{"schema_version": 1, "id": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 216, "label": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA", "slug": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:27:27.829688+00:00", "headline": "Quad Cities manager pay climbs as tipped-wage rules loosen.", "headline_summary": "Assistant Restaurant Manager pay in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island hit $45,734 \u2014 well above the $39,211 national median \u2014 even as metro-wide employment fell 3.3% year-over-year and federal tipped-wage rules shifted in operators' favor.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Illinois-section metro unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Down from 5.4% a year ago (Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm job change", "value": "-3.3% YoY", "context": "2,900 jobs lost, steepest among IL metros"}, {"label": "Scott vs. Rock Island County unemployment", "value": "3.0% vs 4.0%", "context": "Growing divergence across the river"}, {"label": "Assistant Restaurant Manager pay gap", "value": "$45,734 vs $39,211", "context": "Metro vs. national median, up significantly"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Assistant manager pay is pulling away from the national line.", "body": "Metro Assistant Restaurant Manager pay sits at $45,734 against a $39,211 national median, a gap wide enough to suggest local operators are bidding specifically for supervisory retention. Worth benchmarking this role against turnover data before assuming parity with GM-level pay decisions."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay softening while GM pay holds flat.", "body": "Shift Manager advertised pay moved down moderately to $32,760, converging toward the $33,024 national figure, even as Restaurant Manager/GM pay stayed stable at $60,042. Compression at the first-line supervisory tier may reflect employers substituting Assistant Manager hires for Shift Manager roles, a shift in hiring structure separate from any change in demand."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation changes the FOH cost equation.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators apply the $2.13 tipped cash wage to non-tip-producing side work without the former 20% cap, a direct reduction in guaranteed wage obligations during slow shifts. Metro Server pay already sits below the national median ($31,073 vs. $35,024), so the practical savings may be larger here than in higher-wage coastal markets \u2014 but retention risk in a tight Scott County labor pool should factor into that calculus."}, {"headline": "Illinois-side job losses may ease BOH sourcing pressure.", "body": "A 2,900-job, 3.3% year-over-year decline in the Illinois section's nonfarm employment, concentrated in manufacturing and retail layoffs, could widen the candidate pool for back-of-house roles that compete with those sectors on wage. Line Cook pay here ($34,320) already trails the national median ($37,421), leaving room to test modest increases if cook-specific turnover remains the binding constraint."}], "local_conditions": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island's Illinois section posted 5.0% unemployment in September, down from 5.4% a year earlier even as nonfarm employment fell 3.3% year-over-year \u2014 a 2,900-job loss that marks the steepest decline among Illinois metros. Scott County's labor market diverges sharply, holding 3.0% unemployment versus Rock Island County's 4.0%, while a national policy shift eliminating the federal tipped-wage 80/20 rule gives operators new flexibility on side-work pay just as front-of-house retention remains stretched.", "implications": "Metro-level job contraction alongside tight Scott County unemployment signals a bifurcated labor pool \u2014 operators on the Iowa side compete for a shrinking supply of workers, while Illinois-side softening may loosen candidate flow for back-of-house roles tied to manufacturing and retail displacement. Rising local Assistant Restaurant Manager pay ($45,734, well above the $39,211 national median) suggests operators are already paying up to retain mid-management bench strength amid 80% annual turnover nationally, even as line-level roles like Server and Shift Manager hold flat or soften. Consider reviewing whether management-tier compensation increases are being funded by continued discipline on entry-level FOH pay, since that gap could widen turnover risk at the server and host level just as full-service staffing remains below pre-pandemic baselines.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy shift to monitor", "body": "80/20 rule elimination takes effect broadly this month; watch whether Quad Cities operators adjust side-work scheduling and whether effective FOH take-home pay declines enough to show up in server turnover or applicant volume."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Rock Island County unemployment (4.0%) trailing Scott County (3.0%) may widen if Illinois-side job losses continue; a growing applicant pool on the Illinois side could ease BOH hiring even as Iowa-side front-of-house roles stay tight."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois Paid Leave for All Workers Act compliance costs compound into winter seasonal staffing decisions \u2014 operators cutting hours for holiday slowdowns should model accrual obligations before assuming labor cost savings."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National cook employment is projected to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for waiters, a demand asymmetry that should show up locally first in Line Cook advertised pay movement \u2014 currently flat at $34,320 but worth tracking monthly for inflection."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 45734.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38968.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25806.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31093.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37038.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47956.0, "metro_p50": 60042.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27326.0, "metro_p50": 31073.0, "metro_p75": 33459.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28569.75, "metro_p50": 32760.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois section of metro unemployment at 5.0% in September 2026, down from 5.4%"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro nonfarm employment fell 3.3% YoY, a loss of 2,900 jobs"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Scott County unemployment at 3.0%, Rock Island County at 4.0% (Aug 2026)"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the tipped-wage 80/20 rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover reached approximately 80%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% from 2025-2035 vs. 2% for waiters"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:48.373230+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}