{"schema_version": 1, "id": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 216, "label": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA", "slug": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:28:38.915546+00:00", "headline": "Quad-Cities management pay slips as national restaurant hiring surges.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell to a metro median of $58,678 even as national restaurant payrolls grew by 59,200 jobs in August, while Assistant Manager pay climbed to $42,995 \u2014 a compression pattern operators should watch closely.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay", "value": "$58,678", "context": "Down significantly; below $59,762 national median"}, {"label": "Scott County, IA unemployment", "value": "~3.0%", "context": "vs 3.7% Rock Island County, IL"}, {"label": "National restaurant job growth", "value": "+59,200 jobs", "context": "Largest one-month gain since January 2023"}, {"label": "Scott County wage growth", "value": "+4.2% y/y", "context": "Largest gain among large Iowa counties, Q3 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is falling while national restaurant hiring surges.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay dropped a significant margin locally to $58,678, moving opposite the national restaurant employment gain of 59,200 jobs in August. That divergence suggests Quad-Cities operators may be filling management vacancies through internal promotion rather than external hires, which changes how leaders should benchmark this role."}, {"headline": "Assistant Manager pay is climbing while GM pay retreats.", "body": "Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay rose to a metro median of $42,995, well above the $39,000 national figure, even as the GM role above it declined. Consider whether this compression is intentional \u2014 building a deeper bench before promotion \u2014 or an unplanned signal that GM roles are harder to differentiate on pay."}, {"headline": "Two counties, two labor markets, one staffing footprint.", "body": "Scott County, Iowa unemployment near 3% contrasts with Rock Island County, Illinois at 3.7% and statewide Illinois conditions closer to 4.7%. Multi-unit operators spanning both sides of the river may need location-specific pay tables rather than a single metro-wide rate card."}, {"headline": "Front-of-house pay floors are stable here but rising elsewhere.", "body": "Server and Crew advertised pay held flat locally at $31,200 even as tip-credit elimination spreads to seven states and Chicago's tipped cash wage climbs toward $13.94 under its One Fair Wage phase-in. Illinois-side Quad-Cities locations should watch whether that statewide policy direction eventually reaches downstate wage floors."}], "local_conditions": "Quad-Cities restaurant hiring is playing out against a metro labor market where Iowa-side unemployment (Scott County near 3%) sits well below Illinois-side conditions (Rock Island County at 3.7%, statewide Illinois at 4.7%), forcing operators on both banks of the river to run effectively two different labor strategies for the same trade area. National restaurant payrolls posted their largest one-month jump since January 2023 in August, but local Restaurant Manager and Shift Manager advertised pay both moved down, suggesting Quad-Cities operators are adding shifts and hours faster than they're raising management pay to fill them.", "implications": "Falling advertised pay for Restaurant Manager/GM and Shift Manager roles amid a national hiring surge is consistent with employers leaning on internal promotion and scheduling efficiency rather than external recruitment to fill management gaps \u2014 a signal that retention economics, not just wage competitiveness, now drive labor cost control here. With Scott County wages up 4.2% year-over-year but concentrated outside food service, cross-border commuting between Iowa and Illinois locations remains a live risk for both hourly and management staffing. Consider reviewing whether management pay compression is masking a retention gap rather than reflecting genuine slack in the local manager candidate pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois' One Fair Wage tip-credit phase-down is a Chicago-specific policy for now, but the trajectory toward eliminating tip credit statewide bears monitoring for any Rock Island or Moline-side ordinance activity."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National full-service restaurant employment remains 3.6% below pre-pandemic levels while QSR/casual segments add jobs freely \u2014 watch whether Quad-Cities full-service operators report longer back-of-house vacancy durations than counter-service concepts locally."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Scott County's 4.2% wage growth outpaced most large Iowa counties in the most recent data, concentrated outside food service \u2014 a signal that restaurant employers may need to raise entry-level pay simply to stay competitive with warehousing and manufacturing across the river valley."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "August 2026 MSA-specific unemployment data has not yet published; the next BLS release should clarify whether the metro's improving year-over-year trend (last seen at 5.1% in December 2025) has continued into late summer hiring season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34325.75, "metro_p50": 42995.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 40170.0, "metro_p50": 55546.0, "metro_p75": 60535.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25804.25, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30890.25, "metro_p50": 34424.0, "metro_p75": 36943.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49000.0, "metro_p50": 58678.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27326.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34053.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28194.5, "metro_p50": 32635.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:33:43.327712+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}