated or broad-based."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Real wages are falling against inflation both statewide and nationally; watch metro-level consumer spending and retail job ads, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, for early evidence of softening household spending power feeding back into local retail and hospitality activity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24167.0, "metro_p50": 29532.6, "metro_p75": 33643.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24970.0, "metro_p50": 27667.2, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35985.2, "metro_p75": 38191.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 88000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30386.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32237.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33678.0, "metro_p50": 39336.2, "metro_p75": 42416.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31651.0, "metro_p50": 38099.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27527.0, "metro_p50": 31472.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41285.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35403.0, "metro_p50": 43658.0, "metro_p75": 47670.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61598.0, "metro_p50": 74079.0, "metro_p75": 80080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79383.0, "metro_p50": 93360.8, "metro_p75": 106236.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 102197.0, "metro_p50": 121490.2, "metro_p75": 132584.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101450.0, "metro_p50": 123150.0, "metro_p75": 127500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58946.0, "metro_p50": 65100.0, "metro_p75": 73689.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74345.0, "metro_p50": 86800.0, "metro_p75": 94041.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56769.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 83566.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48448.75, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 65200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71747.0, "metro_p50": 82820.8, "metro_p75": 93502.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29264.0, "metro_p50": 43000.0, "metro_p75": 48453.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74045.5, "metro_p50": 132250.0, "metro_p75": 147544.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51862.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75224.0, "metro_p50": 89259.0, "metro_p75": 94355.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62430.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 81062.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34195.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61974.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 80900.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 77381.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60766.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64810.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:50.432223+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}