{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 192, "label": "Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA", "slug": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:12.208941+00:00", "headline": "Cincinnati outpaces Columbus, but labor force questions linger.", "headline_summary": "Cincinnati's unemployment rate held near 3.6%-3.7% and the metro has overtaken Columbus in total employment, even as Ohio's labor force shrank by 95,000 over the past year and national wage growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Cincinnati metro unemployment", "value": "3.6%-3.7%", "context": "Hamilton County 3.6%, MSA 3.70% in July 2026"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force change", "value": "-95,000", "context": "Year-over-year decline despite 39,000 more working-age residents"}, {"label": "National wage vs. inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest wage growth reading since May 2021"}, {"label": "Ohio vs. national unemployment", "value": "3.3% vs 4.1%", "context": "Ohio outperforms national rate by 0.8 points"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Cincinnati's low jobless rate may mask a shrinking labor pool, not surplus demand.", "body": "Ohio's labor force fell by 95,000 over the past year even as the state's unemployment rate dropped, a pattern regional economists describe as participation-driven rather than growth-driven. Cincinnati's 3.6%-3.7% rate should be read alongside this statewide trend before being treated as a clean signal of economic strength."}, {"headline": "Cincinnati is quietly outpacing Columbus in total employment.", "body": "The metro has ticked ahead of Columbus in employment levels while Columbus posted job losses in three of six months through June, repositioning Cincinnati as a comparatively stronger draw for regional investment within Ohio. This shift is worth tracking in site-selection and economic development messaging over the coming quarters."}, {"headline": "Construction and manufacturing remain the region's clearest growth engines.", "body": "Regional construction unemployment sits at 3.7%, and statewide manufacturing and construction added a combined 7,900 jobs from June to July, a pattern locally consistent with continued demand for machinists, welders, and production workers. Sustained momentum in these sectors is plausibly linked to data center and industrial buildout activity across southwest Ohio."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation dynamics locally echo a national squeeze on purchasing power.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest wage reading since 2021, while Ohio's minimum wage rose just 2.8% in January. Local consumer spending momentum may be more fragile than the headline unemployment rate suggests, a relevant consideration for retail and hospitality-dependent commerce districts."}], "local_conditions": "Cincinnati's unemployment rate held near 3.6%-3.7% through July, outperforming both Ohio (3.3%) and the national rate (4.1%), with the metro recently surpassing Columbus in total employment levels even as Columbus posted job losses in three of six months through June. Manufacturing and construction continue to anchor local momentum -- construction unemployment sits at just 3.7% regionally against a national rate still working through elevated layoffs -- while statewide labor force contraction (95,000 fewer Ohioans in the labor force year-over-year) raises questions about whether Cincinnati's tight jobless rate reflects genuine demand strength or a shrinking pool of active job seekers.", "implications": "Cincinnati's relative outperformance against Columbus and the national pace signals a metro economy still absorbing investment, particularly in construction and manufacturing, which supports a case for continued business expansion and site-selection confidence even as statewide labor force participation softens. For commerce leaders, the gap between a low local unemployment rate and Ohio's shrinking labor force argues for watching participation data as closely as the headline rate, since a tightening market driven by fewer job seekers rather than more hiring carries different implications for consumer spending and tax base growth. Consider monitoring regional labor force participation alongside the unemployment rate when assessing whether current conditions support new investment or signal underlying workforce supply constraints.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Ohio's labor force contraction (10,000 fewer participants from July to August alone) extends into Hamilton County specifically; a continued statewide pullback could eventually show up in Cincinnati's own participation figures even as its unemployment rate stays low."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth has slowed sharply (29,000 added in September, with July and August revised down a combined 60,000); any deceleration filtering into Ohio hiring data over the next two reporting cycles would be the clearest test of whether Cincinnati's outperformance can hold."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Construction and manufacturing job growth tied to data center buildout across southwest Ohio is a named driver worth tracking for concrete signs of continued capital investment versus a pause, given softer national construction layoff figures (108,000 in August, down from 182,000 in July)."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Eighteen Ohio WARN notices have been filed in the past 90 days, led by manufacturing (23 notices statewide) and including International Motors LLC (1,341 workers); confirm whether any of these filings touch Cincinnati-area facilities specifically as the data becomes available."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24087.0, "metro_p50": 29744.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25086.25, "metro_p50": 28600.0, "metro_p75": 30366.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32572.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58048.0, "metro_p50": 77658.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29305.0, "metro_p50": 34243.0, "metro_p75": 40457.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34100.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58046.0, "metro_p50": 70789.0, "metro_p75": 77853.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34019.0, "metro_p50": 40248.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34580.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28311.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 34570.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 70720.0, "metro_p75": 75026.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79515.0, "metro_p50": 90935.0, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100000.0, "metro_p50": 134654.0, "metro_p75": 148311.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88497.0, "metro_p50": 125868.0, "metro_p75": 140400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59461.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 78091.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69949.75, "metro_p50": 89962.0, "metro_p75": 97526.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49920.0, "metro_p50": 66157.6, "metro_p75": 76519.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49348.0, "metro_p50": 66715.0, "metro_p75": 80077.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72719.0, "metro_p50": 90725.6, "metro_p75": 94814.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31742.0, "metro_p50": 46886.0, "metro_p75": 51404.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64609.5, "metro_p50": 90514.0, "metro_p75": 118175.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57803.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79987.0, "metro_p50": 95237.0, "metro_p75": 107800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 61360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 65228.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35326.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55300.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 84636.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 72558.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 72298.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 51046.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67806.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:28.103767+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cincinnati-middletown-oh-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}