{"schema_version": 1, "id": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 124, "label": "Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA", "slug": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:21:17.962739+00:00", "headline": "Chattanooga management pay slips as the nation holds firm.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell to $52,500 locally against a stable $59,724 nationally, while Catering Manager pay dropped significantly to $40,632 amid a metro-wide forecast cut to just 1,100 net jobs for 2026.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Chattanooga GM advertised pay", "value": "$52,500", "context": "vs. stable $59,724 national median"}, {"label": "Catering Manager advertised pay", "value": "$40,632", "context": "down significantly; national also down to $50,076"}, {"label": "Metro 2026 job growth forecast", "value": "1,100 jobs", "context": "Cut from earlier UTC 2026 projections"}, {"label": "Tennessee unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "vs. 4.1% national rate, Sept/Oct 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is falling locally while the nation holds steady.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay sits at $52,500 locally versus a stable $59,724 nationally, a gap that didn't exist earlier this year. Operators benefiting from softer competition today may be building a retention gap that surfaces once hiring picks back up."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay decline looks like the sharpest local signal this month.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Catering Manager dropped significantly to $40,632 against a national figure already falling to $50,076. Catering and event-driven revenue may be softening locally faster than core dine-in demand, worth checking against banquet and event booking volume before reading this as pure labor-market slack."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation creates planning flexibility.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule lets Tennessee operators pay the $2.13 tipped rate for side work without the prior 20% threshold cap, since Tennessee defaults to the federal tipped minimum with no state wage floor. Operators can use this to simplify FOH scheduling and task allocation, but tip pools still need to clear $7.25 total or kitchens risk wage-and-hour exposure."}, {"headline": "Cook wage pressure is structural; server pressure stays limited.", "body": "BLS projects 12% national growth in cook employment through 2035 against just 2% for servers, while Line Cook advertised pay in Chattanooga has held stable at $31,928 even as metro leisure and hospitality adds jobs. Current conditions suggest BOH compensation benchmarking deserves more frequent review than FOH roles over the next several quarters."}], "local_conditions": "Chattanooga's restaurant labor pool is tightening against a backdrop of broader metro softening: UTC's fall forecast cut 2026 job growth projections to just 1,100 net positions after T-Mobile's 200-worker October layoff and continued manufacturing contraction, yet leisure and hospitality remains one of the few sectors still adding headcount statewide. Advertised pay for frontline restaurant roles in the metro is flat to declining even as national restaurant turnover climbs toward 80%, suggesting local operators are gaining relief from candidate competition that other metros are seeing more acutely.", "implications": "Metro-level pay softness across Assistant Manager, Catering Manager, and GM roles \u2014 down moderately to significantly while national figures hold stable \u2014 signals Chattanooga operators can fill management pipelines without chasing compensation the way they had to earlier in 2026, likely a byproduct of slower regional job growth easing competition for experienced talent. That gap creates near-term margin relief on labor cost as a share of revenue, but a widening metro-to-national pay differential on management roles raises retention risk if ambitious GMs and catering managers benchmark against national job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), and look outside the market. Consider reviewing management compensation against national advertised rates specifically, even while frontline hourly pay stays anchored to local conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether T-Mobile's 200 laid-off Chattanooga workers or other October WARN-listed employees shift into hospitality and food service job searches, a pattern that could ease FOH staffing pressure heading into the holiday season."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Catering Manager pay has fallen significantly both locally and nationally; track event and banquet booking volume over the next two months to determine whether this reflects softening corporate and holiday catering demand or labor oversupply."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "No Tennessee minimum or tipped-wage changes are scheduled, but the federal 80/20 rule withdrawal gives operators room to reallocate FOH side work \u2014 worth testing on a location-by-location basis before rolling out system-wide."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "UTC's downward revision to 2026 metro job growth (1,100 net jobs) suggests overall labor market slack is building; if that continues, expect further softening in management-tier advertised pay relative to national benchmarks, widening the gap flagged this month."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 35864.0, "metro_p75": 39178.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40632.0, "metro_p50": 40632.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21840.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 27072.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27239.5, "metro_p50": 31928.0, "metro_p75": 35004.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 52500.0, "metro_p75": 57273.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26036.0, "metro_p50": 29178.0, "metro_p75": 31814.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 29902.0, "metro_p75": 32368.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "UTC Center for Regional Economic Research", "source_url": null, "statement": "UTC fall forecast cut 2026 metro job growth to 1,100 net positions"}, {"source_name": "News Channel 9", "source_url": null, "statement": "T-Mobile laid off 200 workers in Chattanooga in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee has no state minimum wage; defaults to federal $7.25/$2.13 tipped rate"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects 12% growth in cook employment vs. 2% for servers through 2035"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee unemployment held at 3.4% for third straight month"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:52.543964+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}