{"schema_version": 1, "id": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 151, "label": "Clarksville, TN-KY MSA", "slug": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:28:20.104299+00:00", "headline": "Clarksville's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking job base.", "headline_summary": "Montgomery County unemployment dropped to 3.6% in September even as the metro continues averaging net job losses in 2026, while HVAC and construction trade pay fell locally against a rising national trend.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Montgomery County unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "Down from 4.0% in August 2026"}, {"label": "Metro job growth trend", "value": "-75 jobs/month avg. in 2026", "context": "vs. +197/month five-year average"}, {"label": "Tennessee unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Third straight month; vs. 4.1% US rate"}, {"label": "Clarksville avg. hourly earnings", "value": "$26.60", "context": "Highest among major TN metros (Feb. 2026)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment here is masking a shrinking labor market.", "body": "Montgomery County's rate dropped to 3.6% while the metro continues averaging net job losses in 2026, a combination that typically reflects workers leaving the labor force. Falling unemployment should not be read as a sign of economic acceleration this month."}, {"headline": "Trades pay is retreating even as professional pay climbs.", "body": "HVAC technician pay fell significantly and construction laborer and warehouse manager pay softened locally, while software engineering, accounting and financial analyst pay rose sharply. Divergence of this magnitude suggests project-based and facilities-driven investment faces a different labor cost environment than office-based expansion."}, {"headline": "Clarksville's wage premium over the state is real but narrowing in some trades.", "body": "Clarksville's average hourly earnings of $26.60 led major Tennessee metros earlier this year, yet several metro trade and frontline pay figures now trail the national median by wide margins, including HVAC ($62,500 vs. $71,406) and CNA/home health aide ($35,360 vs. $41,600). That gap may complicate recruitment-adjacent cost planning for employers anchoring new facilities to the metro's historical wage advantage."}, {"headline": "Fort Campbell and logistics remain the metro's stabilizers.", "body": "Military and logistics activity continue to anchor Clarksville's labor base, but neither is generating the net job growth seen in Nashville or statewide. Commerce leaders should treat metro-level stability as the realistic planning assumption through year-end."}], "local_conditions": "Montgomery County's unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in September, down from 4.0% in August, even as the broader Clarksville metro has averaged a loss of roughly 75 jobs per month through 2026, among the weakest job-growth trends of any Tennessee metro this cycle. Fort Campbell's military presence, logistics and manufacturing activity continue to anchor the local base, but construction and HVAC pay figures posted declines this month, consistent with the statewide construction employment stall reported by TDLWD.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside flat-to-negative job counts points to a shrinking labor pool, a distinction that matters for anyone weighing local expansion or facility investment timing. Wage movement is bifurcated: knowledge-economy and finance-adjacent pay (software engineering, accounting, financial analysis) is rising sharply locally while skilled trades and logistics pay (HVAC, warehouse, delivery) is softening, suggesting commerce investment may find more friction in trades-dependent projects than in professional-services expansion. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluating new facility or retail investment locally should weigh trades labor availability specifically as a distinct factor from the metro's low headline unemployment rate, which on its own is not a reliable signal of slack capacity.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Montgomery County's unemployment rate has moved sharply month to month (4.6% in August, 3.9% in July, 3.6% in September); watch whether the next TDLWD release confirms a sustained decline or reflects seasonal noise before drawing conclusions about labor supply."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction and HVAC advertised pay fell locally this month against a rising national trend, consistent with Tennessee's flat statewide construction employment. Commerce leaders with facility or build-out plans should monitor whether trades capacity tightens further into Q1."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Tennessee's TNTalent program is directing $5 million toward nuclear energy, AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing workforce development; watch for any Clarksville-area allocation or training partnership announcements, which would signal state investment reaching the metro directly."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (340,316 affected workers through October), and Tennessee logged 49 notices affecting 6,603 workers statewide this year. No major Clarksville-specific filings have surfaced, but regional WARN activity near Fort Campbell-adjacent logistics and manufacturing firms is worth tracking into year-end."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21576.5, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32136.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 26840.0, "metro_p75": 28934.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31602.5, "metro_p50": 35048.0, "metro_p75": 35589.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57719.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31076.0, "metro_p50": 32866.0, "metro_p75": 34675.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33003.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57120.75, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 72753.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36296.0, "metro_p75": 46872.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30803.0, "metro_p50": 34329.0, "metro_p75": 36341.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26656.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37522.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31533.0, "metro_p50": 40180.8, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53108.5, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 70341.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80081.0, "metro_p50": 96891.0, "metro_p75": 107894.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 117191.0, "metro_p50": 154152.0, "metro_p75": 168705.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 102470.5, "metro_p50": 133822.2, "metro_p75": 147353.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55653.5, "metro_p50": 73904.0, "metro_p75": 80944.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72000.0, "metro_p50": 98654.4, "metro_p75": 130316.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41395.0, "metro_p50": 60914.0, "metro_p75": 65458.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 61237.6, "metro_p75": 70836.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63540.5, "metro_p50": 77927.6, "metro_p75": 84043.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 41664.0, "metro_p75": 50727.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 79731.2, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50422.0, "metro_p50": 63495.8, "metro_p75": 68684.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86772.25, "metro_p50": 91152.2, "metro_p75": 111914.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 61032.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 61825.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35404.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65095.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54515.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55254.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 57000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63068.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montgomery County unemployment fell to 3.6% in September from 4.0% in August"}, {"source_name": "USA Facts / BLS State and Local Employment Report", "source_url": null, "statement": "Clarksville metro averaged a loss of 75 jobs per month in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Clarksville average hourly earnings of $26.60 led major Tennessee metros"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee TNTalent program launched with $5 million federal funding"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee WARN Notice Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee logged 49 WARN notices affecting 6,603 workers in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee unemployment held at 3.4% for three consecutive months"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:04.109133+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}