{"schema_version": 1, "id": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 216, "label": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA", "slug": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:36.474218+00:00", "headline": "Davenport's restaurant ladder compresses as GMs get cheaper, assistants cost more.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment fell to 4.2% even as payrolls shrank 2,100 jobs, while Restaurant Manager/GM pay dropped significantly to $57,885 and Assistant Manager pay rose to $44,831.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 4.0% in July; IL side at 3.9%"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm payrolls YoY", "value": "-2,100 jobs", "context": "-2.4%, largest metro decline in Illinois"}, {"label": "National food-service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Illinois minimum wage", "value": "$15.00/hr", "context": "Unchanged 2026, no scheduled increases"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Assistant manager pay is rising while the GM role gets cheaper.", "body": "Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay climbed significantly to a $44,831 metro median while Restaurant Manager/GM pay dropped significantly to $57,885, compressing the leadership pay ladder. This pattern is consistent with operators investing in bench strength and internal promotion pipelines rather than bidding for external GM talent."}, {"headline": "Tighter labor supply is colliding with fewer open restaurant jobs.", "body": "Metro unemployment fell to 4.2% even as total nonfarm employment dropped 2,100 jobs year-over-year, while national accommodation and food services openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 since January. Fewer postings paired with a shrinking labor pool may suggest operators are quietly stabilizing headcount rather than expanding shifts."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay softening deserves a second look.", "body": "Shift Manager advertised pay fell moderately to $32,291, now trailing the national median of $32,731 \u2014 a reversal worth flagging given this role typically absorbs scheduling and FOH supervision gaps. Current conditions suggest benchmarking this role against local competitors before assuming turnover risk is contained."}, {"headline": "Illinois-side wage certainty, Iowa-side ambiguity.", "body": "Illinois' minimum wage holds flat at $15.00 statewide with no scheduled 2026 increases, giving Rock Island County operators planning certainty the Iowa side of the metro lacks under differing wage floors. Cross-border staffing decisions should account for this asymmetry when setting FOH and tipped-wage policy across state lines."}], "local_conditions": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island's unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August, with the Illinois side of the metro dropping sharply to 3.9% from 5.3% a year earlier, even as total nonfarm payrolls contracted by 2,100 jobs year-over-year \u2014 a tightening candidate pool despite overall job losses. Nationally, accommodation and food services job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 between January and July, consistent with moderating voluntary turnover that is now reaching this metro's restaurant labor pool.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside shrinking payrolls suggests fewer active job seekers are available even as operators compete for a smaller pool, raising the cost and difficulty of replacement hiring relative to retention investment. Manager-tier pay softening locally \u2014 Restaurant Manager/GM down significantly, Shift Manager down moderately \u2014 contrasts with a significant increase in Assistant Restaurant Manager pay, pointing to budget reallocation toward developing talent rather than paying up for experienced leadership. Consider reviewing whether retention-focused scheduling and advancement pathways for assistant managers can offset reduced competitiveness at the GM level.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the Illinois side's unemployment drop to 3.9% persists once September data posts October 28 \u2014 a sustained decline would confirm a structurally tighter local labor pool rather than a seasonal blip."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National food-service job openings have fallen by roughly 27% since January; if that continues locally, operators may find it easier to fill back-of-house roles without matching the aggressive pay increases seen in 2024-2025."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manager-tier pay compression (GM down, Assistant Manager up) could accelerate if more operators shift toward promote-from-within models \u2014 track whether this narrows or reverses over the next two postings cycles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Cross-border wage divergence between Iowa and Illinois sides of the metro may widen scheduling and staffing decisions for multi-unit operators who draw labor from both states."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36324.0, "metro_p50": 44831.2, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39001.0, "metro_p50": 55120.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25742.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30919.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36951.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 57885.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27456.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33674.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28217.0, "metro_p50": 32291.2, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:56.036048+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}