{"schema_version": 1, "id": "casper-wy-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 176, "label": "Casper, WY MSA", "slug": "casper-wy-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:20:38.831403+00:00", "headline": "Casper restaurant pay climbs for managers, stalls for hourly crews.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay hit a $65,126 median in Casper versus $59,724 nationally, while Server pay held flat at $30,361 against a 2.9% county unemployment rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Natrona County unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "vs 3.0% statewide, 4.2% U.S. (Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay, Casper", "value": "$65,126", "context": "vs $59,724 national median, up significantly"}, {"label": "Catering Manager pay, Casper", "value": "$70,000", "context": "vs $50,076 national, which is declining"}, {"label": "Restaurant industry turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "vs ~72% pre-pandemic baseline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is absorbing Casper's labor tightness; hourly wages are holding steady.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM and Catering Manager medians moved up significantly locally while Server, Crew and Line Cook pay held flat \u2014 a divergence that puts pressure on span-of-control and retention planning for the supervisors managing frontline churn."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay in Casper has pulled far ahead of the national trend.", "body": "A $70,000 local median against a $50,076 national figure, moving in opposite directions (up locally, down nationally), may signal a niche event or hospitality segment bidding aggressively for scarce talent in a 2.9%-unemployment county, pointing to a localized dynamic rather than a broad market shift."}, {"headline": "Tipped wage deregulation offers limited relief in a frozen-minimum state.", "body": "DOL's withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule loosens side-work wage obligations nationally, but Wyoming's unchanged $7.25 minimum and $2.13 tipped floor mean Casper operators gain little new pricing flexibility compared with states that already moved past federal parity."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house scarcity is a national signal Casper hasn't fully priced in yet.", "body": "BLS projects cook employment growing 12% through 2035 versus 2% for waiters, yet Casper's Line Cook median ($31,338) sits below the national figure ($37,421) \u2014 a gap that may understate local back-of-house recruiting difficulty given oil-and-gas sector wage competition."}], "local_conditions": "Natrona County's 2.9% unemployment rate and a tight 3.0% statewide labor market are colliding with restaurant-specific wage movement: Restaurant Manager/GM pay in Casper has climbed to a $65,126 median, well above the $59,724 national figure, while Catering Manager pay has jumped to $70,000 against a national median of $50,076. Hourly front-of-house roles \u2014 Server at $30,361 and Crew at $28,652 \u2014 remain flat, showing wage pressure concentrated in management tiers, with little spread into the broader staffing structure.", "implications": "Rising management compensation against flat hourly wages suggests Casper operators are competing for scarce supervisory talent, with entry-level labor markets comparatively calm, a pattern consistent with Wyoming's leisure and hospitality sector paying the lowest annual wages statewide at $29,520 even as turnover runs near 80% nationally. Labor cost as a share of revenue is likely shifting upward through management layers while frontline wage floors remain anchored near 2026's unchanged $7.25 minimum and $2.13 tipped wage. Consider reviewing whether management pay compression against hourly staff is widening fast enough to create retention gaps at the shift-lead level, where Shift Manager pay has also moved up significantly to $33,488.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Shift Manager and Assistant Restaurant Manager pay continues climbing in tandem with GM pay over the next two reporting cycles \u2014 a sign that management-tier wage pressure is structural and persists across multiple quarters."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Natrona County's November 23 unemployment release will show whether the 2.9% rate holds or tightens further, directly affecting how aggressively Casper operators need to bid for scarce hourly labor heading into holiday seasonal staffing."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Oil & gas extraction job losses (-26.9% locally) alongside pipeline transportation growth (+110.4%) suggest a reshuffling of the local wage-competitive landscape that restaurant operators draw entry-level labor from \u2014 monitor whether displaced workers enter the hospitality candidate pool."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Federal 80/20 rule withdrawal is reshaping tipped-wage economics in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi; if Wyoming's legislature revisits tipped wage policy in its next session, side-work staffing cost models could shift materially for Casper full-service operators."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40000.0, "metro_p50": 41983.0, "metro_p75": 45801.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24671.0, "metro_p50": 28652.0, "metro_p75": 29640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 31338.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 65125.6, "metro_p75": 72941.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 30361.4, "metro_p75": 33610.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29255.0, "metro_p50": 33488.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Natrona County's September 2026 unemployment rate at 2.9%"}, {"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wyoming leisure & hospitality average annual wage of $29,520"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrawal of the federal 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment growth of 12% vs 2% for waiters through 2035"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover near 80%, up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Natrona County oil & gas extraction jobs declined 26.9%, pipeline transportation up 110.4%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "casper-wy-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "casper-wy-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:36.573168+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/casper-wy-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/casper-wy-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}