{"schema_version": 1, "id": "champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 135, "label": "Champaign-Urbana, IL MSA", "slug": "champaign-urbana-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:17:03.802726+00:00", "headline": "Champaign jobs hit records while shift-lead pay quietly slips.", "headline_summary": "Champaign-Urbana unemployment fell to 3.5% from 4.2% a year ago, yet advertised pay for Shift Manager roles dropped to $34,840 even as national rates held near $33,024.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Down from 4.2% a year ago (Sept 2025)"}, {"label": "Illinois leisure/hospitality wage", "value": "$636/week", "context": "Lowest of any sector statewide, vs $1,256 avg"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic benchmark"}, {"label": "Champaign County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,277", "context": "Up 1.9% year-over-year, Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Local unemployment is tightening faster than the state average.", "body": "Champaign's 3.5% rate compares to Illinois's 4.6%, suggesting restaurant operators here face a shallower local labor pool than statewide averages imply. Recruitment timelines and advertised pay competitiveness should be benchmarked against metro conditions as the primary reference point."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay for shift leads is softening against a tightening market.", "body": "Shift Manager advertised pay is down moderately to $34,840 locally even as the national figure holds near $33,024, an unusual divergence given record local employment. Current conditions suggest operators may be testing lower offers before candidate scarcity forces a correction."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule changes create new flexibility, and new compliance exposure.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets employers apply the $2.13 tipped wage to non-tip side work without the prior 20% cap, a federal shift that could lower FOH labor costs during slow dayparts. Illinois retains its own $9.00 tipped cash wage floor, so the practical benefit depends on how local wage-and-hour counsel interprets state and federal interaction."}, {"headline": "Cook demand growth is outpacing server demand on a structural basis.", "body": "BLS projects 12% growth in cook employment through 2035 versus 2% for servers, and Champaign's Line Cook advertised pay ($37,440) already sits above Server pay ($33,904) by a wider margin than typical FOH/BOH gaps. Compensation strategy built around historical FOH-heavy wage pressure may need rebalancing toward BOH retention."}], "local_conditions": "Champaign-Urbana's unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September, down from 4.2% a year earlier, with the metro posting record job counts even as its labor force stays flat at roughly 122,400 employed \u2014 a tight labor pool for an industry that depends on continuous rehiring. Statewide, leisure and hospitality carries the lowest average weekly wage of any sector at $636, meaning restaurant operators here are competing for workers against a backdrop of 3.9% Chicago-area wage growth and a $15 Illinois minimum wage floor with no scheduled increase.", "implications": "Record local employment combined with national turnover near 80% means Champaign operators are rehiring into a labor pool with fewer slack workers than a year ago, raising the cost of every vacancy in front-of-house roles where turnover already runs near 21% annually. Advertised pay for Crew ($29,805) and Shift Manager ($34,840) roles is softening locally even as the labor market tightens, a divergence that may reflect menu-price-driven cost discipline amid easing demand for workers. Consider evaluating whether current advertised rates for entry-level and shift-lead roles are keeping pace with local labor force tightness and national wage benchmarks alike.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Champaign's labor force has held near 122,400 for months despite record job counts, suggesting little slack is entering the market. Watch whether University of Illinois seasonal enrollment patterns loosen the part-time labor pool as winter break approaches."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Illinois' Paid Leave for All Workers Act adds a fixed per-hour accrual cost across all payroll, compounding typical winter staffing reductions. Seasonal operators should model this against October-January scheduling cuts as a variable cost tied to that window."}, {"category": "Policy to track", "body": "Federal 80/20 rule withdrawal creates a compliance gap between federal and Illinois tipped-wage rules. Multi-state or multi-jurisdiction operators should confirm whether local counsel has reconciled the two before adjusting tipped-role pay practices."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Shift Manager and Crew advertised pay are both trending down locally while metro unemployment tightens \u2014 a gap that historically closes through either eroding candidate quality or a pay correction. Watch November-December advertised pay movement for early signs of which direction it resolves."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28462.0, "metro_p50": 37392.0, "metro_p75": 43160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38968.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24850.25, "metro_p50": 29805.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 59979.6, "metro_p75": 60320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 33904.0, "metro_p75": 35565.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Champaign-Urbana unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois leisure and hospitality average weekly wage of $636"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% vs waiters 2%, 2025-2035"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover hit approximately 80%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Food/beverage serving worker turnover near 21% annually"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:41.287683+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}