{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 160, "label": "Cape Girardeau-Jackson, MO-IL MSA", "slug": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:18:40.110587+00:00", "headline": "Server pay surges in Cape Girardeau while cook wages stall.", "headline_summary": "Metro server pay climbed significantly to $33,579 while line cook pay held flat at $31,461, against a Missouri minimum wage locked at $15.00 with no inflation adjustment through 2027.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.0%-3.8%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Server advertised pay", "value": "$33,579", "context": "Up significantly; national flat at $35,024"}, {"label": "Line cook advertised pay", "value": "$31,461", "context": "Stable vs national $37,421"}, {"label": "Missouri minimum wage", "value": "$15.00/hr", "context": "Locked through 2027, no CPI indexing"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay is rising fast while cook pay stands still.", "body": "Local server pay jumped significantly to a $33,579 median while line cook pay held flat at $31,461 \u2014 a gap that may push back-of-house staff toward front-of-house roles if tip income outpaces hourly wage growth. Retention strategy should weigh cross-role pay equity alongside role-by-role benchmarks."}, {"headline": "Missouri's wage floor removes a lever but leaves the pressure intact.", "body": "The $15.00 minimum wage with CPI indexing repealed gives operators multi-year cost certainty on paper, but a 3.0%-3.8% metro unemployment rate means labor scarcity remains the active constraint on staffing, separate from statutory wage inflation. Budget predictability does not equal hiring ease."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation creates a national lever Missouri doesn't fully offer.", "body": "DOL's withdrawal of the 80/20 rule federally reduces side-work wage obligations in several states, but Missouri's $7.50 tipped minimum structure limits how much operators here can use that flexibility to offset labor costs compared to peers in deregulated states."}, {"headline": "Crew pay gains outpace the national trend.", "body": "Crew advertised pay rose moderately to $31,200 locally versus a stable $30,066 nationally, suggesting Cape Girardeau quick-service and counter operations are facing sharper entry-level competition than the broader market \u2014 a signal for QSR operators benchmarking against national data alone."}], "local_conditions": "Cape Girardeau metro unemployment has tracked near 3.0%-3.8% through 2026, well below the national 4.1% rate, leaving restaurant operators competing for workers in a labor pool with little slack to absorb seasonal demand swings. State-level wage policy has moved decisively against this tight supply: Missouri's $15.00 minimum wage, locked in since January with CPI indexing repealed, now sets a firm floor on back-of-house labor costs through at least 2027.", "implications": "Flat line cook pay at $31,461 against a fixed $15/hour state floor signals operators have little room left to compete on back-of-house base wages alone, pushing differentiation toward scheduling stability, advancement pathways, and non-wage retention levers. Server pay climbing significantly to $33,579 locally, against a stable national median of $35,024, suggests Cape Girardeau operators are bidding up front-of-house total compensation faster than the rest of the country to hold onto a thin tipped-labor pool. Consider reviewing whether front-of-house pay gains are closing the gap with back-of-house roles fast enough to prevent cross-role turnover as cooks eye server tip income.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether the server-to-cook pay gap widens further in coming months; continued divergence may accelerate internal transfers from kitchen to front-of-house and compound back-of-house vacancy rates heading into the holiday season."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "Missouri's $15.00 minimum wage is locked through at least 2027 with no CPI adjustment, but statehouse activity on tipped-wage credit rules could still shift front-of-house cost structures \u2014 operators should track any legislative movement before building 2027 labor budgets."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National retention data shows restaurant turnover near 80% with 70% of operators citing difficult-to-fill openings; local operators should track whether Cape Girardeau's tighter-than-national unemployment rate (3.0%-3.8% vs 4.1%) is producing even sharper fill-time delays than peer metros."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Catering Manager pay fell moderately both locally ($48,125) and nationally ($50,076), a signal worth tracking for early softening in event and off-premise demand that could affect banquet and catering staffing plans into Q1."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35334.0, "metro_p50": 38662.0, "metro_p75": 40126.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 36243.0, "metro_p50": 48125.4, "metro_p75": 55090.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25092.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28600.0, "metro_p50": 31461.0, "metro_p75": 33097.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48357.5, "metro_p50": 57001.0, "metro_p75": 57407.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24681.0, "metro_p50": 33579.0, "metro_p75": 34050.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27747.25, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33435.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cape Girardeau-Jackson MSA unemployment near 3.0%-3.8% through 2026"}, {"source_name": "Missouri HB 567", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri minimum wage set at $15.00/hour, CPI indexing repealed"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "National restaurant turnover near 80%, 70% report difficult-to-fill openings"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate at 4.1% in October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:32.221471+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}