{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cumberland-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 149, "label": "Cumberland, MD-WV MSA", "slug": "cumberland-md-wv-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:48.272752+00:00", "headline": "Cumberland's jobless rate still outpaces Maryland's economic recovery.", "headline_summary": "Allegany County's 6.10% unemployment rate runs nearly two points above Maryland's 4.1% statewide figure, even as skilled-trade and logistics pay locally moves in the opposite direction from professional-services pay.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Allegany County unemployment", "value": "6.10%", "context": "vs 4.1% Maryland, 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Maryland labor force participation", "value": "63.7%", "context": "10-year low, down from 63.8% prior month"}, {"label": "Maryland YoY payroll change", "value": "-5,500 jobs", "context": "Over 12 months despite early-2026 gains"}, {"label": "Maryland professional/tech services losses", "value": "-11,500 jobs", "context": "Since January 2025, federal contractor exposure"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Cumberland's jobless rate gap with Maryland is the story, not the state average.", "body": "Allegany County's 6.10% unemployment rate sits roughly two points above Maryland's 4.1% and the national 4.1% rate, suggesting the metro has not shared equally in the state's early-2026 job gains. Commerce leaders citing statewide figures risk overstating local momentum to press or investors."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and logistics pay are moving opposite professional services locally.", "body": "Warehouse/fulfillment pay rose significantly to $43,680 and construction laborer pay rose moderately, while electrician pay fell significantly to $64,575 and financial analyst and accountant pay each dropped significantly. Divergence this sharp points to uneven sector-level demand rather than a uniform wage trend across the local economy."}, {"headline": "Data lag is itself a local economic signal worth disclosing.", "body": "BLS metro-level data for Cumberland has not been updated past late 2024/early 2025 in publicly indexed releases, forcing reliance on county and state proxies. Government economists and press should treat any 'current' Cumberland-specific unemployment figure with explicit caveats about data vintage."}, {"headline": "Federal contractor exposure links Cumberland to a statewide structural trend.", "body": "Maryland's professional/scientific/technical services sector \u2014 the category covering federal contractors \u2014 has lost 11,500 jobs since January 2025, the largest year-over-year state job loss in the country. Western Maryland's smaller commerce base likely feels this indirectly through reduced contractor and supplier activity even without direct headquarters presence."}], "local_conditions": "Allegany County's unemployment rate stood at 6.10% as of the most recent county-level reading, well above both Maryland's 4.1% and the national 4.1% rate, consistent with a metro economy more exposed to federal contracting pullback and slower private-sector momentum than the state as a whole. Statewide forces are shaping local conditions directly: Maryland's labor force participation rate fell to a 10-year low of 63.7% in August, and professional/scientific/technical services employment \u2014 the category tied to federal contractors \u2014 has shed 11,500 jobs since January 2025, a pressure line that extends into Western Maryland's smaller commerce base.", "implications": "Local economic data for Cumberland proper lags the state and national release cycle, which means commerce leaders and economic development officials are effectively planning against Maryland-level proxies rather than metro-specific numbers \u2014 a gap worth flagging when making claims about local momentum to press or investors. Advertised pay softening in several metro roles (electricians down significantly, financial analysts and accountants down significantly) alongside gains in warehouse/fulfillment and construction labor pay is consistent with a local economy where skilled trades and logistics are tightening faster than professional services. Commerce leaders should consider framing any public statements on local business climate around sector divergence rather than a single aggregate number, given how much the county-level unemployment gap with the state obscures variation across industries.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS is due to release more current Cumberland MSA-level unemployment and payroll figures in coming weeks; watch whether the metro's gap with the 4.1% state and national rates narrows or widens once fresher data arrives."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Maryland's labor force participation rate hit a 10-year low of 63.7% in August; a continued decline would tighten available local labor supply even amid soft hiring, a dynamic relevant to any commerce leader assessing expansion feasibility."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings dropped 48% in affected workers year-over-year, but recent notices (PepsiCo Hyattsville, Amentum Prince George's) concentrate in central Maryland; monitor whether similar notices reach Allegany or Washington County employers."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021; if that gap persists through Q4, local retail and hospitality spending \u2014 already showing soft advertised pay in food service and cashier roles \u2014 could feel it first."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26351.0, "metro_p50": 31491.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29492.0, "metro_p50": 31210.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42120.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62669.0, "metro_p50": 87100.0, "metro_p75": 98000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28705.5, "metro_p50": 32844.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32760.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57121.0, "metro_p50": 64575.0, "metro_p75": 73812.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 36994.0, "metro_p75": 37967.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35007.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30508.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35100.0, "metro_p50": 44460.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 41881.0, "metro_p75": 44917.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64545.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84482.25, "metro_p50": 107393.0, "metro_p75": 119090.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 114890.0, "metro_p50": 120000.0, "metro_p75": 134128.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 107488.0, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 160000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52749.75, "metro_p50": 54041.0, "metro_p75": 70258.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63476.5, "metro_p50": 81900.0, "metro_p75": 88236.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 79108.2, "metro_p75": 87618.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 67817.0, "metro_p75": 79053.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71968.0, "metro_p50": 95900.0, "metro_p75": 101693.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39817.5, "metro_p50": 58763.0, "metro_p75": 58763.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57235.5, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 74151.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 51396.8, "metro_p75": 67000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 89510.0, "metro_p50": 110871.0, "metro_p75": 122510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 42416.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 93857.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 32765.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45978.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 62741.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62489.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70271.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "cumberland-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "cumberland-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "cumberland-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:50.557957+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cumberland-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cumberland-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}