{"schema_version": 1, "id": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 121, "label": "CO NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "co-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:26:43.984525+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Colorado's labor gap: a shrinking workforce alongside steady job counts.", "headline_summary": "Colorado's labor force participation rate fell to 65.2% \u2014 its lowest since 1979 \u2014 even as the state added 2,400 jobs in September, with nonmetro county unemployment ranging from 2.7% in Yuma to 8.0% in Costilla.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Statewide labor force participation", "value": "65.2%", "context": "Lowest since September 1979"}, {"label": "County unemployment range (Aug. 2026)", "value": "2.7%\u20138.0%", "context": "Yuma County vs. Costilla County"}, {"label": "Colorado unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "Highest since May 2025"}, {"label": "Colorado labor force, year-over-year change", "value": "-75,000", "context": "62% of exits are workers age 55+"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Colorado's story is dispersion across counties.", "body": "An 8.0% unemployment rate in Costilla County alongside 2.7% in Yuma County shows nonmetro conditions vary more by local industry mix than by any single statewide trend. Commerce leaders drawing on state-level headlines risk missing which specific counties are tightening and which are loosening."}, {"headline": "Record-low labor force participation outpaces local job creation.", "body": "Colorado's participation rate sits at its lowest level since 1979 even as the state added jobs in September, a gap consistent with retirements and demographic exit among workers leaving the labor force. Nonmetro counties with older age profiles are likely feeling this constraint more acutely than the Front Range."}, {"headline": "Advertised wages for frontline nonmetro roles are rising against a soft national comparison.", "body": "Warehouse/fulfillment pay ($41,875) and construction laborer pay ($43,680) both trend up locally while national figures hold stable, consistent with tighter local labor supply as the primary driver. This divergence is a useful local economic indicator independent of any single employer's hiring plans."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability offers a counterweight to private-sector unevenness.", "body": "Statewide forecasts point to government and education/health services as the steadiest job-growth sectors in 2026, even as professional and technical services and leisure and hospitality post declines. For nonmetro economies with a large public-sector or institutional employer base, this suggests relative stability in overall economic footing even if private employment growth is sluggish."}], "local_conditions": "Colorado's nonmetropolitan counties operate against a state backdrop of labor force participation at 65.2% \u2014 the lowest since 1979 \u2014 with statewide unemployment at 4.1% in September, its highest reading since May 2025. County-level dispersion remains wide, with Costilla County at 8.0% unemployment against Yuma County at 2.7% as of August, pointing to uneven exposure across nonmetro economies tied to agriculture, tourism, and resource-sector cycles that vary from county to county.", "implications": "Wide county-level unemployment variance signals that nonmetro Colorado is not one labor market but several, which complicates any single read on business expansion conditions across a multi-county trade area or chamber membership base. Statewide labor force contraction \u2014 driven substantially by retirements among workers 55 and older \u2014 suggests that even nonmetro employers reporting low local unemployment may face a shrinking available workforce even where demand stays steady. Local economic development bodies may want to evaluate workforce data at the county level before drawing conclusions about business climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Scheduled data release", "body": "BLS state employment data for October publishes November 20 and metro-level data December 2 \u2014 the first concrete read on whether nonmetro Colorado's participation decline deepened or stabilized heading into winter."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the 62% share of labor-force exits attributed to workers 55 and older holds steady or accelerates; a faster pace would tighten nonmetro labor supply further regardless of local demand conditions."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Slower international migration tied to immigration enforcement has been cited by state economists as a structural factor in labor force growth; nonmetro counties with agriculture or seasonal-labor dependence may be more exposed to this dynamic than metro Colorado."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Colorado's $6.74 million federal workforce training grant for aerospace, advanced manufacturing, and emerging tech (announced October 2026) may funnel resources toward nonmetro training partners; local economic development corps should track eligibility and disbursement timing."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30980.0, "metro_p50": 37295.0, "metro_p75": 42000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31772.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 39686.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41875.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64362.0, "metro_p50": 82972.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30870.0, "metro_p50": 34626.6, "metro_p75": 37299.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59800.0, "metro_p50": 71660.0, "metro_p75": 75774.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32029.0, "metro_p50": 36025.0, "metro_p75": 38841.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35828.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31333.0, "metro_p50": 33224.0, "metro_p75": 36982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37502.0, "metro_p50": 47497.0, "metro_p75": 53560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36731.0, "metro_p50": 46371.0, "metro_p75": 52285.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62368.5, "metro_p50": 76555.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85377.0, "metro_p50": 105542.0, "metro_p75": 113886.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 110600.0, "metro_p50": 152825.0, "metro_p75": 167500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99183.0, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58232.5, "metro_p50": 69189.4, "metro_p75": 76970.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72629.0, "metro_p50": 92088.8, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53668.0, "metro_p50": 81500.0, "metro_p75": 88000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43361.5, "metro_p50": 56874.6, "metro_p75": 69240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 90000.0, "metro_p50": 97189.2, "metro_p75": 107901.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47723.75, "metro_p50": 60650.0, "metro_p75": 65193.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63181.0, "metro_p50": 97665.8, "metro_p75": 119700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 52000.0, "metro_p75": 52210.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82286.0, "metro_p50": 97511.6, "metro_p75": 110500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72895.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 109396.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 119700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 96859.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 92936.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 79813.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 42692.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69945.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Colorado Department of Labor and Employment", "source_url": null, "statement": "Colorado labor force participation at 65.2%, lowest since 1979"}, {"source_name": "Colorado Department of Labor and Employment", "source_url": null, "statement": "County unemployment range: Costilla 8.0%, Yuma 2.7%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / CDLE", "source_url": null, "statement": "Colorado statewide unemployment rose to 4.1% in September"}, {"source_name": "Common Sense Institute", "source_url": null, "statement": "Colorado labor force down 75,000 year-over-year, 62% of exits age 55+"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS metro-level October data scheduled for December 2, 2026"}, {"source_name": "Colorado workforce development announcement", "source_url": null, "statement": "$6.74 million federal workforce training grant announced October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:11.407895+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}