{"schema_version": 1, "id": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 142, "label": "College Station-Bryan, TX MSA", "slug": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:23:22.519560+00:00", "headline": "College Station hospitality jobs shrink as unemployment hits 3.5%.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment fell to 3.5% even as leisure and hospitality employment dropped 3% year-over-year, while local line cook pay slid to $30,703 against a $37,421 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Among Texas's lowest, down from 4.3% in July"}, {"label": "Hospitality employment change", "value": "-3%", "context": "Year-over-year, metro leisure/hospitality sector"}, {"label": "Texas leisure/hospitality jobs lost", "value": "-1,700", "context": "Statewide, October 2026"}, {"label": "Line cook advertised pay", "value": "$30,703", "context": "Metro median, vs $37,421 national"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Line cook pay is falling locally while the role gets harder to fill nationally.", "body": "Metro line cook advertised pay dropped moderately to a $30,703 median, well below the $37,421 national median, even as BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for waiters. Wage softness here looks inconsistent with national demand signals and may understate what's needed to compete for back-of-house talent as turnover persists."}, {"headline": "General manager pay is climbing while shift manager pay slides.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay rose moderately to $60,000, above the $59,724 national median, while Shift Manager pay fell moderately to $28,389, well under the $33,024 national figure. Diverging trajectories suggest operators are concentrating compensation investment at the top of the management ladder, leaving the frontline supervisory tier exposed to turnover risk."}, {"headline": "Metro hospitality job losses mask a labor market still favoring workers.", "body": "Leisure and hospitality employment fell 3% year-over-year even as metro unemployment held at 3.5%, among the lowest in the state. That combination is consistent with workers leaving restaurant jobs for opportunities elsewhere, raising the stakes on retention over recruitment."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation changes the math on side-work staffing.", "body": "Texas no longer enforces the 80/20/30 threshold, letting operators pay the $2.13 tipped base for cleaning and stocking duties without triggering full minimum wage. That shift could lower effective front-of-house labor costs during slow periods, but may also widen pay equity gaps between tipped and non-tipped staff that compensation teams should document for compliance purposes."}], "local_conditions": "College Station-Bryan's unemployment rate sits at 3.5% as of September, among the lowest in Texas and down from 4.3% in July, even as leisure and hospitality payrolls fell 3% year-over-year and leisure/hospitality statewide shed 1,700 positions in October. A tight overall labor market combined with sector-specific softness suggests hospitality employers are competing for workers against a backdrop of low metro-wide joblessness, while university-calendar swings continue to distort month-to-month hospitality staffing comparisons.", "implications": "Falling hospitality headcount alongside a 3.5% metro unemployment rate points to a retention problem: operators losing staff are likely struggling to backfill in a market where workers have options elsewhere. Elimination of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in Texas gives operators room to shift side-work hours onto the $2.13 tipped base without the 20% threshold, which could ease front-of-house labor cost pressure even as back-of-house cook and line roles remain structurally harder to fill. Consider reviewing whether current scheduling practices take advantage of the 80/20 rule change before assuming across-the-board wage increases are the only lever for managing labor cost as a share of revenue.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Seasonal signal", "body": "Texas A&M's spring semester return typically lifts College Station hospitality employment; watch whether Q1 2027 staffing rebounds outpace the 3% year-over-year decline seen this fall, which would indicate turnover losses are being recovered."}, {"category": "Policy follow-through", "body": "Monitor how quickly local operators adjust scheduling and wage structures following the 80/20 rule's elimination \u2014 early movers restructuring side-work hours around the $2.13 tipped base may set a new regional pay pattern for front-of-house roles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Shift manager and line cook advertised pay are both trending down locally against rising national benchmarks; a widening gap could accelerate losses of mid-tier talent to neighboring Texas metros like Austin or Houston."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide leisure/hospitality job losses of 1,700 positions in October haven't yet shown up as a local hiring surge; track whether displaced regional talent begins appearing in College Station candidate pools over the next two months."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 38763.0, "metro_p75": 45050.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42175.0, "metro_p50": 56174.8, "metro_p75": 59469.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22858.0, "metro_p50": 25479.2, "metro_p75": 26000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30703.0, "metro_p75": 33713.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49074.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28537.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38825.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25407.0, "metro_p50": 28389.4, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro unemployment rate at 3.5% in September, among lowest in Texas"}, {"source_name": "KBTX", "source_url": null, "statement": "Leisure and hospitality sector employment down 3% year-over-year locally"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew 80/20 tipped wage rule in Texas, October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment growth of 12% through 2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas leisure/hospitality employment declined 1,700 positions in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "KBTX", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bryan-College Station unemployment rate history (4.3% July, 3.5% September)"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:16.178137+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/college-station-bryan-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/college-station-bryan-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}