{"schema_version": 1, "id": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 216, "label": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA", "slug": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:34:39.898291+00:00", "headline": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island splits along the state line", "headline_summary": "Illinois-side employment fell 3.3% year-over-year even as unemployment dropped to 5.0%, while Scott County, Iowa held 3.0% unemployment with 5.1% wage growth \u2014 a divergence reshaping how commerce leaders should read the metro's health.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Illinois-side metro employment", "value": "-3.3% YoY", "context": "Steepest job loss among Illinois metros, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Scott County unemployment", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs 4.0% Rock Island County, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Scott County wage growth", "value": "5.1% YoY", "context": "Q1 2026, among strongest in Iowa"}, {"label": "Illinois-side unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Down 0.4 pts YoY despite job losses"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment is masking labor force exit alongside stalled job growth.", "body": "Illinois-side nonfarm employment dropped 2,900 positions year-over-year even as the unemployment rate improved to 5.0%, a combination that typically reflects discouraged workers leaving the labor force even as hiring strength stays weak. Government economists tracking labor force participation should treat the headline rate with caution this cycle."}, {"headline": "Scott County is outperforming Rock Island County on every measure.", "body": "Scott County's 3.0% unemployment and 5.1% wage growth stand well ahead of Rock Island County's 4.0% unemployment and comparatively flat wages, a split that mirrors the broader Iowa-Illinois divide showing up across this month's state-level data. Commerce leaders evaluating metro-wide investment should weigh which side of the river a project sits on before drawing conclusions from metro averages."}, {"headline": "Professional-services pay softening diverges from healthcare and production strength.", "body": "Data Engineer and Business Analyst advertised pay each fell significantly in the metro while Registered Nurse pay rose sharply and Manufacturing Production Worker pay rose moderately, consistent with the national pattern of white-collar softness (information, professional services) against healthcare and manufacturing resilience. That split suggests the metro's economic health depends heavily on which sectors anchor a given employer base."}, {"headline": "Real wages are eroding locally even where nominal pay looks strong.", "body": "National CPI gains of 3.5-3.7% continue to outpace median wage growth of 1.5-2.4%, and Scott County's standout 5.1% wage gain is one of the few local figures clearing that bar. Consumer spending capacity across most of the metro's workforce is likely still contracting in real terms, a relevant input for retailers and commerce leaders gauging local demand."}], "local_conditions": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island's Illinois-side employment contracted 3.3% year-over-year through September, the steepest over-the-year job loss among Illinois metros, even as unemployment on that side fell to 5.0% \u2014 a pattern consistent with workers exiting the labor force without finding new jobs. County-level divergence has widened: Scott County, Iowa held unemployment at 3.0% with 5.1% year-over-year wage growth through Q1, while Rock Island County, Illinois sat at 4.0% unemployment with considerably weaker wage momentum, pointing to an Iowa-Illinois split running through the metro's core.", "implications": "Metro-wide payroll contraction paired with falling unemployment signals labor force withdrawal rather than confirming labor market strength \u2014 a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders read local economic momentum versus assuming a cooling-but-stable economy. Local advertised pay data reinforces the bifurcation: Registered Nurse pay rose sharply (metro median $104,576), Manufacturing Production Worker pay rose moderately, while Data Engineer and Business Analyst pay each fell significantly, suggesting professional-services demand on the Illinois side is softening even as healthcare and production hold firm. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider tracking the Scott-Rock Island divergence as a leading indicator before characterizing the metro's trajectory in aggregate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Watch whether Illinois-side employment losses (-3.3% year-over-year) extend into October's release or begin to stabilize; a fourth consecutive month of decline would confirm a structural shift beyond a one-off reporting quirk."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Scott County's labor force participation and wage trajectory relative to Rock Island County will signal whether the metro is bifurcating permanently along the state line or whether Illinois-side softness is temporary."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Illinois' statewide labor force shrank 1.3% year-over-year alongside a declining unemployment rate \u2014 the same pattern showing up locally. Economic development officials should track whether this reflects retirements, out-migration, or discouraged-worker effects, each of which calls for a different policy response."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "CDL Truck Driver, HVAC Technician, and Electrician pay all moved down moderately-to-significantly in the metro this month against stable-to-rising national trends, worth monitoring as a possible early signal of softening demand in trades and logistics locally."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25778.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26668.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33530.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57955.0, "metro_p50": 75790.0, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43661.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35362.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61364.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 81670.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32849.5, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 43160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31872.0, "metro_p50": 37521.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29123.75, "metro_p50": 33592.0, "metro_p75": 33592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35875.5, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45302.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33033.5, "metro_p50": 40750.8, "metro_p75": 44934.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60404.5, "metro_p50": 70982.0, "metro_p75": 109600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84761.5, "metro_p50": 104576.0, "metro_p75": 114309.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86185.0, "metro_p50": 121190.0, "metro_p75": 145106.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87531.75, "metro_p50": 104180.8, "metro_p75": 130000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 63396.4, "metro_p75": 69375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71026.0, "metro_p50": 89154.0, "metro_p75": 99823.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58000.0, "metro_p50": 67542.2, "metro_p75": 71359.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52291.0, "metro_p50": 68312.2, "metro_p75": 106702.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 98658.0, "metro_p75": 105495.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30977.0, "metro_p50": 45302.0, "metro_p75": 50000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 80575.4, "metro_p75": 95811.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 88516.0, "metro_p75": 91748.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70251.0, "metro_p50": 77577.0, "metro_p75": 87887.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 82500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35938.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60750.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 93074.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52036.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 74125.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 85000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64893.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois-side metro employment fell 3.3% year-over-year, unemployment at 5.0%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Scott County unemployment at 3.0%, Rock Island County at 4.0%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Scott County wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year through Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois labor force shrank 1.3% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "MyRadioLink / IDES", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois-side job losses are largest among Illinois metros"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:48.020809+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}