{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cleveland-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 129, "label": "Cleveland, TN MSA", "slug": "cleveland-tn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:20.736408+00:00", "headline": "Cleveland, TN holds steady as trades outpace office pay", "headline_summary": "Bradley County unemployment sits near 3.3%-3.9%, below the 4.1% national rate, while local electrician and CDL driver pay rose significantly even as administrative assistant pay fell.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Bradley County unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% U.S., 3.4% Tennessee (May-Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest wage pace since May 2021"}, {"label": "Tennessee annual job growth", "value": "0.9% (2026 proj.)", "context": "Down from ~60,000/yr historical average"}, {"label": "Tennessee WARN-affected workers", "value": "5,982+", "context": "Manufacturing, transport, automotive led filings"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Skilled trades and logistics pay are pulling away from office roles.", "body": "Electrician, HVAC, and CDL driver pay posted significant local gains while administrative assistant and accountant pay fell, mirroring the national split between hands-on and white-collar labor demand. That divergence signals where local economic activity is concentrated \u2014 construction, transport, and industrial maintenance \u2014 rather than broad-based expansion across the business basket."}, {"headline": "Low local unemployment coexists with statewide growth deceleration.", "body": "Bradley County unemployment near 3.3%-3.9% sits below both national (4.1%) and state (3.4%) benchmarks, yet Tennessee's overall job growth has slowed to roughly a third of its historical annual average. A tight local labor pool paired with slower statewide momentum may suggest the metro is holding steady on fundamentals even as the broader growth engine cools."}, {"headline": "Warehouse and delivery pay softened even as trucking pay climbed.", "body": "Warehouse/fulfillment pay and delivery driver pay both moved down locally while CDL truck driver pay rose moderately, an uneven signal within the same logistics corridor. This may reflect differentiated demand for licensed, long-haul capacity versus local last-mile and fulfillment labor, worth watching as a read on regional freight and distribution activity."}, {"headline": "Healthcare support growth is a structural, not cyclical, local signal.", "body": "Bradley County healthcare support occupations are projected as the metro's fastest-growing category even as registered nurse pay held flat and statewide health/education growth flattened to 0.2% year-over-year. Consistent demand at the support-occupation level amid flat wage movement suggests steady institutional hiring volume rather than a pay-driven surge."}], "local_conditions": "Bradley County's unemployment rate held near 3.3%-3.9% through mid-2026, well below the 4.1% national and roughly in line with Tennessee's 3.4% reading, even as statewide job growth has cooled to less than half its historical pace. Local wage data shows a split economy: skilled trades like electricians and CDL drivers posted significant local pay gains while office-based roles such as administrative assistants and accountants moved down, a divergence consistent with the national pattern of hands-on sectors outpacing white-collar activity.", "implications": "Tight local unemployment alongside uneven wage movement across the basket \u2014 up for logistics and skilled trades, down for administrative and professional roles \u2014 suggests the metro's labor market is reallocating rather than simply tightening or loosening uniformly. For commerce leaders assessing expansion timing, the combination of low joblessness and a thin available labor pool in trades and logistics may complicate growth plans tied to those sectors even as office-oriented investment faces less friction. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-specific wage trends rather than a single metro-wide average when evaluating the local business climate for a planned expansion or relocation.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Tennessee WARN filings have reached nearly 6,000 affected workers statewide in 2026, concentrated in manufacturing, transportation, and automotive \u2014 sectors with a presence in Bradley County's employer base. Watch whether any filings touch the Cleveland metro directly given its manufacturing and logistics concentration."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since 2021. If that gap persists, expect softer consumer spending signals to show up locally given the metro's retail and hospitality exposure, even with wages holding up better here than the national average in several trades."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Nashville's job growth, driven by large-scale tech investment, continues to pull job creation toward the state's largest metro while smaller markets like Cleveland lag. Local economic development leaders may find this a useful benchmark when positioning Bradley County's cost and labor advantages relative to Nashville's tighter, pricier market."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Healthcare support occupations are set to lead local job growth, a pattern distinct from the statewide flattening in education and health employment. Divergence between county-level and state-level healthcare signals is worth tracking over the next two months to see which trend holds."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23438.5, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30742.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22513.0, "metro_p50": 25118.0, "metro_p75": 27607.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 37379.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57793.0, "metro_p50": 83590.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29927.0, "metro_p50": 35870.0, "metro_p75": 37570.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27053.0, "metro_p50": 35984.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56137.0, "metro_p50": 67481.4, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30486.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 35900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25987.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32900.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35570.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29434.0, "metro_p50": 35484.0, "metro_p75": 38740.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 57541.0, "metro_p75": 58905.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74698.0, "metro_p50": 81430.4, "metro_p75": 91700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 108343.0, "metro_p50": 145080.0, "metro_p75": 162168.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 90330.0, "metro_p50": 129576.0, "metro_p75": 144120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 57006.4, "metro_p75": 57766.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 69568.0, "metro_p50": 88650.0, "metro_p75": 94664.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54918.0, "metro_p50": 58717.0, "metro_p75": 76246.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45638.75, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 70562.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63010.0, "metro_p50": 77938.4, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 52163.4, "metro_p75": 71386.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31512.0, "metro_p50": 34479.0, "metro_p75": 35026.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50835.0, "metro_p50": 66854.0, "metro_p75": 73610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76649.0, "metro_p50": 95461.6, "metro_p75": 106400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 41983.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 36191.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34608.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 79000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 39936.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 70991.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 65272.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66620.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "cleveland-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "cleveland-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "cleveland-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:32.144953+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cleveland-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cleveland-tn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}