{"schema_version": 1, "id": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 151, "label": "Clarksville, TN-KY MSA", "slug": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:16.483236+00:00", "headline": "Clarksville unemployment edges up as Tennessee holds steady.", "headline_summary": "Montgomery County's jobless rate rose to 4.0% in August against a flat 3.4% statewide rate, while national wage growth slowed to 3.0% versus 3.4% inflation, a combination that shows up locally as declining pay in warehouse, delivery, and HVAC work.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Montgomery County unemployment", "value": "4.0%", "context": "Up from 3.9% in July; TN statewide at 3.4%"}, {"label": "National wage growth", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs 3.4% inflation; weakest since May 2021"}, {"label": "Clarksville manufacturing employment", "value": "14,560 workers", "context": "August 2026, steady despite statewide contraction"}, {"label": "Tennessee WARN-affected workers (YTD)", "value": "5,982", "context": "Concentrated in manufacturing, transport, automotive"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Clarksville's jobless rate is rising while Tennessee's stays flat.", "body": "Montgomery County unemployment climbed to 4.0% in August from 3.9% in July, even as the statewide rate held at 3.4% for a second straight month. One month of divergence is not a trend, but it bears watching against Nashville's continued outperformance within the state."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay is softening locally against a national backdrop of modest gains.", "body": "Clarksville's manufacturing production worker median sits at $35,075, trailing the $39,520 national figure, while the metro's broader warehouse and delivery pay categories show moderate-to-significant declines. Combined with statewide manufacturing contraction, this points to a sector carrying less local wage momentum than its 14,560-person employment base might suggest."}, {"headline": "Professional and technical pay is pulling away from blue-collar and service wages.", "body": "Software engineer, financial analyst, and accountant pay all post significant local increases, while food service, delivery driver, and HVAC technician pay move down with significant magnitude. Mirrors the national split between white-collar resilience and blue-collar softness, suggesting the metro's consumer-facing sectors may be absorbing more wage pressure than its knowledge-sector employers."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has reached Clarksville's lower-wage occupations first.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth fell to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since 2021, and locally this shows up as declining advertised pay in food service, delivery, and warehouse roles rather than broad-based wage stagnation. Narrower purchasing power in these segments carries direct implications for retail and hospitality spending in the metro."}], "local_conditions": "Montgomery County's unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0% in August from 3.9% in July, moving modestly against Tennessee's statewide 3.4% rate and suggesting the metro is cooling slightly faster than the state as a whole. Manufacturing employment held near 14.56 thousand workers even as statewide manufacturing contracted, while national wage growth slowed to a five-year low of 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, a gap that appears to be reaching Clarksville through flat-to-declining advertised pay in warehouse, delivery, and HVAC roles.", "implications": "Divergence between the metro's rising unemployment rate and Tennessee's historically tight labor market suggests Clarksville's economic momentum is decoupling somewhat from the state's Nashville-driven growth story, a distinction worth noting in any regional comparison. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh that local softening against national wage-inflation compression, which signals thinner consumer purchasing power even where local unemployment remains below the 4.1% national rate. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether the August uptick in Montgomery County's jobless rate persists into a trend or proves a one-month fluctuation before drawing conclusions about the metro's trajectory.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Montgomery County's August uptick to 4.0% unemployment extends into September data, due for release later this fall. A second consecutive monthly increase would mark a clearer break from the record-low rates reported earlier in 2026."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development's September county-level release, which will clarify whether Clarksville's softening is an isolated reading or consistent with broader Southeast slowing noted in state data."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings have reached at least 5,982 affected workers this year, concentrated in manufacturing, transportation, and automotive -- sectors with meaningful local presence in Clarksville-Montgomery County. Any filing activity naming local manufacturers would be a materially different story than the current clean record."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to July and August totaling 60,000. If that national deceleration persists, commerce leaders should expect continued pressure on consumer-facing wage categories locally, given Clarksville's exposure to retail, food service, and logistics employment."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21654.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31698.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22830.0, "metro_p50": 26562.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31768.0, "metro_p50": 35048.0, "metro_p75": 35471.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57582.0, "metro_p50": 78996.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31076.0, "metro_p50": 32866.0, "metro_p75": 34693.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32890.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55564.0, "metro_p50": 65696.0, "metro_p75": 71471.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30670.0, "metro_p50": 35075.0, "metro_p75": 46872.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35420.2, "metro_p75": 36800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26488.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32158.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32408.25, "metro_p50": 36232.4, "metro_p75": 37450.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41371.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53108.5, "metro_p50": 61932.0, "metro_p75": 68640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80202.0, "metro_p50": 96410.0, "metro_p75": 107507.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120400.0, "metro_p50": 161076.4, "metro_p75": 169843.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101740.25, "metro_p50": 136578.6, "metro_p75": 148606.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57410.5, "metro_p50": 72902.2, "metro_p75": 88057.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82500.0, "metro_p50": 107500.0, "metro_p75": 131078.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43820.0, "metro_p50": 60365.6, "metro_p75": 66503.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45638.75, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 70562.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63010.0, "metro_p50": 77938.4, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 41789.0, "metro_p75": 50500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59375.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50835.0, "metro_p50": 66854.0, "metro_p75": 73610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76649.0, "metro_p50": 95461.6, "metro_p75": 106400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60210.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 61862.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35589.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 66796.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 73825.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55159.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 53895.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55732.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65505.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:29.408434+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/clarksville-tn-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}