{"schema_version": 1, "id": "carson-city-nv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 168, "label": "Carson City, NV MSA", "slug": "carson-city-nv-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:21.772229+00:00", "headline": "Carson City's jobs shrink while its jobless rate stays low.", "headline_summary": "Carson City held the state's lowest unemployment rate at 3.9% in August even as nonfarm payrolls fell 1.2% year-over-year, a labor-supply signal distinct from Nevada's statewide 5.3% rate and the national 4.2% reading.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Carson City unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Lowest of Nevada's 3 metros; state at 5.3%"}, {"label": "Carson City payroll change (YoY)", "value": "-1.2%", "context": "400 jobs lost since August 2025"}, {"label": "Nevada average hourly wage growth", "value": "6.37%", "context": "Fastest of any U.S. state, past year"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages turned negative, Sept 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Carson City's job losses are not a demand problem.", "body": "Nonfarm payrolls dropped 400 jobs year-over-year even as unemployment held near a multi-year low of 3.9%, a pattern consistent with labor-supply constraints rather than weakening local demand. Population growth lagging job creation since 2020 helps explain the gap."}, {"headline": "Public-sector concentration is a stabilizer, not a drag, this cycle.", "body": "State Government ranks as the metro's top employment category, insulating Carson City from the national trend of government payroll reductions (down 216,000 nationally over the past year) and from Las Vegas's tourism-linked softening."}, {"headline": "Wage-vs-inflation picture looks better on paper than in practice.", "body": "Nevada's statewide average hourly wage grew 6.37% over the year, fastest in the nation, but national real wages turned negative as inflation (3.4%) outpaced wage growth (3.0%) in September. Carson City's smaller, public/healthcare-heavy base may track the state figure more than the national one, but local wage data remains too thin to confirm."}, {"headline": "Housing costs, not payroll trends, may be the real constraint.", "body": "Statewide commentary flags housing affordability outpacing wage growth as Nevada's most significant structural economic challenge, a dynamic that compounds Carson City's population stagnation and could limit how much new business activity the local labor force can absorb."}], "local_conditions": "Carson City's unemployment rate held at 3.9% in August, the lowest among Nevada's three metro areas, even as total nonfarm employment fell 400 jobs (-1.2%) year-over-year, a divergence that appears to reflect a shrinking labor pool rather than surging demand. State Government, restaurant/food service, and hospital employment remain the metro's top three industry anchors, giving the local economy a stability buffer that Las Vegas and Reno's more tourism- and construction-exposed labor markets lack this cycle.", "implications": "Falling payroll counts alongside a sub-4% jobless rate point to a labor-supply story \u2014 population growth has lagged job growth since 2020, meaning available workers, not demand, may be the binding constraint on local business expansion. For commerce leaders evaluating whether this is a good window to expand locally, the data suggest a tight but shrinking labor base paired with a concentrated public-sector and healthcare employment base that limits exposure to the national slowdown in white-collar hiring. Consider reviewing workforce-availability assumptions before committing to expansion plans that depend on hiring from the local labor pool, given five consecutive months of payroll declines.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether September's state and metro unemployment figures, delayed by federal shutdown-related reporting lags, confirm Carson City's 3.9% reading or show convergence toward Nevada's statewide 5.3% rate."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Population projections point to 2.1% growth between 2025 and 2030 after a 0.6% decline since 2020; any acceleration in net in-migration would ease the labor-supply constraint behind recent payroll declines."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Nevada's AI-infrastructure buildout and continued state diversification away from gambling/entertainment could eventually extend into the Carson City corridor, a trend commerce leaders should track for secondary investment spillover."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "National wage-inflation divergence (3.0% wage growth vs 3.4% CPI) bears watching for whether it filters down to consumer spending in a metro already showing soft payroll trends."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29037.0, "metro_p50": 35568.0, "metro_p75": 42032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27715.0, "metro_p50": 34580.0, "metro_p75": 35620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32955.0, "metro_p50": 40235.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52211.0, "metro_p50": 70261.6, "metro_p75": 77478.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31427.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39455.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35247.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55885.0, "metro_p50": 68663.0, "metro_p75": 75920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30998.0, "metro_p50": 36059.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35162.75, "metro_p50": 39057.0, "metro_p75": 42813.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28197.0, "metro_p50": 32324.0, "metro_p75": 36982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34000.0, "metro_p50": 44348.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29725.5, "metro_p50": 41040.6, "metro_p75": 48055.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61655.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 82299.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81015.5, "metro_p50": 95068.0, "metro_p75": 104204.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120561.0, "metro_p50": 155079.6, "metro_p75": 173000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99285.0, "metro_p50": 145016.8, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59565.0, "metro_p50": 71756.8, "metro_p75": 79824.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74378.0, "metro_p50": 98000.0, "metro_p75": 105678.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52916.0, "metro_p50": 83107.2, "metro_p75": 90109.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43441.75, "metro_p50": 58052.0, "metro_p75": 70694.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 80948.6, "metro_p75": 83500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50695.0, "metro_p50": 62008.4, "metro_p75": 65645.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63949.0, "metro_p50": 96593.0, "metro_p75": 117774.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 78866.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83394.5, "metro_p50": 98605.8, "metro_p75": 110918.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 90000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 115000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 94619.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 79000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 136701.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 111556.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 92590.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 72910.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 56165.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72461.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "carson-city-nv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "carson-city-nv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "carson-city-nv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:09.070009+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/carson-city-nv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/carson-city-nv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}