{"schema_version": 1, "id": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 176, "label": "Casper, WY MSA", "slug": "casper-wy-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:26.309403+00:00", "headline": "Casper's low jobless rate hides a shrinking job count.", "headline_summary": "Natrona County unemployment near 2.6%-3.0% looks strong against the 4.2% national rate, but nonfarm employment fell for five straight months to 40,200 jobs even as local sales tax collections rose nearly 6%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Natrona County unemployment", "value": "2.6%-3.0%", "context": "vs 4.2% U.S. rate, as of mid-2026"}, {"label": "Nonfarm payroll trend", "value": "40,200 jobs", "context": "Down 800 YoY, 5th straight month of losses (Jan 2026)"}, {"label": "Local sales tax growth", "value": "~6% increase", "context": "Natrona County, despite employment declines"}, {"label": "Metro vs. national average wage", "value": "$28.93/hr", "context": "vs $33.54/hr nationally (May 2025)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment masks a shrinking labor base, not strength.", "body": "Natrona County's unemployment rate near 2.6%-3.0% looks favorable against the 4.2% national figure, but it coincides with five consecutive months of nonfarm job losses through early 2026. A tightening rate driven by workforce contraction reads differently than one driven by hiring growth, and the two call for different local economic assumptions."}, {"headline": "Consumer spending is outrunning the job count.", "body": "Sales tax collections rose nearly 6% even as total payrolls fell, and Q4 2025 total payroll dollars rose 3.3% despite 203 fewer jobs. This is consistent with wage gains concentrating in fewer, higher-paid positions rather than broad employment growth \u2014 a dynamic worth tracking for how durable that spending pattern is."}, {"headline": "Casper's pay gap with the nation is wide and uneven by sector.", "body": "Average hourly wages in the Casper MSA ($28.93) sit meaningfully below the national average ($33.54), yet locally advertised pay for registered nurses, electricians, and accountants is rising faster than national medians. Divergence by occupation suggests competitive pressure is sector-specific, not economy-wide, and uniform assumptions about local cost of labor may mislead planning."}, {"headline": "Mining's structural decline is a state and local revenue signal.", "body": "Statewide mining employment fell 3.8% in Q1 2026 with projected further losses, mirroring softness in the same sector locally. Because mining has historically anchored Wyoming public revenue, continued contraction carries fiscal planning implications beyond the labor market itself."}], "local_conditions": "Natrona County unemployment held near 2.6%-3.0% through mid-2026, well below the national 4.2% rate, even as total nonfarm employment in the county fell for five straight months into early 2026 to 40,200 jobs. That combination \u2014 tight labor supply alongside a shrinking job base and a nearly 6% jump in Natrona County sales tax collections \u2014 appears to reflect a local economy where fewer workers are producing steady consumer activity rather than one expanding on new hiring.", "implications": "Job losses concentrated in sectors like mining and health care/social assistance, paired with wage gains in construction and registered nursing locally, suggest the metro's economic base is narrowing even as pockets of demand intensify. Commerce leaders weighing local investment or expansion should treat Casper's low unemployment rate as a labor-supply constraint rather than a growth signal, since it reflects a thinning workforce as much as strong demand. Current conditions suggest reviewing which sectors are actually adding payroll locally \u2014 healthcare and skilled trades versus manufacturing and mining \u2014 before treating the low jobless rate as an all-clear for broad-based expansion.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "September 2026 BLS data for the Casper MSA won't post until early November, and the most current official figure dates to April 2026. Government economists and commerce leaders should treat near-term local readings as lagging indicators and lean on sales tax and payroll-dollar trends in the interim."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Five straight months of county job losses through early 2026 raises the question of whether the trend has stabilized or continued into the second half of the year. Watch whether Q3 2026 payroll counts, once released, show a bottom or further erosion."}, {"category": "Structural watch", "body": "Statewide labor force contraction of 3,000+ people from 2024-2025, driven by aging demographics and youth outmigration, is a Wyoming-wide constraint likely playing out locally. A shrinking labor pool limits how much any uptick in local demand can translate into actual job growth."}, {"category": "Policy-neutral factor", "body": "National tariff and immigration enforcement policy continue to shape sector-level labor dynamics (manufacturing, construction, agriculture) without a clear uniform effect yet visible in Wyoming data. Commerce leaders should track sector-specific cost and labor-supply effects as bare facts rather than assume a uniform local impact."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26520.0, "metro_p50": 30566.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25989.5, "metro_p50": 29328.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64350.0, "metro_p50": 81404.6, "metro_p75": 85800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30878.0, "metro_p50": 34741.0, "metro_p75": 41492.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57615.0, "metro_p50": 77999.0, "metro_p75": 104000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 49000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32827.0, "metro_p50": 35909.2, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33201.6, "metro_p75": 33504.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34353.5, "metro_p50": 37793.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33557.5, "metro_p50": 42636.8, "metro_p75": 45427.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56786.25, "metro_p50": 69200.0, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84240.0, "metro_p50": 105131.0, "metro_p75": 117185.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59705.5, "metro_p50": 77953.4, "metro_p75": 111185.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 98968.25, "metro_p50": 128408.0, "metro_p75": 144231.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52930.0, "metro_p50": 64272.0, "metro_p75": 73161.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 87132.0, "metro_p50": 103590.0, "metro_p75": 113075.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51867.0, "metro_p50": 64103.0, "metro_p75": 73666.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53895.0, "metro_p50": 81509.0, "metro_p75": 88011.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66959.25, "metro_p50": 67211.6, "metro_p75": 67319.75, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28034.0, "metro_p50": 56863.0, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68167.0, "metro_p50": 100784.8, "metro_p75": 107562.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83253.75, "metro_p50": 97454.4, "metro_p75": 106088.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64376.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35859.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54696.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51531.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 66555.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 56288.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29307.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67296.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:09.822800+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/casper-wy-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}