{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 148, "label": "Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA", "slug": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:38.014512+00:00", "headline": "DFW job growth continues even as unemployment climbs.", "headline_summary": "DFW added 54,000 jobs over the year to July even as unemployment rose to 4.6% from 4.1% in February, a combination that points to a metro economy normalizing rather than weakening outright.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "DFW unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "Up from 4.1% in Feb. 2026; peaked 4.6% in July"}, {"label": "DFW annual job growth", "value": "54,000 jobs / 1.3%", "context": "Year ending July 2026, led by Professional Services"}, {"label": "DFW average weekly wage", "value": "$1,785", "context": "Vs. $1,654 U.S. average, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Information sector employment", "value": "-2.8%", "context": "Steepest sector decline in DFW, 2,500 jobs lost"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Job growth and rising unemployment are telling different stories.", "body": "DFW added 54,000 jobs over the year through July, yet the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.6% over the same stretch. That combination is consistent with labor force growth outpacing job creation -- a sign of in-migration and expanding labor supply, not necessarily weakening demand."}, {"headline": "Professional services remain the metro's clearest growth engine.", "body": "The sector added 23,500 jobs, up 3.0% year-over-year, nearly double the metro's overall 1.3% growth rate. Sustained strength here, against a national backdrop where financial activities have shed 129,000 jobs since May 2025, suggests DFW's professional-services base is proving more resilient than the national trend."}, {"headline": "Information sector contraction is a local outlier worth tracking.", "body": "Information jobs fell 2.8% locally, the steepest percentage decline among DFW's ten sectors, even as the metro otherwise outperforms. Whether this reflects national tech-sector consolidation (Amazon, Meta, Verizon, and Oracle all appear in 2026 national WARN filings) or something metro-specific carries different implications for workforce development planning."}, {"headline": "DFW wages still outpace the nation, but the gap is narrowing.", "body": "First-quarter 2026 average weekly wages in DFW stood at $1,785 versus $1,654 nationally, yet metro wage growth is now trailing the national rate for the first time this cycle. That narrowing, paired with commercial vacancy pressure, is consistent with a market shifting from expansion to recalibration."}], "local_conditions": "Dallas-Fort Worth's unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in July before easing to 4.4% in August, up from 4.1% in February, even as the metro added 54,000 jobs over the year with Professional and Business Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Education and Health Services driving the gains. Rising joblessness alongside continued job creation, elevated commercial vacancy, and an Information sector contraction of 2.8% point to a metro economy normalizing from its post-pandemic expansion rather than overheating or contracting outright.", "implications": "Divergence between steady payroll growth and a rising unemployment rate suggests labor supply is expanding faster than job creation, consistent with continued population inflows and corporate relocations -- DFW captured 410 of Texas' 1,406 qualifying corporate investment projects in 2025. For commerce leaders, this points to a more available local workforce and a business climate still attracting capital even as it cools from earlier highs; for government economists, it signals a transition phase worth distinguishing from genuine softening. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether the unemployment uptick stabilizes or continues trending upward before drawing conclusions about the metro's overall trajectory.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether DFW's unemployment rate, which rose from 4.1% to 4.6% between February and July before easing to 4.4% in August, stabilizes or resumes climbing. A sustained reversal would suggest the metro has moved past its normalization phase."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Information sector job losses (down 2.8% over the year) warrant tracking against national technology-sector layoff activity, including WARN filings from Amazon, Meta, Verizon, and Oracle, to determine whether DFW is insulated from or exposed to continued national tech contraction."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Commercial real estate vacancy is cited alongside slower wage growth as a sign of market normalization. Movement in vacancy rates over the next two months will help clarify whether corporate investment activity, which brought 410 qualifying projects to DFW in 2025, is sustaining office and industrial demand."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "County-level unemployment data (Denton 3.7%, Dallas 3.8%, Tarrant 3.9%, Collin 3.9%, as of the most recent available release) should update this fall. A widening or narrowing gap across counties will signal whether labor market pressure is concentrated or metro-wide."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 35589.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 27560.0, "metro_p75": 29674.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31164.0, "metro_p50": 35589.0, "metro_p75": 38363.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55447.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 91884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29289.0, "metro_p50": 32608.6, "metro_p75": 37096.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33148.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77383.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33611.0, "metro_p50": 39416.0, "metro_p75": 42869.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26717.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32974.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 38752.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34624.25, "metro_p50": 42704.0, "metro_p75": 48826.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56714.5, "metro_p50": 68457.0, "metro_p75": 75335.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85722.5, "metro_p50": 100905.0, "metro_p75": 107992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109000.0, "metro_p50": 143863.0, "metro_p75": 157182.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100484.0, "metro_p50": 128155.0, "metro_p75": 145961.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63885.0, "metro_p50": 75329.0, "metro_p75": 84239.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73736.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 101920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56522.25, "metro_p50": 72402.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52087.75, "metro_p50": 63766.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74646.5, "metro_p50": 83312.0, "metro_p75": 94688.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32086.0, "metro_p50": 54000.0, "metro_p75": 61785.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68027.25, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 106154.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54729.25, "metro_p50": 82613.6, "metro_p75": 88500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83291.0, "metro_p50": 102184.0, "metro_p75": 111967.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 97410.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40524.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63722.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 113223.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 113031.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81893.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71421.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69307.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:52.201238+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dallas-fort-worth-arlington-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}