{"schema_version": 1, "id": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 116, "label": "Charlottesville, VA MSA", "slug": "charlottesville-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:30:16.827735+00:00", "headline": "Charlottesville outpaces Virginia's job losses, but real wages still lag.", "headline_summary": "Charlottesville added 3,200 jobs year-over-year against a statewide projected loss near 18,000, even as Virginia wage growth continues to trail CPI inflation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Charlottesville MSA job growth (YoY)", "value": "+3,200 jobs", "context": "Largest gain among Virginia metros; total employment ~128,000"}, {"label": "Virginia statewide job outlook, 2026", "value": "-18,050 jobs (projected)", "context": "Second consecutive annual decline, per Weldon Cooper Center"}, {"label": "Charlottesville MSA unemployment", "value": "3.4% (Nov 2025, latest available)", "context": "Below Virginia's 3.6% and national 4.1%"}, {"label": "Virginia labor force change", "value": "-68,000 since early 2025", "context": "Shrinkage may understate true labor-market slack"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Charlottesville is outperforming Virginia's statewide contraction.", "body": "A 3,200-job year-over-year gain against a projected statewide loss of roughly 18,000 jobs in 2026 suggests the metro's health care and public-sector base is providing insulation that other Virginia metros lack. That divergence is a relevant data point for regional economic development comparisons, and it would need to persist through any deepening of federal cuts to remain a lasting advantage."}, {"headline": "Real wages are falling even where job counts look strong.", "body": "Virginia wage data show nominal gains failing to keep pace with CPI, consistent with the national pattern of median weekly earnings rising 1.5% against 3.5% inflation in Q3. Locally advertised pay for CDL drivers ($80,000, up moderately) and HVAC technicians ($72,103, up significantly) stands out against flatter or declining advertised pay for accountants and operations managers, pointing to uneven purchasing power across the metro's workforce."}, {"headline": "Federal and professional-services exposure remains the metro's clearest vulnerability.", "body": "Albemarle County's own outlook names federal government and professional/business services job losses as a drag that health care and state government gains are currently offsetting in part. Commerce leaders evaluating the metro's resilience should track whether that offset holds as federal workforce reductions continue nationally."}, {"headline": "Labor-force shrinkage statewide may be flattering Virginia's headline unemployment rate.", "body": "Virginia's labor force has contracted by roughly 68,000 since early 2025 through retirement and out-migration, which mechanically suppresses the unemployment rate even as hiring slows \u2014 hires fell 13% year-over-year statewide in October. Charlottesville-specific labor force participation data lag, so local economists should treat the metro's 3.4% unemployment reading with the same caution applied statewide."}], "local_conditions": "Charlottesville MSA added 3,200 jobs year-over-year, the largest gain of any Virginia metro, lifting total employment to roughly 128,000 even as Virginia overall is on pace for a second consecutive annual job decline of about 18,000 positions statewide. Local momentum appears concentrated in health care services and state government, which Albemarle County's October economic outlook identifies as offsetting continued softness in federal government and professional and business services employment tied to broader federal workforce reductions.", "implications": "Metro-level job growth outpacing the state average signals a local economy still absorbing federal-sector contraction without a net employment decline, which matters directly for site-selection and investment decisions by commerce and economic development leaders weighing Charlottesville against other Virginia metros. Wage-vs-inflation dynamics remain unfavorable statewide \u2014 nominal wage growth trailing CPI \u2014 which bears on consumer spending capacity for retail and service-sector businesses even where local job counts look healthy. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber leaders monitor whether health care and state government job growth is durable enough to offset further federal and professional-services softening before drawing conclusions about the metro's investment climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Virginia Works is scheduled to publish official October 2026 MSA unemployment data on November 20, giving the first direct read on whether Charlottesville's job-growth lead over the state held into fall."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings are concentrated in manufacturing, technology, retail and healthcare; none are currently concentrated in Charlottesville, but commerce leaders should watch whether regional ripple effects from Virginia-wide professional-services contraction reach local employers."}, {"category": "Policy signal to monitor", "body": "Virginia's minimum wage rises to $13.75 effective January 1, 2027, a scheduled statutory change set at the state level that will affect advertised pay floors for retail, food service and warehouse roles across the metro's lower-wage basket."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Albemarle County's framing of state government and health care as offsetting federal losses depends on continued public-sector hiring; any shift in state budget posture or UVA Health staffing plans would be an early signal of whether that offset is durable."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26845.0, "metro_p50": 30170.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27122.0, "metro_p50": 31411.0, "metro_p75": 31980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30711.0, "metro_p50": 34257.4, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61360.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 92160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29794.0, "metro_p50": 31806.0, "metro_p75": 36470.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 40144.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 65820.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31720.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35938.0, "metro_p50": 40828.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28960.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34050.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 44002.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 47892.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59341.75, "metro_p50": 72103.0, "metro_p75": 75755.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87183.0, "metro_p50": 103287.0, "metro_p75": 110461.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111800.0, "metro_p50": 151885.0, "metro_p75": 165000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101182.0, "metro_p50": 119042.0, "metro_p75": 126750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56861.0, "metro_p50": 65461.0, "metro_p75": 72377.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66260.0, "metro_p50": 84000.0, "metro_p75": 102307.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58319.0, "metro_p50": 69579.0, "metro_p75": 82286.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55528.0, "metro_p50": 59410.0, "metro_p75": 73182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63043.5, "metro_p50": 83500.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 58136.0, "metro_p75": 64480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63555.0, "metro_p50": 105279.8, "metro_p75": 118785.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54050.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80849.0, "metro_p50": 97084.2, "metro_p75": 116036.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60544.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 91000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33956.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 109200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 98504.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 91957.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34171.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 58125.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Albemarle County Economic Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Charlottesville MSA added 3,200 jobs year-over-year, largest among VA metros"}, {"source_name": "UVA Weldon Cooper Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia projected to lose ~18,050 jobs in 2026, second straight annual decline"}, {"source_name": "Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia labor force declined ~68,000 since early 2025"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}, {"source_name": "Virginia HB 1 (enacted April 8, 2026)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia minimum wage rises to $13.75 effective Jan. 1, 2027"}, {"source_name": "Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "October 2026 MSA unemployment data release scheduled Nov. 20"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:49.767895+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}