{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 192, "label": "Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA", "slug": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:27:26.920223+00:00", "headline": "Cincinnati holds a tight labor market while Ohio's workforce shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Cincinnati's 3.5% unemployment rate continues to outperform both Ohio's 3.4% statewide figure and the 4.1% national rate, even as industrial vacancy drops to 4.6% \u2014 its tightest level since 2023 \u2014 on the strength of logistics investment including Amazon's new 538,525-square-foot lease.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Cincinnati metro unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.4% Ohio (Q3 2026)"}, {"label": "Industrial vacancy rate", "value": "4.6%", "context": "Lowest since 2023, down 170bps from 2025 peak"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force participation", "value": "61.2%", "context": "vs 61.8% national; shrinking since June 2025"}, {"label": "Cincinnati MSA nonfarm payrolls", "value": "1,180,700", "context": "Down 2,100 jobs from June 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Cincinnati is outperforming both Ohio and the US on unemployment.", "body": "Metro unemployment at 3.5% compares favorably to Ohio's 3.4%-to-3.7% drift and the national 4.1% rate, even as Ohio shed 5,000 jobs statewide in September. That divergence suggests Cincinnati's economic base \u2014 anchored by a $198 billion GDP that now exceeds Columbus \u2014 is proving more resilient than state-level indicators imply."}, {"headline": "Industrial real estate demand is outrunning headline job numbers.", "body": "Industrial vacancy at 4.6%, the tightest since 2023, and Amazon's new 538,525-square-foot lease point to continued capital investment in logistics infrastructure even as Cincinnati MSA payrolls dipped by 2,100 in July. Commerce leaders should treat real estate absorption and payroll counts as separate signals, each offering a distinct proxy for economic strength."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing wage gains outpace the sector's job ad stability.", "body": "Metro machining and welding roles now command $25-$29 an hour and production supervisors exceed $70,000, yet broader manufacturing advertised pay (production worker/assembler) sits flat at a $40,248 median. Wage pressure is concentrated in technical trades, consistent with Ohio's statewide pattern of 23 manufacturing WARN filings alongside selective wage gains."}, {"headline": "Ohio's labor-force shrinkage has not yet reached Cincinnati's numbers.", "body": "Statewide labor force participation fell to 61.2% against 61.8% nationally, with Ohio's workforce contracting since June 2025. Cincinnati's unemployment figures have not shown comparable deterioration, suggesting the metro may be a partial exception to the state's demographic and participation headwinds worth monitoring as new data arrives."}], "local_conditions": "Cincinnati's metro unemployment rate held at 3.5% in Q3 2026, well below the 4.1% national figure and roughly in line with Hamilton County's 3.5-3.6% reading, signaling a labor market tighter than most of the country despite Ohio's statewide softening. Industrial vacancy fell to 4.6% \u2014 its lowest level since 2023 \u2014 alongside Amazon's 538,525-square-foot lease in the Monroe/Middletown submarket, pointing to continued logistics and distribution investment even as statewide payrolls contracted and labor force participation slipped to 61.2%.", "implications": "Cincinnati's unemployment advantage over Ohio and the nation suggests the metro economy is absorbing labor-force headwinds \u2014 aging demographics and slower immigration-driven growth \u2014 better than the state as a whole, which matters for commerce leaders assessing whether local labor availability can support expansion plans. Falling industrial vacancy paired with large logistics leases points to sustained warehousing and distribution demand, a sector where advertised pay ($37,440 metro median) has stayed flat even as space tightens, raising a question about whether wage signals are keeping pace with real estate and investment momentum. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials should track whether job ad volume in logistics and manufacturing trades \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, since one ad often covers several openings \u2014 converts into actual facility openings, treating lease announcements as one input alongside hiring-demand data rather than standalone confirmation of broad-based job growth.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS publishes official October MSA-level unemployment data for Cincinnati on November 24. That release will confirm whether the metro's 3.5% Q3 reading held, tightened further, or began tracking Ohio's September softening."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Amazon's Monroe/Middletown lease and falling industrial vacancy (4.6%) suggest continued logistics investment; watch whether job ad volume for warehouse and fulfillment roles \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, since each ad often covers several openings \u2014 rises in step with new facility announcements."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio's statewide inflation-adjusted wage decline and participation drop could begin showing up in Hamilton County data in coming months. Divergence between local and state trends is a key indicator economic development officials should track for early signs of convergence."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "National reporting ties slower labor force growth to demographic retirement patterns and immigration policy shifts, both bearing directly on regional labor availability. Metro and county agencies may want to monitor Census and BLS participation data locally and weigh conclusions against that evidence as it accumulates."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 29626.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25122.0, "metro_p50": 28671.0, "metro_p75": 30455.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33219.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30732.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 41983.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34000.0, "metro_p50": 40412.8, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 71729.6, "metro_p75": 79059.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34019.0, "metro_p50": 40248.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34580.0, "metro_p50": 40152.4, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28063.0, "metro_p50": 32101.8, "metro_p75": 34570.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34773.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46162.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58964.0, "metro_p50": 69913.8, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79580.0, "metro_p50": 91608.8, "metro_p75": 98835.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101375.0, "metro_p50": 135435.0, "metro_p75": 148873.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88526.0, "metro_p50": 125700.0, "metro_p75": 140424.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 71322.6, "metro_p75": 79518.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 89098.0, "metro_p75": 96537.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50500.0, "metro_p50": 66892.6, "metro_p75": 76519.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48632.0, "metro_p50": 65312.0, "metro_p75": 78292.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72078.0, "metro_p50": 89911.0, "metro_p75": 94392.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31792.25, "metro_p50": 46260.6, "metro_p75": 51321.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 91134.0, "metro_p75": 117765.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57803.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80061.0, "metro_p50": 96467.2, "metro_p75": 108081.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 66544.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35100.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54349.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 79247.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 73630.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 72351.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 51578.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64631.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:01.652302+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}