{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cleveland-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 129, "label": "Cleveland, TN MSA", "slug": "cleveland-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:44.116414+00:00", "headline": "Cleveland tightens to 3.3% jobless while Crew pay slides.", "headline_summary": "Bradley County unemployment fell to 3.3% in May, yet advertised Crew pay in the metro dropped to a $25,884 median, suggesting operators are banking stabilizing applicant flow rather than defending entry-level rates.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Bradley County unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "vs 3.4% TN, 4.1% US (May 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro Crew advertised pay", "value": "$25,884", "context": "Down, moderate; national median $29,839 stable"}, {"label": "National food-service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026 (BLS)"}, {"label": "TN tipped minimum wage", "value": "$2.13/hr", "context": "Unchanged; statewide preemption, no local variance"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Entry-level pay is softening faster than the labor market itself.", "body": "Crew pay fell to a $25,884 metro median while Bradley County unemployment sits at a tight 3.3%, a combination that doesn't typically hold without an offsetting increase in candidate supply or hours. Operators relying on continued wage restraint for Crew roles should watch fill times closely before assuming the trend persists."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager comp is pulling away from the core GM track.", "body": "Catering Manager advertised pay climbed to $53,103 (up, significant) while Restaurant Manager/GM pay fell to $53,500 (down, moderate) \u2014 the two roles are now nearly at parity locally despite very different scopes. This pattern is consistent with operators prioritizing event and catering revenue growth over traditional store-level management investment."}, {"headline": "Tennessee's tip-credit structure is a margin advantage with compliance strings attached.", "body": "The $2.13 tipped minimum and statewide wage preemption keep Cleveland's labor cost structure favorable relative to states raising base and tipped minimums, like Florida's move to $15.00/$11.98 effective late September. That advantage erodes quickly if tip pools improperly include managers or unpaid side work, exposing back pay at the full $7.25 rate."}, {"headline": "National turnover relief may not have reached this metro yet.", "body": "Falling accommodation-and-food-service job openings nationally point to cooling voluntary turnover, but Line Cook and Server pay in Cleveland remain flat rather than showing the retention-driven increases seen in tighter peer metros. Current conditions suggest local retention investment, not pay cuts, may be the better lever while national quit rates settle."}], "local_conditions": "Bradley County's unemployment rate held at 3.3% as of the latest reading, down from earlier in 2026 and tighter than both the Tennessee (3.4%) and national (4.1%) averages, even as statewide food-prep and serving occupations added 8,456 positions year-over-year. Softer national accommodation-and-food-service job openings \u2014 down from 916,000 to 673,000 since January \u2014 appear to be easing the hiring frenzy that defined prior years, giving Cleveland-area operators a rare window where candidate flow and retention pressure both look more manageable.", "implications": "Falling local unemployment alongside declining advertised Crew pay ($25,884 metro median, down) suggests operators are testing whether a cooler national hiring market extends to entry-level roles here, but Tennessee's $2.13 tipped minimum and flat federal wage floor mean any further downward pressure on base pay carries real compliance exposure if tip credits aren't properly documented. Catering Manager pay rose significantly ($53,103, up) against a stable national figure, consistent with demand shifting toward event and off-premise revenue as a margin lever rather than core dine-in staffing. Consider reviewing tip-credit documentation and manager-role tip-pool exclusions now, before any wage-policy scrutiny intensifies, while benchmarking Crew and Server pay against actual fill rates rather than assuming continued softening.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Bradley County's 3.3% unemployment rate continues falling toward 2024 lows; a further drop would tighten back-of-house hiring just as national job openings data suggests the opposite trend elsewhere."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Tennessee's 10 Food & Hospitality WARN filings affecting 1,534 workers over the past two years is a modest but real signal \u2014 watch whether any Cleveland-area closures add to that count as fall seasonal staffing shifts take hold."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Catering Manager's significant pay increase is worth tracking against Q4 event bookings; if the gap over GM pay widens further, it may signal a structural reallocation of management compensation budgets toward off-premise revenue."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Healthcare support occupations are projected as Bradley County's fastest-growing job category, a direct competitor for the same hourly labor pool restaurants draw from. Monitor whether local hourly pay for Crew and Server roles needs to adjust to stay competitive against healthcare support openings."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 38459.0, "metro_p75": 39464.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 53103.0, "metro_p75": 65808.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 25884.0, "metro_p75": 26222.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26520.0, "metro_p50": 29874.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43854.0, "metro_p50": 53500.0, "metro_p75": 55762.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25837.5, "metro_p50": 28588.0, "metro_p75": 29472.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25215.75, "metro_p50": 28714.0, "metro_p75": 29788.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "cleveland-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "cleveland-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:32.393834+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cleveland-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cleveland-tn-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}