{"schema_version": 1, "id": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 142, "label": "College Station-Bryan, TX MSA", "slug": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:34.762478+00:00", "headline": "Bryan-College Station unemployment leaps to 5.6% as sales soften.", "headline_summary": "Local joblessness jumped from 4.3% to 5.6% in a month and taxable sales declined in tandem, even as Brazos County posted the strongest wage growth of any large Texas county at 6.0%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "5.6%", "context": "Up from 4.3% in August; pre-pandemic baseline ~2.8%"}, {"label": "Two-week unemployment claims", "value": "771 filings", "context": "Late Aug\u2013early Sept spike, Texas A&M PERC"}, {"label": "Brazos County wage growth", "value": "+6.0% YoY", "context": "Highest among Texas's large counties, Q3 2025"}, {"label": "Employed persons, metro", "value": "143,662", "context": "Down from 145,526 in June 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment spike outpaces anything seen since before the pandemic.", "body": "The jump from 4.3% to 5.6% within a month, against a pre-pandemic baseline near 2.8%, is a magnitude of change that warrants scrutiny of seasonal factors tied to the academic calendar before being read as a structural downturn. Government economists should watch whether the claims surge concentrated in a specific sector or employer cluster."}, {"headline": "Wages are rising even as jobs disappear \u2014 a telling divergence.", "body": "Brazos County's 6.0% weekly wage growth outpacing every other large Texas county, even as employment fell by nearly 1,900 workers between June and July, is consistent with a market where available workers are being paid more for scarcer positions rather than broad-based prosperity. That pattern typically reflects compositional shifts \u2014 fewer, higher-paid jobs remaining \u2014 rather than genuine wage-driven consumer strength."}, {"headline": "Falling taxable sales alongside rising joblessness is a dual-indicator warning.", "body": "Local taxable sales declined in the same window that employment fell and unemployment claims spiked, a convergence that historically signals consumer pullback rather than a one-off data anomaly. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing should treat this as the more decision-relevant signal than the wage figures alone."}, {"headline": "Brazos County's public payroll moves buck the national government retrenchment trend.", "body": "National data show government payrolls down 17,000 in September and shrinking by 216,000 over the past year, yet Brazos County approved compensation adjustments benefiting about 17% of its workforce in June. Local public-sector stability may be acting as a partial offset to private-sector softness, a dynamic worth tracking for its role in cushioning the metro's overall labor market."}], "local_conditions": "College Station-Bryan's local unemployment rate jumped from 4.3% in August to 5.6% by late September, with 771 unemployment claims filed in a single two-week span \u2014 a deterioration that coincides with falling taxable sales and a drop in employed persons from 145,526 in June to 143,662 in July, per Texas A&M's Private Enterprise Research Center. Brazos County wage growth remains a bright spot, posting the largest average weekly wage increase among Texas's large counties at 6.0% year-over-year, suggesting the softening is concentrated in labor demand rather than compensation levels.", "implications": "Rising unemployment alongside falling taxable sales points to softening local consumer demand even as wages hold up, a combination that commerce leaders should read as a near-term caution signal on discretionary business investment rather than a labor-cost problem. Public-sector stability remains intact \u2014 Brazos County's recent compensation adjustments for roughly 17% of its workforce suggest local government is not retrenching even as private hiring activity cools. Current conditions suggest monitoring taxable sales and claims data over the next one to two reporting cycles before drawing conclusions about whether this is a Texas A&M academic-calendar effect or a broader metro slowdown.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether October's unemployment claims normalize toward the historical 2.8%-4% range or hold near 5.6%; a second consecutive elevated reading would suggest the spike reflects more than a seasonal Texas A&M enrollment or staffing cycle."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Taxable sales trends over the next two reporting cycles will clarify whether consumer pullback is metro-specific or tracks the national wage-inflation squeeze, where wage growth (3.0%) now trails inflation (3.4%) for the first time in two years."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Texas's broader manufacturing and data-center-driven expansion, and the Dallas Fed's upgraded 2026 state growth forecast to 2.0%, have not yet shown up in local hiring data \u2014 divergence from the state trend is itself a signal for economic development planning."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National WARN notices remain elevated with Amazon, Meta, Oracle and Tyson Foods among filers; no comparable large-scale local filings have surfaced yet, but commerce leaders should monitor whether regional logistics or manufacturing layoffs reach the Brazos Valley given the sector's 69 statewide transportation notices."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24686.0, "metro_p50": 33234.0, "metro_p75": 37633.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23258.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 31000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36338.8, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52432.0, "metro_p50": 74642.0, "metro_p75": 86225.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28772.0, "metro_p50": 33475.0, "metro_p75": 38619.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30914.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35247.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55917.0, "metro_p50": 67061.8, "metro_p75": 74569.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30265.0, "metro_p50": 35429.2, "metro_p75": 38315.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34829.25, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 42535.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26318.0, "metro_p50": 29760.8, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29695.0, "metro_p50": 34308.8, "metro_p75": 44348.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28621.0, "metro_p50": 38994.4, "metro_p75": 44492.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55882.0, "metro_p50": 63246.0, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81244.0, "metro_p50": 97195.0, "metro_p75": 112171.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119800.0, "metro_p50": 154055.0, "metro_p75": 171031.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 146471.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59364.25, "metro_p50": 71175.2, "metro_p75": 79596.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72392.0, "metro_p50": 94472.0, "metro_p75": 102262.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50820.0, "metro_p50": 82355.0, "metro_p75": 88464.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57221.8, "metro_p75": 70085.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46999.0, "metro_p50": 60501.0, "metro_p75": 64012.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 94913.6, "metro_p75": 117000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83690.0, "metro_p50": 98965.0, "metro_p75": 111635.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 85000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 109000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 66563.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 72000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 123300.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 109990.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 91294.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 73131.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67574.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "college-station-bryan-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:36.833885+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/college-station-bryan-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/college-station-bryan-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}