{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dayton-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 158, "label": "Dayton, OH MSA", "slug": "dayton-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "human_resources", "slug": "human-resources", "label": "Human Resources"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:08:44.110053+00:00", "headline": "Dayton's 3.0% jobless rate hides a hiring slowdown, not strength.", "headline_summary": "Dayton's unemployment rate sits at a metro-leading 3.0%, but job growth has slowed to just 100 positions per month in 2026 \u2014 even as Compensation Analyst advertised pay climbs to $113,979, well above the $101,727 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dayton MSA unemployment rate", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.3% Ohio (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro job growth pace", "value": "100/month", "context": "Down from 117/month in 2025; lowest since 2020"}, {"label": "Montgomery County unemployment", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Above metro-wide 3.0% rate \u2014 county-level divergence"}, {"label": "Compensation Analyst advertised pay", "value": "$113,979", "context": "vs $101,727 national median, up significantly"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "3.0% unemployment masks a stalling hiring engine.", "body": "Dayton's jobless rate ranks near the tightest in the country, yet 2026 job growth of 100/month is the slowest since 2020. Tightness here looks structural \u2014 driven by labor scarcity, not robust expansion \u2014 which keeps replacement costs elevated for critical roles."}, {"headline": "Compensation Analyst pay surge signals a local benchmarking arms race.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Compensation Analysts hit $113,979, above the $101,727 national median and moving sharply. Employers appear to be paying up for in-house expertise to navigate pay transparency exposure and a tightening skilled-labor market simultaneously."}, {"headline": "Entry-level and coordination roles are quietly losing ground.", "body": "HR Coordinator ($42,713), Recruiter ($55,000) and Payroll Specialist ($53,447) advertised pay all declined locally while national figures rose \u2014 a divergence worth investigating before assuming it reflects softening demand rather than a shift in who's posting these roles."}, {"headline": "Skilled-trades scarcity is the real constraint on manufacturing hiring plans.", "body": "Fed-sourced reporting shows manufacturing and construction firms adding staff but constrained by skilled-trades shortages, consistent with statewide WARN data showing manufacturing as Ohio's most volatile sector. Retention incentives for trades talent may matter more than headline wage adjustments this quarter."}], "local_conditions": "Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek posted a 3.0% unemployment rate in August 2026, among the tightest readings of any major metro nationally, even as job growth across the metro slowed to an average of 100 positions per month in 2026 \u2014 the lowest pace since 2020. Manufacturing and construction employers are adding staff to chase growth opportunities per Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reporting, but skilled-trades shortages are capping how much of that demand converts into filled roles.", "implications": "Low unemployment paired with near-stagnant job growth points to a labor market where attrition, not expansion, drives most hiring need \u2014 turnover in hard-to-fill technical and skilled-trade roles will cost more to replace than it did a year ago. Compensation Analyst advertised pay climbing to a $113,979 metro median against a $101,727 national figure suggests Dayton employers are actively investing in sharper pay-equity and benchmarking capability precisely as labor supply tightens. Consider reviewing retention premiums for skilled-trades and technical roles before assuming slower headline job growth means hiring pressure has eased.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Montgomery County's 3.9% unemployment rate \u2014 notably higher than the metro's 3.0% headline figure \u2014 converges or diverges over the next two reports; a persistent gap could flag uneven recovery across the MSA's counties."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio's labor force has shrunk by 95,000 workers year-over-year despite population growth. If that contraction shows up locally in Dayton's labor force participation, expect intensified competition for hourly and skilled-trades talent heading into Q4."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Cleveland's new pay transparency requirements for employers with 15+ employees could set a precedent other Ohio metros face pressure to adopt. Dayton employers should monitor whether similar disclosure rules gain traction regionally before they become mandatory."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National information-sector layoffs (Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle cited in September WARN filings) have not yet shown up meaningfully in Dayton-specific notices. A shift of displaced tech or corporate talent into the local candidate pool would ease pressure on hard-to-fill analytical and HRIS roles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Compensation Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96810.25, "metro_p50": 113979.0, "metro_p75": 115344.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 101727.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Business Partner", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59448.0, "metro_p50": 80080.0, "metro_p75": 88687.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 83766.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Benefits Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83613.0, "metro_p50": 109762.0, "metro_p75": 119674.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 117888.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HRIS Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 74050.0, "metro_p75": 82810.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 97554.8, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HR Coordinator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36185.0, "metro_p50": 42712.6, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Recruiter", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41565.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 65362.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 68167.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Payroll Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 53447.0, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59855.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "dayton-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "pdf": "dayton-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:56.710532+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dayton-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dayton-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}