{"schema_version": 1, "id": "champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 135, "label": "Champaign-Urbana, IL MSA", "slug": "champaign-urbana-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:31:59.690425+00:00", "headline": "Champaign-Urbana crew pay retreats as labor pool stays tight.", "headline_summary": "Crew advertised pay fell significantly to $29,481 in Champaign-Urbana even as metro unemployment held at a tight 3.6%, well below Illinois' 4.7% statewide rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.6%", "context": "vs 4.7% Illinois statewide, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm job growth", "value": "+0.3%", "context": "Year-over-year through June 2026"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}, {"label": "Illinois food services employment", "value": "448.80K", "context": "+1.22% m/m, -0.11% y/y, Sept 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Entry-level pay is retreating faster here than nationally.", "body": "Crew advertised pay dropped significantly in Champaign-Urbana versus a stable national trend, and Shift Manager pay fell moderately against a flat national figure. This divergence may reflect easing turnover pressure locally, but operators should confirm it isn't simply underbidding a market that remains at 3.6% unemployment."}, {"headline": "Tight labor supply hasn't translated into broad job growth.", "body": "Metro nonfarm employment rose just 0.3% year-over-year through June even as unemployment sits near a multi-year low, consistent with employers struggling to find qualified candidates rather than choosing not to hire. Staffing plans built on assumptions of abundant local labor supply should be stress-tested against this gap."}, {"headline": "National openings data is cooling, but this metro runs its own cycle.", "body": "Accommodation and food services job openings nationally fell from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, suggesting reduced competition for workers broadly. Champaign-Urbana's structurally low unemployment rate means that national easing may not fully reach a market this tight \u2014 local recruiting difficulty likely persists longer than national headlines imply."}, {"headline": "Illinois' wage-policy certainty is a planning asset, not a given.", "body": "Statewide minimum wage holds at $15.00 with no scheduled 2026 increases, unlike Chicago's climb toward full tipped-wage parity by 2028. Downstate operators retain multi-year cost predictability that Chicago-based peers lack \u2014 a distinction worth building into multi-year labor cost models and new-unit site selection."}], "local_conditions": "Champaign-Urbana's unemployment rate held at 3.6% in August, among the tightest readings in Illinois and well below the state's 4.7%, even as total nonfarm employment grew just 0.3% year-over-year through June \u2014 a labor market where bodies remain scarce despite tepid job creation. That combination, layered onto national restaurant job openings falling from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, suggests the local scramble for hourly labor is easing in volume but not in difficulty \u2014 fewer open roles, but a shallow candidate pool to fill them.", "implications": "Crew advertised pay in the metro fell significantly year-over-year to $29,481, even as Shift Manager pay dropped moderately to $34,812 \u2014 a signal that entry-level wage competition has cooled faster locally than nationally, where Crew pay held stable. That divergence gives operators near-term room to hold the line on entry-level starting rates, but a 3.6% unemployment floor means any renewed hiring push will run into the same supply constraints that drove up pay in prior years. Consider reviewing whether current Crew and Shift Manager advertised rates still clear the local market, rather than assuming last year's wage pressure has permanently reset the baseline.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "September's unemployment reading for Champaign-Urbana has not yet posted; confirmation of whether 3.6% holds or drifts will clarify whether the spring tightening cycle has fully reversed or is stabilizing at a new, tighter floor."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Illinois food services employment ticked up 1.22% month-over-month into September but remains down 0.11% year-over-year statewide, a pattern consistent with seasonal autumn staffing offsetting a slower underlying hiring trend. Watch whether Champaign-Urbana's University of Illinois-driven fall semester hiring follows the same pattern locally."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National operators report 16% citing labor costs as their top 2026 challenge, with 49% planning retention investment over new hiring. Local operators competing for the same shrinking pool of hourly workers should weigh whether scheduling optimization and retention spend outperform wage increases as a margin-protecting lever this quarter."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Illinois Department of Labor enforcement actions on tip-credit shortfalls, including a recent case netting a server over $3,100 in backwages and damages, signal active audit risk. Multi-location operators should confirm weekly (not biweekly) tip-credit compliance before Q4 holiday staffing ramps up scrutiny on payroll practices."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28462.0, "metro_p50": 38074.6, "metro_p75": 42514.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39001.0, "metro_p50": 55120.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25356.0, "metro_p50": 29481.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33571.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 38588.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53689.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 60320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28797.0, "metro_p50": 33904.0, "metro_p75": 35565.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30085.0, "metro_p50": 34812.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:13.399184+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/champaign-urbana-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}