{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 158, "label": "Dayton, OH MSA", "slug": "dayton-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:03.966720+00:00", "headline": "Dayton's 3.0% jobless rate signals tight supply, not growth.", "headline_summary": "Dayton metro unemployment sits at 3.0% \u2014 well below Ohio's 3.3% and the national 4.1% \u2014 even as local job growth slows to roughly 100 positions a month, the weakest pace since 2020.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dayton MSA unemployment rate", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs 3.3% Ohio, 4.1% national (August 2026)"}, {"label": "Dayton metro job growth pace", "value": "~100/month avg 2026", "context": "Down from 117/month in 2025; weakest since 2020"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force change", "value": "-95,000 over year", "context": "Despite 39,000 working-age population gain"}, {"label": "National wage vs. inflation gap", "value": "3.0% wages vs 3.4% CPI", "context": "First sustained real-wage decline in two years"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Dayton's 3.0% jobless rate is a capacity story, not a growth story.", "body": "Unemployment sits well below state and national rates, but job creation has slowed to its lowest pace since 2020. Tight labor supply, not weak demand, increasingly looks like the metro's primary growth constraint \u2014 relevant for any project requiring fast workforce ramp-up."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and construction momentum hinges on trades availability.", "body": "Federal Reserve reporting and local wage data both point to skilled-trades shortages constraining otherwise-active manufacturing and construction hiring plans. Electrician and HVAC technician pay in Dayton remains flat even as national rates climb, suggesting local employers may be absorbing cost pressure rather than bidding up pay to attract scarce trades workers."}, {"headline": "Wage softness in office and professional roles bucks the national pattern.", "body": "Accountant, financial analyst, administrative, and marketing pay all registered moderate local declines even as their national counterparts rose, a divergence worth flagging for anyone benchmarking Dayton's cost competitiveness for office-based investment against national trends."}, {"headline": "Ohio's falling unemployment rate masks a shrinking labor force statewide.", "body": "Ohio's jobless rate fell on a labor force that contracted by 95,000 over the year, not on employment strength \u2014 Dayton's own metro-level participation data is not yet separately confirmed this month, but the statewide pattern warrants scrutiny of whether local gains reflect the same dynamic."}], "local_conditions": "Dayton metro unemployment held at a strikingly low 3.0% in August, outperforming both Ohio (3.3%) and the nation (4.1%), even as the metro's own job growth has slowed to roughly 100 net new positions per month in 2026, the weakest pace since 2020. Manufacturing and construction employers across the region report adding staff to meet demand tied to data-center and industrial buildout, while Federal Reserve surveys cite skilled-trades shortages as the binding constraint on how much further that expansion can go.", "implications": "Low unemployment paired with near-flat job growth signals a metro economy running near capacity rather than one cooling off \u2014 the constraint on local business expansion looks more like available skilled labor than available demand. For commerce and economic development leaders evaluating site-selection pitches, incentive packages, or expansion announcements, the binding question is workforce depth in trades and production occupations, not general labor availability. Current conditions suggest monitoring skilled-trades pipeline capacity (apprenticeship enrollment, technical college throughput) as a leading indicator of whether announced manufacturing and construction projects can staff up on schedule.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Dayton's sub-4% unemployment rate combined with sub-2020 job growth pace raises the question of whether the metro is approaching full labor utilization. Watch whether announced manufacturing and construction expansions proceed on timeline or get delayed by staffing constraints."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide manufacturing WARN activity (23 notices in 90 days, led by International Motors' 1,341-worker layoff) has not yet concentrated in Dayton specifically, but commerce leaders should monitor whether released manufacturing talent begins appearing in regional postings or relocates toward Dayton's active construction and production sector."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has decelerated to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation \u2014 the first sustained real-wage decline in two years. Whether Dayton's advertised pay figures, currently stable to down across several white-collar categories, begin tracking that national softening will matter for consumer spending projections used in local economic forecasts."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "October's first national jobs report revisions (July-August payrolls cut by a combined 60,000) suggest continued downward revision risk. Local economists and chambers relying on real-time employment estimates should treat preliminary Dayton figures as directional until revised."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24203.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 30361.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31126.0, "metro_p50": 35485.0, "metro_p75": 38024.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60461.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 88841.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27654.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 41654.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55011.0, "metro_p50": 68702.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33120.0, "metro_p50": 38397.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29511.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27856.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37835.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41588.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35264.25, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 47192.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61598.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79794.75, "metro_p50": 93600.0, "metro_p75": 107294.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100555.0, "metro_p50": 120007.2, "metro_p75": 132500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93693.0, "metro_p50": 120919.0, "metro_p75": 126656.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58946.0, "metro_p50": 65652.0, "metro_p75": 73414.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75337.0, "metro_p50": 86856.4, "metro_p75": 93257.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55693.0, "metro_p50": 71748.0, "metro_p75": 83386.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47476.5, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 65200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70928.5, "metro_p50": 82546.4, "metro_p75": 92484.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 43915.0, "metro_p75": 48663.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75307.5, "metro_p50": 147544.0, "metro_p75": 147544.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52327.0, "metro_p50": 67000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75039.25, "metro_p50": 86646.8, "metro_p75": 92365.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 63067.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 79500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34195.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64166.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 83436.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49645.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 74211.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60971.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33263.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66041.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:57.473602+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dayton-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}