{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 148, "label": "Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA", "slug": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:32:03.121044+00:00", "headline": "Dallas job growth narrows to one sector as wages lag nation.", "headline_summary": "DFW added 43,100 jobs over the year but more than half came from Professional and Business Services alone, while metro wage growth of 1.8% trailed the national 3.4% pace and unemployment rose to 4.4%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "DFW annual job growth", "value": "1.0%", "context": "43,100 jobs added through August 2026"}, {"label": "DFW wage growth", "value": "1.8%", "context": "vs 3.4% national, 4.5% Texas statewide"}, {"label": "DFW unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "Dallas County; up from 4.2% in Collin County"}, {"label": "Texas labor force growth", "value": "3,600 net", "context": "over 12 months, signaling participation stall"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "One sector is carrying the entire metro's job growth.", "body": "Professional and Business Services accounted for more than half of DFW's 43,100 annual job gains, while Financial Activities, Information, and Manufacturing all lost positions. A metro this reliant on a single sector for net growth faces amplified exposure if that sector cools, a relevant consideration for economic development planning and business recruitment pitches."}, {"headline": "DFW wages are falling behind the national pace.", "body": "Wages and salaries in the metro rose just 1.8% year-over-year, compared to 3.4% nationally and 4.5% statewide \u2014 a gap that may suggest local employers face less competitive pressure to raise pay than their counterparts elsewhere. For commerce leaders, that keeps DFW's cost profile attractive to incoming employers but raises questions about consumer spending resilience among existing residents."}, {"headline": "County-level unemployment is diverging within the same metro.", "body": "Denton County holds the tightest labor market at 4.2% while Collin County posted the sharpest increase, moving from 4.2% to 4.4%. Uneven labor conditions across adjoining counties complicate any single regional narrative and argue for county-specific data when briefing local officials or site-selection prospects."}, {"headline": "Texas-wide labor force stall is a demographic signal worth tracking locally.", "body": "Statewide labor force growth nearly flattened, adding just 3,600 net participants over a full year even as job counts rose, a pattern consistent with slower immigration and population inflows. If DFW mirrors this stall, county economists and chambers may need to recalibrate growth forecasts that assume continued labor force expansion."}], "local_conditions": "Dallas-Fort Worth added 43,100 jobs over the year through August, a 1.0% growth rate, with Professional and Business Services alone contributing 24,700 positions while Financial Activities, Information, and Manufacturing all contracted. Unemployment climbed to 4.4% across the metro's largest counties, and metro wages and salaries rose just 1.8% year-over-year versus 3.4% nationally \u2014 a divergence that, paired with elevated service-sector cost pressures statewide, points to a local economy expanding in scale but losing pricing power for its workforce.", "implications": "Metro job growth concentrated in a single sector while four others shrink signals a narrowing economic base \u2014 a dynamic economic development corps and chambers should track when courting new employers or assessing diversification risk. Wage growth trailing the national rate by nearly two full points, even as Texas posts 4.5% statewide wage gains, suggests DFW's labor cost advantage for business attraction remains intact but its household purchasing power is eroding faster than peers. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluate messaging around regional cost-of-living competitiveness against the risk that stagnant local pay growth dampens consumer spending capacity over the next two quarters.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Professional and Business Services has driven the bulk of DFW's job growth for two straight reporting periods; any deceleration in that sector's 3.1% growth rate would remove the metro's primary growth engine with no clear sector positioned to replace it."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Metro wage growth at 1.8% against 3.4% national and 3.7% CPI inflation compresses household purchasing power further each month this gap persists, a dynamic commerce leaders should factor into local retail and consumer-spending forecasts."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Texas's labor force added only 15,800 workers in September against a 2026 forecast downgrade to 0.9% job growth; watch whether DFW's county-level participation rates show similar stalling in the next two Texas Workforce Commission releases."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Manufacturing's statewide resilience, tied to AI-related construction and energy activity, contrasts with DFW's own 0.5% manufacturing job loss; a divergence worth monitoring for whether AI-infrastructure investment ultimately reaches the metro or concentrates elsewhere in Texas."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 35890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24251.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36192.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29880.0, "metro_p50": 33259.8, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33577.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 79040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33358.0, "metro_p50": 39437.0, "metro_p75": 42695.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26858.25, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33016.0, "metro_p50": 36294.8, "metro_p75": 39341.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35156.75, "metro_p50": 43472.6, "metro_p75": 49119.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56721.0, "metro_p50": 68735.2, "metro_p75": 76034.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85695.0, "metro_p50": 100748.0, "metro_p75": 107356.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111014.0, "metro_p50": 145844.6, "metro_p75": 159420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100484.0, "metro_p50": 128489.8, "metro_p75": 146466.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64020.0, "metro_p50": 76882.8, "metro_p75": 84506.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74237.0, "metro_p50": 96347.6, "metro_p75": 101920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57166.5, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 82592.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 63560.0, "metro_p75": 72627.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 83790.2, "metro_p75": 94766.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31918.0, "metro_p50": 53000.0, "metro_p75": 61680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 107236.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52642.0, "metro_p50": 70473.0, "metro_p75": 88500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83261.25, "metro_p50": 102564.0, "metro_p75": 112728.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 80711.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 97113.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40695.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64013.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 111683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 115056.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 80929.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71215.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67406.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:39.694523+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}