{"schema_version": 1, "id": "danville-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 183, "label": "Danville, IL MSA", "slug": "danville-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:48.837045+00:00", "headline": "Danville's steady jobless rate hides two employer exits underneath.", "headline_summary": "Danville MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September even as Hyster-Yale's 220-job relocation and BFG Supply's 35-job closure work through the system, while Vermilion County's broader nonfarm employment grew just 200 jobs year-over-year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Danville MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "vs 6.3% in March (not seasonally adj.), 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Confirmed local job losses, 2026", "value": "~255 jobs", "context": "Hyster-Yale (220) + BFG Supply (35) closures"}, {"label": "Vermilion County nonfarm job growth", "value": "+200 jobs YoY", "context": "to 25,725 total, as of March 2026"}, {"label": "Illinois labor force", "value": "6,477,000", "context": "down from 6,571,000 in March 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Two employer exits mask a steadier headline number.", "body": "The 4.2% metro unemployment rate looks stable, but it sits atop confirmed Hyster-Yale (220 jobs) and BFG Supply (35 jobs) closures still working through 2026. Watch the next two to three months of Vermilion County data for whether the rate absorbs these losses or starts climbing toward March's 6.3% not-seasonally-adjusted peak."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay gains coexist with manufacturing job losses.", "body": "Manufacturing production worker advertised pay is up moderately to $45,234 locally, well above the $39,520 national median, even as the metro's largest manufacturing-adjacent employer exits the market. Divergence suggests remaining manufacturers may be competing harder for a shrinking pool rather than signaling sector expansion."}, {"headline": "Construction labor costs are rising faster than the trade itself is growing nationally.", "body": "Construction laborer advertised pay rose significantly locally to $35,984, outpacing the stable national trend, which is consistent with redevelopment-driven activity following the city's approved economic growth plans. Commerce leaders weighing site development or infrastructure timing should treat this as an early cost signal rather than a hiring one."}, {"headline": "Public and health sectors remain the metro's stabilizing force.", "body": "Private education and health services drove essentially all of Vermilion County's modest year-over-year job gains, mirroring the statewide pattern where this sector anchors growth that would otherwise be flat or negative. Local economic health currently depends disproportionately on this one pillar holding steady."}], "local_conditions": "Danville MSA's 4.2% unemployment rate in September held roughly steady even as the metro absorbs confirmed closures at Hyster-Yale Group (approximately 220 jobs by year-end) and BFG Supply Company (35 jobs in August), a divergence that appears to reflect gradual phase-out timelines rather than labor market resilience. Vermilion County nonfarm employment rose a modest 200 jobs year-over-year to 25,725 as of March, with gains concentrated in private education and health services offsetting declines in professional and business services, underscoring a local economy more dependent on a narrowing set of sectors than state or national figures suggest.", "implications": "Phased employer exits rather than sudden mass layoffs give the metro a narrow window to track where displaced Hyster-Yale and BFG workers land before any skills or spending gap shows up in retail and services activity. Local approval of redevelopment plans signals a civic response already underway, but commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh that manufacturing and distribution capacity is contracting locally even as construction and healthcare advertised pay trend upward. Consider tracking Vermilion County's monthly not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate alongside the Illinois EDGE investment pipeline to gauge whether redevelopment commitments are translating into replacement payrolls before year-end.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Hyster-Yale's phased relocation completes by year-end; watch whether the 220 affected workers appear in Vermilion County's unemployment claims data in October and November or disperse into other regional labor markets."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois' Q1 2026 EDGE tax credit commitments topped $2.5 billion statewide; track whether any announced redevelopment or incentive packages materialize specifically for Danville's vacated industrial sites."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Professional and business services employment in Vermilion County already declined 175 jobs year-over-year; a continued slide alongside manufacturing losses would signal a broader, not isolated, contraction."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest gap since 2021; if that national erosion reaches Danville's retail and service wages, local consumer spending could soften further heading into year-end."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26898.0, "metro_p50": 31782.4, "metro_p75": 32500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27732.0, "metro_p50": 31813.2, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31824.0, "metro_p50": 38438.4, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 76378.6, "metro_p75": 85800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29200.0, "metro_p50": 32251.0, "metro_p75": 39972.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 35984.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63010.0, "metro_p50": 71388.0, "metro_p75": 72290.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38800.0, "metro_p50": 45234.0, "metro_p75": 45234.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25120.0, "metro_p50": 35016.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31111.0, "metro_p50": 31112.0, "metro_p75": 37325.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42120.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34933.25, "metro_p50": 40929.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59195.0, "metro_p50": 71760.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83937.5, "metro_p50": 97091.0, "metro_p75": 107475.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 112123.0, "metro_p50": 151902.4, "metro_p75": 166866.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99155.75, "metro_p50": 140500.0, "metro_p75": 158000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59450.0, "metro_p50": 66543.6, "metro_p75": 76209.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74720.0, "metro_p50": 94000.0, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59424.0, "metro_p50": 61698.0, "metro_p75": 69318.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63558.0, "metro_p50": 67164.0, "metro_p75": 74139.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74505.5, "metro_p50": 98612.4, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41132.0, "metro_p50": 56142.0, "metro_p75": 56189.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 92835.0, "metro_p75": 113254.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 91350.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79854.0, "metro_p50": 94773.0, "metro_p75": 108327.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 50252.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 77324.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 46511.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 49940.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 123300.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 44720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67379.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32229.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65633.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "danville-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "danville-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "danville-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:53.611323+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/danville-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/danville-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}