{"schema_version": 1, "id": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 124, "label": "Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA", "slug": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:30:21.818280+00:00", "headline": "Chattanooga job growth forecast cut to near-zero despite low unemployment.", "headline_summary": "UTC's fall forecast projects just 1,100 net new jobs metro-wide for 2026, even as unemployment holds at 3.3% and manufacturing has shed roughly 2,200 positions since mid-2024.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "2026 metro job growth forecast", "value": "1,100 jobs", "context": "Sharply down from earlier 2026 UTC projections"}, {"label": "Chattanooga MSA unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "vs 3.4% TN, 4.1% US (July/Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Manufacturing job losses (metro)", "value": "-2,200 jobs", "context": "Since mid-2024 slowdown, per UTC CRER"}, {"label": "Tennessee WARN activity", "value": "6,603 workers", "context": "49 notices statewide through Oct. 20, 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a growth slowdown.", "body": "UTC's fall forecast cut projected 2026 job growth to a net 1,100 positions even as the unemployment rate held at 3.3% in July. That gap suggests the rate reflects a shrinking or exiting labor pool as much as it reflects hiring strength, a distinction that matters for anyone citing unemployment as a standalone growth indicator."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness lines up with the national tariff-uncertainty story.", "body": "Local manufacturing employment is down about 2,200 jobs since mid-2024, consistent with the UTC forecast's explicit citation of tariff uncertainty and higher interest rates as drags on the sector. Construction labor pay (up significantly, $39,520 median) and electrician pay (up significantly, $66,184) are rising even as broader manufacturing contracts, pointing to uneven sector-level cost and capacity pressure across the metro."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades are carrying the metro's wage momentum.", "body": "Registered nurse pay is up moderately to $89,372 and HVAC technician pay up moderately to $60,452, both outpacing the metro's flatter categories like customer service ($36,234, stable) and office administration ($37,440, stable). Sustained advertised-wage growth in these lanes, against a backdrop of UTC's downgraded job forecast, signals where metro economic resilience is concentrated."}, {"headline": "T-Mobile's reduction is a single data point; watch for pattern confirmation.", "body": "A single 200-worker layoff doesn't establish a sector trend, but it follows the same timing as the UTC forecast downgrade and national information-sector job losses (-23,000 in September per BLS). Commerce leaders should watch whether additional WARN filings emerge locally before treating this as an isolated event."}], "local_conditions": "Chattanooga's metro economy is cooling at the edges while remaining structurally tight: the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga's fall forecast now projects a net gain of only 1,100 jobs for all of 2026, down sharply from earlier estimates, with manufacturing down roughly 2,200 jobs and professional/business services down about 1,200 since the slowdown began in mid-2024. Healthcare and education continue to offset those losses with roughly 1,700 added positions, and the metro's 3.3% July unemployment rate still runs below both the Tennessee (3.4%) and national (4.1%) rates, suggesting a local economy absorbing sector-specific contraction without broad labor-market slack.", "implications": "Divergence between a low headline unemployment rate and a stalled net job-growth forecast signals that Chattanooga's labor market tightness is concentrated in healthcare, education and skilled trades \u2014 a distinction that matters for anyone reading unemployment alone as a growth signal. T-Mobile's October reduction of 200 local positions, layered onto the UTC forecast downgrade, indicates that even consumer-facing and tech-adjacent employers are recalibrating headcount amid tariff-driven manufacturing uncertainty and elevated interest rates, which has direct bearing on local permitting, site-selection and incentive conversations. Current conditions suggest economic development and commerce leaders evaluate near-term investment and expansion pitches against sector-specific momentum \u2014 healthcare and skilled trades weighed against manufacturing and general professional services \u2014 alongside the metro's aggregate unemployment figure.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "UTC's Center for Regional Economic Research is expected to update its 2026 forecast again before year-end; a further downward revision from the current 1,100-job projection would confirm the slowdown is broadening beyond manufacturing."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "City-led 'One Chattanooga Works' initiative targeting adults 25-54 launched in late October; initial enrollment and placement figures over the next 60 days will indicate whether labor force participation among prime-age workers is responding to coordinated local outreach."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Tennessee WARN filings sit at 49 notices covering 6,603 workers statewide through October 20; whether Chattanooga-area employers appear in additional filings will clarify if the T-Mobile reduction is isolated or part of a wider contraction."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continuing tariff uncertainty and elevated interest rates, cited explicitly by UTC as drags on manufacturing recovery, warrant tracking against any new site-selection or expansion announcements in the metro's industrial base over the next quarter."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22800.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30846.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21750.5, "metro_p50": 25118.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30068.0, "metro_p50": 33861.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 79300.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31962.25, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43597.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56870.25, "metro_p50": 66184.4, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31763.5, "metro_p50": 37846.0, "metro_p75": 39187.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31493.0, "metro_p50": 36234.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25636.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31014.0, "metro_p50": 34077.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31678.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41648.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52906.0, "metro_p50": 60452.0, "metro_p75": 64667.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76367.5, "metro_p50": 89372.0, "metro_p75": 97243.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80784.25, "metro_p50": 111995.0, "metro_p75": 136241.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85389.0, "metro_p50": 117753.0, "metro_p75": 123874.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57564.0, "metro_p50": 71731.0, "metro_p75": 72297.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66083.5, "metro_p50": 87317.6, "metro_p75": 94429.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47574.25, "metro_p50": 64466.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40463.0, "metro_p50": 51585.2, "metro_p75": 56517.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66138.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77933.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 50000.0, "metro_p75": 55500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50749.0, "metro_p50": 72244.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50422.0, "metro_p50": 63495.8, "metro_p75": 68684.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75931.0, "metro_p50": 93482.0, "metro_p75": 107395.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 47491.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 63450.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35290.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65749.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70250.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 69561.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 72144.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29737.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65705.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:52.109695+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/chattanooga-tn-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}