{"schema_version": 1, "id": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 216, "label": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA", "slug": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:59.507676+00:00", "headline": "Davenport's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Illinois-side unemployment in the Quad Cities dropped to 3.9% in August even as metro payrolls fell 2,100 jobs year-over-year, a pattern that tracks statewide labor force contraction from 6.57 million to 6.48 million workers since March.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment (IL side)", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Down 1.4 pts YoY; vs 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm payroll change", "value": "-2,100 jobs", "context": "Year-over-year, largest % decline in Illinois"}, {"label": "Illinois labor force size", "value": "6.48M", "context": "Down from 6.57M in March 2026"}, {"label": "National wage vs. inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest wage growth since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment here reflects fewer workers, not more jobs.", "body": "Metro nonfarm payrolls dropped 2,100 positions year-over-year even as the Illinois-side jobless rate fell to 3.9%, a pattern mirroring the statewide dynamic where Illinois's labor force shrank from 6.57 million to 6.48 million since March. A declining rate built on labor force contraction signals a different economic story than one built on job creation."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has reopened after two years of gains.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% annually in September, its weakest pace since May 2021, against 3.4% inflation \u2014 the first sustained real-wage decline after two years of real gains above 1%. Locally, advertised pay for several blue-collar roles (CDL drivers, HVAC technicians) is trending down, suggesting the metro is not insulated from this national purchasing-power squeeze."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and healthcare carry the metro's job base, not finance.", "body": "Manufacturing employment of 11,406 and education/health services of 13,825 remain the metro's structural anchors, matching the national pattern of healthcare and construction outpacing white-collar sectors while finance and government shed jobs. Commerce leaders assessing business climate should track these hands-on sectors as the more reliable local demand signal this cycle."}, {"headline": "Illinois capital commitments outpace statewide job creation.", "body": "Illinois EDGE tax-credit commitments reached nearly 4,000 jobs and $2.5 billion in Q1 2026 alone, exceeding all of 2025, even as statewide employment forecasts call for Illinois growth of just 0.6% against 2.8% nationally. Large, policy-driven investment announcements may not translate into broad-based local job growth absent matching labor force stability."}], "local_conditions": "Davenport-Moline-Rock Island's Illinois-side unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in August, down 1.4 percentage points from a year earlier and well below the national 4.1% rate, even as total metro nonfarm employment contracted by 2,100 jobs year-over-year. That divergence \u2014 a falling jobless rate alongside shrinking payrolls \u2014 is consistent with a contracting local labor force rather than genuine hiring strength, echoing a statewide Illinois pattern in which labor force size dropped from 6,571,000 in March to 6,477,000 in August.", "implications": "Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh the fact that a favorable headline unemployment rate here may mask a shrinking available workforce rather than signal labor market tightness from strong demand. Government economists tracking workforce participation should treat the 3.9% figure as a caution flag requiring the labor force denominator, not just the numerator, before drawing conclusions about regional economic health. Consider reviewing local labor force participation trends alongside the unemployment rate before characterizing the metro's momentum as strengthening.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data release to watch", "body": "BLS will publish official September 2026 metro-level data on October 28, the first read on whether August's labor force contraction deepened or stabilized. That release will clarify whether the 3.9% unemployment figure reflects a durable trend or a one-month anomaly."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions of 60,000 to prior months, a deceleration worth tracking against whether Quad Cities nonfarm employment (down 2,100 year-over-year) stabilizes or extends its decline when new data lands."}, {"category": "Policy-neutral tracking", "body": "Trade policy uncertainty is cited by Moody's as a drag on 2026 Illinois employment broadly; metro manufacturing (11,406 jobs) and construction, both exposed to materials costs and cross-border input pricing, warrant monitoring as bare economic indicators, not policy commentary."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois WARN filings have reached 91 notices and 16,782 affected workers year-to-date statewide, concentrated in financial activities and information sectors; whether any filings touch the Quad Cities directly in October will be a near-term signal of whether local stability is holding."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25782.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26506.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35299.0, "metro_p75": 37960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 75416.8, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30628.5, "metro_p50": 37264.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34352.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63010.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 82789.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32916.25, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30687.5, "metro_p50": 36935.0, "metro_p75": 41000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 33592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35159.0, "metro_p50": 43448.0, "metro_p75": 44980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32504.5, "metro_p50": 40257.0, "metro_p75": 44932.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59428.0, "metro_p50": 69320.0, "metro_p75": 109200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84315.75, "metro_p50": 104732.6, "metro_p75": 114974.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87209.5, "metro_p50": 120000.0, "metro_p75": 141215.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87427.0, "metro_p50": 103660.0, "metro_p75": 130000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54616.0, "metro_p50": 62066.2, "metro_p75": 64954.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73414.5, "metro_p50": 94522.4, "metro_p75": 99765.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57887.75, "metro_p50": 61500.0, "metro_p75": 72970.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52291.0, "metro_p50": 61087.0, "metro_p75": 76067.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74505.5, "metro_p50": 98612.4, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 47661.0, "metro_p75": 50915.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 85184.0, "metro_p75": 94366.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 91350.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70121.25, "metro_p50": 77577.0, "metro_p75": 88385.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 70720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 82500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36089.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54860.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 97459.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 70637.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 83880.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31617.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65634.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:55.749398+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/davenport-moline-rock-island-ia-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}