Davenport's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.
3.9%
Metro unemployment (IL side)
Down 1.4 pts YoY; vs 4.1% national rate
-2,100 jobs
Metro nonfarm payroll change
Year-over-year, largest % decline in Illinois
6.48M
Illinois labor force size
Down from 6.57M in March 2026
3.0% vs 3.4%
National wage vs. inflation gap
Weakest wage growth since May 2021
This Month's Takeaways
01
Falling unemployment here reflects fewer workers, not more jobs.
Metro nonfarm payrolls dropped 2,100 positions year-over-year even as the Illinois-side jobless rate fell to 3.9%, a pattern mirroring the statewide dynamic where Illinois's labor force shrank from 6.57 million to 6.48 million since March. A declining rate built on labor force contraction signals a different economic story than one built on job creation.
02
National wage-inflation gap has reopened after two years of gains.
National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% annually in September, its weakest pace since May 2021, against 3.4% inflation — the first sustained real-wage decline after two years of real gains above 1%. Locally, advertised pay for several blue-collar roles (CDL drivers, HVAC technicians) is trending down, suggesting the metro is not insulated from this national purchasing-power squeeze.
03
Manufacturing and healthcare carry the metro's job base, not finance.
Manufacturing employment of 11,406 and education/health services of 13,825 remain the metro's structural anchors, matching the national pattern of healthcare and construction outpacing white-collar sectors while finance and government shed jobs. Commerce leaders assessing business climate should track these hands-on sectors as the more reliable local demand signal this cycle.
04
Illinois capital commitments outpace statewide job creation.
Illinois EDGE tax-credit commitments reached nearly 4,000 jobs and $2.5 billion in Q1 2026 alone, exceeding all of 2025, even as statewide employment forecasts call for Illinois growth of just 0.6% against 2.8% nationally. Large, policy-driven investment announcements may not translate into broad-based local job growth absent matching labor force stability.
Local Economic Conditions
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island's Illinois-side unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in August, down 1.4 percentage points from a year earlier and well below the national 4.1% rate, even as total metro nonfarm employment contracted by 2,100 jobs year-over-year. That divergence — a falling jobless rate alongside shrinking payrolls — is consistent with a contracting local labor force rather than genuine hiring strength, echoing a statewide Illinois pattern in which labor force size dropped from 6,571,000 in March to 6,477,000 in August.
Open Threads in the Data
Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh the fact that a favorable headline unemployment rate here may mask a shrinking available workforce rather than signal labor market tightness from strong demand. Government economists tracking workforce participation should treat the 3.9% figure as a caution flag requiring the labor force denominator, not just the numerator, before drawing conclusions about regional economic health. Consider reviewing local labor force participation trends alongside the unemployment rate before characterizing the metro's momentum as strengthening.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$32,240 |
→ Stable |
1,706 |
| Retail Cashier |
$32,240 |
→ Stable |
492 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$35,299 |
→ Stable |
480 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$75,417 |
↓ Moderate decline |
5,359 |
| Delivery Driver |
$37,264 |
↓ Moderate decline |
1,426 |
| Warehouse Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$41,600 |
→ Stable |
166 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$72,800 |
→ Stable |
298 |
| HVAC Technician |
$69,320 |
↓ Significant decline |
56 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$39,520 |
↑ Moderate increase |
318 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$36,935 |
→ Stable |
388 |
| Operations Manager |
$98,612 |
↑ Moderate increase |
207 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$33,280 |
→ Stable |
48 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$43,448 |
→ Stable |
1,437 |
| Registered Nurse |
$104,733 |
↑ Significant increase |
6,952 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$40,257 |
↑ Moderate increase |
427 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$120,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
223 |
| Data Engineer |
$103,660 |
↓ Significant decline |
84 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$62,066 |
→ Stable |
135 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$61,500 |
→ Stable |
40 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$61,087 |
↑ Significant increase |
21 |
| Business Analyst |
$77,577 |
↓ Significant decline |
116 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$94,522 |
↑ Significant increase |
59 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$47,661 |
↑ Significant increase |
926 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$85,184 |
↑ Moderate increase |
248 |
Industry Snapshot · Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
→ +2.8% |
↑ +31.4% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +30.4% |
↑ +405.3% |
| Retail Trade |
→ −0.9% |
↑ +86.6% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↓ −12.1% |
↑ +169.6% |
| Information |
↑ +43.5% |
↑ +107.9% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +6.6% |
↑ +76.9% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +21.0% |
↑ +164.3% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +52.3% |
↑ +83.0% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ +0.8% |
↑ +23.0% |
| Government |
↑ +78.8% |
↑ +736.2% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Data release to watch
BLS will publish official September 2026 metro-level data on October 28, the first read on whether August's labor force contraction deepened or stabilized. That release will clarify whether the 3.9% unemployment figure reflects a durable trend or a one-month anomaly.
Early indicator
National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions of 60,000 to prior months, a deceleration worth tracking against whether Quad Cities nonfarm employment (down 2,100 year-over-year) stabilizes or extends its decline when new data lands.
Policy-neutral tracking
Trade policy uncertainty is cited by Moody's as a drag on 2026 Illinois employment broadly; metro manufacturing (11,406 jobs) and construction, both exposed to materials costs and cross-border input pricing, warrant monitoring as bare economic indicators, not policy commentary.
Worth watching
Illinois WARN filings have reached 91 notices and 16,782 affected workers year-to-date statewide, concentrated in financial activities and information sectors; whether any filings touch the Quad Cities directly in October will be a near-term signal of whether local stability is holding.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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