{"schema_version": 1, "id": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 121, "label": "CO NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "co-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:57.438023+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Colorado data gap masks a statewide cooling trend.", "headline_summary": "Colorado's unemployment rate rose to 4.0% in August with labor force participation down to 67.4% from 68.1% a year earlier, though no official nonmetro-specific figures exist until BLS publishes county data October 20.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Colorado unemployment rate", "value": "4.0%", "context": "Up from 3.9% in July; national rate 4.1%"}, {"label": "Labor force participation", "value": "67.4%", "context": "Down from 68.1% a year earlier (Aug 2025)"}, {"label": "Statewide job growth projection, 2026", "value": "0.6%", "context": "17,500 jobs; well below historical norms"}, {"label": "Colorado WARN notices, 2026", "value": "42 notices / 5,059 workers", "context": "Down 11% from 2025 statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Statewide data, not nonmetro-specific, is the only lens available this month.", "body": "No official BLS aggregate exists for Colorado's nonmetropolitan counties, and September figures won't post until October 20. Treat this month's read as directional context drawn from the state trend, not a confirmed local figure."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation decline may matter more than the unemployment tick-up.", "body": "Statewide participation fell from 68.1% to 67.4% year-over-year, a signal tied to slower population growth and reduced international migration. For nonmetro counties already facing thinner labor pools, this trend is consistent with a shrinking available workforce independent of job demand."}, {"headline": "Wage growth outpaced inflation in 2025, but the gap may be closing.", "body": "Colorado's overall price level sits roughly 30% above pre-pandemic levels, with 2026 price increases accelerating on an energy shock. If nonmetro wage gains track the state's slowing pattern, real purchasing power gains from last year could erode faster in rural markets with historically lower wage bases."}, {"headline": "Out-migration makes Colorado an outlier among peer states.", "body": "Net domestic migration turned negative in 2025 \u2014 the only peer state to see this reversal. Rural counties, often more exposed to population shifts than metro cores, warrant particular attention as this plays out in labor supply and local consumer demand."}], "local_conditions": "Colorado's statewide unemployment rate climbed to 4.0% in August, up from 3.9% in July, with 1,400 nonfarm jobs lost statewide as official BLS data for nonmetro counties specifically has not yet published for this period. Rural and smaller Colorado counties continue to carry average weekly wages below the national average even as state labor force participation slipped to 67.4% from 68.1% a year earlier, consistent with softening labor supply tied to slower population growth and reduced net migration.", "implications": "Statewide softening \u2014 three straight months of job losses and a rising jobless rate \u2014 suggests nonmetro Colorado communities are likely seeing similarly constrained momentum, though county-level confirmation will lag until BLS publishes October 20. For commerce leaders, this points to a cautious near-term business climate: labor force participation decline limits the local customer and worker base simultaneously, while statewide wage growth above inflation in 2025 offers a partial offset to consumer purchasing power. Consider cross-referencing county-level wage and employment releases from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment once available before drawing firm conclusions about this specific nonmetro footprint.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS state and metro-level employment data for September 2026 publishes October 20 \u2014 the first real opportunity to confirm whether nonmetro Colorado counties are tracking the statewide job-loss pattern or diverging from it."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force participation has fallen for four consecutive quarters. Watch whether county-level data due later this fall shows nonmetro counties losing workforce faster than metro Colorado, which would compound existing wage-level gaps."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Colorado projects just 0.6% job growth statewide for 2026, with education/health services and government as the lead sectors. Nonmetro economies disproportionately reliant on government and public-sector payrolls may see this as a stabilizing \u2014 not a warning \u2014 signal."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "The Leeds Business Confidence Index rose 1.3 points but remains below the neutral 50 mark. A continued climb toward neutral over the next two quarters would mark the first genuine sentiment turnaround since the current slowdown began."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30622.5, "metro_p50": 37154.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31396.75, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 40955.4, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63000.0, "metro_p50": 81095.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30902.0, "metro_p50": 34834.0, "metro_p75": 37201.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38135.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59800.0, "metro_p50": 71247.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31873.0, "metro_p50": 36040.8, "metro_p75": 39379.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35748.0, "metro_p50": 39925.0, "metro_p75": 44810.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31332.75, "metro_p50": 34698.4, "metro_p75": 36982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37367.0, "metro_p50": 47252.0, "metro_p75": 54834.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35734.0, "metro_p50": 44927.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61451.25, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85403.0, "metro_p50": 105706.6, "metro_p75": 113847.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111400.0, "metro_p50": 152781.8, "metro_p75": 167500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99222.0, "metro_p50": 145651.6, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58706.5, "metro_p50": 71326.4, "metro_p75": 79596.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72629.5, "metro_p50": 93619.0, "metro_p75": 102218.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54641.0, "metro_p50": 82355.0, "metro_p75": 88192.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 58811.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78593.0, "metro_p50": 95453.2, "metro_p75": 103143.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48091.5, "metro_p50": 60851.0, "metro_p75": 65163.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62366.0, "metro_p50": 96000.0, "metro_p75": 118560.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 52224.8, "metro_p75": 53015.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82747.0, "metro_p50": 98506.2, "metro_p75": 111554.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 75172.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 107924.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 48880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 120100.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 105894.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 90701.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 77614.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 42908.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70006.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:34.006279+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/co-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}