{"schema_version": 1, "id": "chicago-naperville-joliet-il-in-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 143, "label": "Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA", "slug": "chicago-naperville-joliet-il-in-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:30.950541+00:00", "headline": "Chicago jobless rate climbs even as metro payrolls hit a record.", "headline_summary": "Chicago-area unemployment rose to 5.2% in August from 4.5% a year earlier even as the metro logged record year-over-year job counts, a split that points to labor force growth outpacing hiring rather than a straightforward slowdown.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Chicago metro unemployment rate", "value": "5.2%", "context": "Up from 4.5% in Aug 2025; vs 4.7% Illinois, 4.1% US"}, {"label": "Illinois labor force size", "value": "6.48M", "context": "Down from 6.57M in March 2026 (IDES)"}, {"label": "Illinois YoY payroll job growth", "value": "+15,000", "context": "Construction and health services led; finance -15,800"}, {"label": "Illinois WARN notices, YTD 2026", "value": "16,782 workers", "context": "91 filings; Sept adds Uber, GoHealth, T-Mobile"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment and job counts are rising together \u2014 a signal, not a contradiction.", "body": "Chicago's 5.2% jobless rate rose even as the metro posted record year-over-year payroll gains, a pattern most consistent with labor force expansion outpacing hiring rather than outright economic weakness. Government economists should treat this as a participation story first and a demand story second."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades remain the metro's clearest tight-labor signal.", "body": "Electrician advertised pay rose significantly both locally and nationally, and the Chicago Fed's Beige Book flagged large trade wage increases alongside flat consumer spending and construction activity. That split \u2014 wage pressure without volume growth \u2014 suggests a supply constraint specific to skilled labor rather than broad-based demand strength."}, {"headline": "Illinois' falling jobless rate partly reflects a shrinking labor force, not stronger hiring.", "body": "Statewide labor force contracted from 6.57 million in March to 6.48 million in August even as household employment stayed flat, per Moody's and CGFA analysis. Commerce leaders should read state-level unemployment improvements cautiously until local labor force data confirms the trend holds for metro Chicago specifically."}, {"headline": "Public and financial-sector softness is masked by healthcare and construction gains.", "body": "Illinois lost 15,800 financial activities jobs and 2,900 information jobs year-over-year while education, health services, and construction posted the largest gains. A whole-metro view shows uneven sectoral footing rather than a uniformly strengthening or weakening economy."}], "local_conditions": "Chicago-Naperville-Elgin unemployment climbed to 5.2% in August, up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier even as the metro notched a record year-over-year nonfarm job count and Lake County extended eight straight months of annual growth. Divergence between a rising jobless rate and record payroll counts is consistent with faster labor force growth than job creation, while skilled trades wages accelerated and statewide sectors like financial activities and information continued shedding positions.", "implications": "Rising headline unemployment alongside record job counts signals a metro absorbing more workers into the labor force than it is placing into payrolls, a pattern that complicates simple heating-or-cooling reads and argues for weighing participation and payroll trends together rather than unemployment alone. For commerce leaders assessing local business climate, resilient construction, healthcare, and skilled-trades wage momentum point to pockets of real tightness even as white-collar and financial-sector softness weighs on the aggregate picture. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level payroll data rather than the metro unemployment rate in isolation when gauging investment timing.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Chicago's September unemployment reading (due early next month) extends the 5.2% climb or reverses it, which will clarify whether August's rise reflects labor force growth or genuine softening in local hiring."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Illinois WARN filings have reached 91 notices and 16,782 workers year-to-date, including Norvax/GoHealth and T-Mobile cuts in September. Track whether these concentrate in specific metro submarkets or spread across the broader region."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Q1 2026 EDGE tax credit commitments already exceeded all of 2025, with Hyundai Translead and Mars Snacking expansions totaling roughly $550 million and 3,100 jobs. Confirm whether these announced investments convert into measurable payroll gains in Will County and city proper over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the first real-wage decline in two years. Local purchasing power data for Chicago households, once available, will show whether the metro's skilled-trades wage strength is enough to offset this national erosion."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30144.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28922.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42429.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61414.0, "metro_p50": 81019.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30438.0, "metro_p50": 34399.0, "metro_p75": 40741.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34060.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42994.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64210.0, "metro_p50": 75290.0, "metro_p75": 82341.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35187.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37279.0, "metro_p50": 44131.0, "metro_p75": 46280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37636.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 52703.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62962.0, "metro_p50": 75036.0, "metro_p75": 86103.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85394.0, "metro_p50": 98000.0, "metro_p75": 105456.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 114500.0, "metro_p50": 151545.6, "metro_p75": 167500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99668.0, "metro_p50": 140168.8, "metro_p75": 157031.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63927.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 84661.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75150.0, "metro_p50": 94688.0, "metro_p75": 101544.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 86883.0, "metro_p75": 108161.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48748.0, "metro_p50": 69375.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78627.0, "metro_p50": 99810.6, "metro_p75": 105536.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40040.0, "metro_p50": 58074.0, "metro_p75": 67275.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67156.0, "metro_p50": 91259.0, "metro_p75": 109733.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54810.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79440.0, "metro_p50": 93170.2, "metro_p75": 108327.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 74000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 90440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38646.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 115617.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 107751.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82648.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62043.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72355.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "chicago-naperville-joliet-il-in-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "chicago-naperville-joliet-il-in-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "chicago-naperville-joliet-il-in-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:24.774600+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/chicago-naperville-joliet-il-in-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/chicago-naperville-joliet-il-in-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}