{"schema_version": 1, "id": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 116, "label": "Charlottesville, VA MSA", "slug": "charlottesville-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:15.964847+00:00", "headline": "Charlottesville holds steady as Virginia's labor market cools", "headline_summary": "Charlottesville's roughly 2.7% unemployment rate continues to outperform Virginia's 3.6% and the national 4.1%, even as the state's labor force has shrunk by about 68,000 people since early 2025.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Charlottesville MSA unemployment", "value": "2.7%", "context": "vs 3.6% Virginia, 4.1% national (most recent available)"}, {"label": "Virginia labor force decline", "value": "-68,000", "context": "Since early 2025, tied to retirements, out-migration"}, {"label": "Virginia labor force participation", "value": "62.8%", "context": "10-year state low, down 0.2 pts in August"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest real-wage position since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Charlottesville is an outlier, not a bellwether, within Virginia.", "body": "A sub-3% unemployment rate against a statewide 3.6% and national 4.1% reflects tourism, state government and University-anchored stability rather than a leading indicator of where Virginia's broader labor market is headed. Commerce leaders should be cautious about extrapolating state-level softness onto local conditions without metro-specific confirmation."}, {"headline": "Statewide labor force exodus could become a local supply release valve.", "body": "Virginia's civilian labor force has contracted by about 68,000 since early 2025, driven largely by retirements and departures tied to federal workforce reductions concentrated in Northern Virginia. Some of that displaced capacity may migrate toward lower-cost, higher-stability metros like Charlottesville, a trend worth tracking rather than assuming."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation gap is a statewide and national story, not yet a local one.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage position since 2021, while Virginia's statewide average weekly wage still rose 4.1% year-over-year. Local wage data lags, but commerce leaders should watch whether Charlottesville's advertised pay trends start to reflect the national erosion in purchasing power."}, {"headline": "Public-sector volatility statewide contrasts with local public-sector stability.", "body": "Virginia lost 2,100 government jobs in August even as health care and professional services grew, yet Charlottesville's state government and University-linked employment base has shown no comparable strain in available reporting. That stability is a meaningful differentiator for a metro economy where public-sector payrolls are a structural anchor."}], "local_conditions": "Charlottesville's metro unemployment rate sat at roughly 2.7% as of the most recent available reading, nearly a full point below Virginia's 3.6% and the national 4.1%, insulated so far from the statewide labor force contraction tied to federal workforce reductions and out-migration from Northern Virginia. Tourism, anchored by Monticello and downtown visitor traffic generating an estimated $1 billion in regional activity last year, alongside steady state government and University-linked employment, continues to anchor local demand even as Virginia as a whole posts its second straight year of projected net job losses.", "implications": "Divergence between Charlottesville's resilience and Virginia's statewide softening \u2014 the Commonwealth's labor force has shrunk by roughly 68,000 people since early 2025 \u2014 suggests the metro is drawing relative strength from sectors (tourism, education, healthcare) that are less exposed to federal and professional-services contraction concentrated in Northern Virginia. For commerce leaders, this points to a local business climate still supportive of expansion or investment even as statewide headlines turn cautious, though the same dynamics mean regional labor supply is tight rather than slack. Local officials and chambers should consider monitoring whether Northern Virginia's professional-services and federal-adjacent layoffs begin redirecting displaced workers toward Charlottesville, which could ease labor supply pressure without signaling local economic weakness.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Virginia Employment Commission and BLS are scheduled to release September state and metro unemployment data on October 20, 2026, which will offer the first official confirmation of whether Charlottesville's resilience held through the month."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Virginia's labor force participation rate fell to a 10-year low of 62.8% in August; watch whether Charlottesville's own participation trend diverges from or tracks that statewide decline once county-level data catches up."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth falling behind inflation for the first time since 2021 could eventually pressure local consumer spending, even in a metro with low unemployment; local retail and hospitality activity are worth monitoring as an early signal."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN notices, including closures at Owens & Minor and Bechtel Power Corporation, remain concentrated outside the Charlottesville MSA, but any filings naming Central Virginia employers in the next 60 days would mark a meaningful shift from current patterns."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26669.0, "metro_p50": 29869.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27121.25, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30388.0, "metro_p50": 33956.0, "metro_p75": 38996.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59238.0, "metro_p50": 77598.0, "metro_p75": 88623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29644.0, "metro_p50": 31811.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31444.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55958.0, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31720.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28655.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 34840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33357.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41831.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 42474.0, "metro_p75": 47682.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58051.0, "metro_p50": 70720.0, "metro_p75": 72935.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86067.0, "metro_p50": 103376.0, "metro_p75": 112320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103481.75, "metro_p50": 146000.0, "metro_p75": 165000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97306.0, "metro_p50": 117292.4, "metro_p75": 126787.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57411.5, "metro_p50": 69439.0, "metro_p75": 82765.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 78085.6, "metro_p75": 99547.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62251.25, "metro_p50": 68643.0, "metro_p75": 82286.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55528.0, "metro_p50": 59275.0, "metro_p75": 73182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61592.0, "metro_p50": 84853.4, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37960.0, "metro_p50": 58806.0, "metro_p75": 64577.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63000.0, "metro_p50": 85991.0, "metro_p75": 117234.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80849.0, "metro_p50": 95186.0, "metro_p75": 111890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60522.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 88057.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34195.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 106050.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51735.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 95212.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 90256.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64965.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:20.068842+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/charlottesville-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}