{"schema_version": 1, "id": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 176, "label": "Casper, WY MSA", "slug": "casper-wy-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:30:46.952138+00:00", "headline": "Casper's energy sector churns as pipelines surge.", "headline_summary": "Natrona County unemployment sits at 2.9%, but oil and gas extraction fell 26.9% year-over-year even as pipeline transportation jobs more than doubled, pointing to reallocation within the energy economy.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Natrona County unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Sept. 2026, down from 3.0% YoY; vs. 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Oil & gas extraction employment", "value": "-26.9%", "context": "Loss of 109 jobs YoY, Natrona County"}, {"label": "Pipeline transportation employment", "value": "+110.4%", "context": "Added 149 jobs, 135 to 283, Natrona County"}, {"label": "Wyoming labor force participation", "value": "64.1%", "context": "vs. 62.2% U.S. average"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Energy-sector churn defines the local story.", "body": "Oil and gas extraction lost over a quarter of its county workforce year-over-year, yet pipeline transportation jobs more than doubled over the same period. Net nonfarm employment losses have been modest, consistent with workers and capital reallocating within the energy value chain."}, {"headline": "Registered nurse pay signals where real wage growth is concentrated.", "body": "Metro RN median pay of $105,072 is up significantly and now exceeds the national median, consistent with statewide gains in private education and health services (+2.5%), the fastest-growing sector in Wyoming. Health services appear to be the most reliable source of wage momentum in a metro otherwise marked by sector-specific contraction."}, {"headline": "Technical and professional pay is falling even as trades rise.", "body": "Software engineer pay dropped sharply to $77,489 (versus $154,403 nationally) and business analyst pay fell significantly locally, while construction laborer and manufacturing production worker pay both rose. Pattern is consistent with a metro economy weighted toward physical infrastructure and energy-adjacent work."}, {"headline": "County unemployment near 3% points to a thinning labor pool.", "body": "Wyoming's labor force participation rate (64.1%) outpaces the national rate (62.2%), but statewide nonfarm employment rose only 0.4% year-over-year and the county has logged job losses in multiple sectors. Low unemployment here appears to reflect a smaller available workforce as much as strong demand."}], "local_conditions": "Natrona County's unemployment rate held near multi-year lows at 2.9% in September, but the headline stability masks a sectoral reshuffling: oil and gas extraction shed 109 jobs (-26.9%) while pipeline transportation nearly doubled, adding 149 positions. Modest countywide job losses continue alongside this churn, consistent with an economy absorbing the tail end of energy-sector volatility while construction and transportation infrastructure work pick up slack.", "implications": "Divergence between contracting extraction employment and expanding pipeline/construction activity suggests the metro's economic base is shifting toward infrastructure and transport-linked work, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders read local business conditions. Wage data reinforce this: construction laborer pay rose significantly locally while software engineer and business analyst pay fell sharply, indicating energy-adjacent trades are absorbing demand that white-collar and technical roles are not. Local economic development conversations may benefit from tracking pipeline and construction permitting activity as a leading indicator, since the unemployment rate is lagging and currently obscures this sectoral shift.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Pipeline transportation's 110% year-over-year job growth warrants tracking against announced energy infrastructure projects; sustained growth would signal a durable shift in the local economic base beyond a one-time project effect."}, {"category": "Expected release", "body": "Wyoming's October unemployment figures publish November 23 and will be the first hard data point testing whether September's 2.9% county rate holds as oil and gas contraction continues."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued oil and gas extraction losses (-26.9% year-over-year) against broader state mining declines (-2.5%) raise the question of whether uranium-sector gains and pipeline growth can offset conventional extraction losses through 2027."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Bechtel's split from the TerraPower Natrium nuclear demonstration project, filed as a Wyoming layoff notice in October, is worth monitoring for ripple effects on the county's construction and energy-adjacent contractor base given the project's scale."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30673.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 29694.0, "metro_p75": 30888.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64582.5, "metro_p50": 81649.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30230.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57614.75, "metro_p50": 78888.8, "metro_p75": 101660.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36980.5, "metro_p50": 40324.8, "metro_p75": 49230.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32712.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35582.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33133.8, "metro_p75": 33504.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34307.0, "metro_p50": 36824.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34659.0, "metro_p50": 43954.4, "metro_p75": 45427.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56786.75, "metro_p50": 69200.0, "metro_p75": 73218.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84240.0, "metro_p50": 105072.4, "metro_p75": 116631.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59690.75, "metro_p50": 77489.2, "metro_p75": 93750.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 101117.0, "metro_p50": 130826.6, "metro_p75": 146387.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53933.75, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 73161.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83633.0, "metro_p50": 102345.0, "metro_p75": 112136.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52468.25, "metro_p50": 65076.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47691.0, "metro_p50": 80198.0, "metro_p75": 93183.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28600.0, "metro_p50": 56000.0, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62845.25, "metro_p50": 100392.4, "metro_p75": 107075.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67318.25, "metro_p50": 75528.6, "metro_p75": 88638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64929.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54990.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 36657.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 74916.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 59500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30020.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65349.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services Research & Planning", "source_url": null, "statement": "Natrona County unemployment rate was 2.9% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oil and gas extraction declined 109 jobs (-26.9%) in Natrona County"}, {"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services Labor Market Information", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pipeline transportation employment rose 149 jobs, a 110.4% increase"}, {"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wyoming labor force participation rate of 64.1% vs. national 62.2%"}, {"source_name": "Wyoming Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Private education and health services led Wyoming sector growth at 2.5%"}, {"source_name": "Wyoming WARN notice reporting", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bechtel filed a Wyoming layoff notice tied to TerraPower Natrium project split"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:36.238925+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}