{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 160, "label": "Cape Girardeau-Jackson, MO-IL MSA", "slug": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:29:45.604684+00:00", "headline": "Cape Girardeau holds tight labor market as state job growth slows.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment near 3.0% continues to outperform Missouri's 3.6% and the national 4.1%, even as manufacturing wages climb locally while professional-services pay falls against national trends.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs 3.6% Missouri, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Missouri monthly job change", "value": "-10,600 (Sept)", "context": "offset by +28,400 year-over-year"}, {"label": "Manufacturing production worker pay", "value": "$37,440 (up, significant)", "context": "vs national $39,520, stable"}, {"label": "Missouri WARN-affected workers 2026", "value": "3,029 workers", "context": "down 41% from 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Manufacturing pay strength signals a production-driven local economy.", "body": "Manufacturing production worker pay rose significantly locally while national manufacturing pay held flat, and Missouri manufacturing added jobs statewide even as other sectors cut. For a metro with Bollinger County's manufacturing base already its largest employer category, this points to production activity as a disproportionate driver of local economic momentum."}, {"headline": "Professional-services pay is falling here while rising nationally.", "body": "Financial analyst pay dropped significantly locally against national gains, and software engineer and data engineer pay fell as well, a pattern that diverges sharply from the national information-sector wage story. That gap may suggest the metro's small professional-services base is more exposed to local-specific softness than to the national white-collar slowdown."}, {"headline": "The metro's unemployment edge over state and nation looks durable.", "body": "At 3.0% versus Missouri's 3.6% and the national 4.1%, Cape Girardeau's labor market has held meaningfully tighter than both benchmarks through multiple readings. That persistence, even amid Missouri's September statewide job losses, is consistent with a local economy less exposed to the sectors driving state-level softness."}, {"headline": "Data lag is itself a local economic story worth flagging.", "body": "Official metro-level employment figures run roughly two months behind national releases, meaning commerce leaders and press are currently working from August conditions to describe an October economy. That gap matters most precisely when national and state signals are shifting quickly, as they are now."}], "local_conditions": "Cape Girardeau-Jackson's labor market remains tight by any historical measure, with the metro's most recent unemployment reading of 3.0% sitting well below both the national rate of 4.1% and Missouri's statewide 3.6%, even as official BLS data lags through August 2026 and has not yet caught up to the national picture of cooling momentum. Local wage data shows a split economy: manufacturing production work (+significant) and CDL trucking (+moderate) are advertising higher pay even as software engineering, financial analysis, and electrician pay have fallen significantly, suggesting the metro's wage pressure is concentrated in production and logistics work.", "implications": "Divergence between manufacturing/logistics wage strength and professional-services wage softening suggests the metro's economic base is being pulled forward by production and distribution activity, a pattern commerce leaders should weigh when assessing which sectors justify local investment or expansion incentives this cycle. Missouri's statewide September job losses (-10,600) alongside Cape Girardeau's persistently low unemployment indicate the metro may be more insulated than state headlines suggest, but the absence of current local WARN or employer-specific news makes it harder to confirm momentum is holding into Q4. Current conditions suggest economic development offices should prioritize closing the local data lag \u2014 pressing state labor officials or regional workforce boards for interim indicators \u2014 so investment and incentive decisions can be made on current data rather than figures two months stale.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "September and October BLS figures for the Cape Girardeau-Jackson MSA have not yet posted; watch for the release (typically a four-week lag) to confirm whether the metro's sub-4% unemployment edge held through Q3."}, {"category": "Sector divergence to track", "body": "Manufacturing and logistics wage strength locally contrasts with Missouri's statewide trade/transportation and professional-services declines in September; confirm whether local manufacturing employers are expanding or simply raising advertised pay against a static base."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant indicator", "body": "Missouri's minimum wage rose to $15.00 per hour effective January 2026 under HB 567, with no further CPI-linked increases scheduled; watch regional retail and food-service advertised pay, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, for signs of compression given food service pay here already fell significantly."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (3,860 notices, 340,316 workers through late October) concentrated in tech and large-employer sectors with little direct metro overlap; absence of local WARN activity this month is itself worth confirming."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26001.0, "metro_p50": 31970.0, "metro_p75": 36546.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25938.0, "metro_p50": 28618.6, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30434.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35274.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66510.0, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 95931.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29029.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33986.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33067.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55366.25, "metro_p50": 61770.0, "metro_p75": 63025.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32188.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37719.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33363.0, "metro_p50": 35640.0, "metro_p75": 37477.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28631.0, "metro_p50": 31699.4, "metro_p75": 36629.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 35576.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 36650.0, "metro_p75": 38370.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61842.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 68188.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84294.0, "metro_p50": 100537.0, "metro_p75": 110507.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88614.25, "metro_p50": 88652.8, "metro_p75": 99937.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 94571.0, "metro_p50": 124875.0, "metro_p75": 142500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58889.75, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 69878.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59396.0, "metro_p50": 68959.0, "metro_p75": 93927.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63637.0, "metro_p50": 87198.0, "metro_p75": 95500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48845.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 69316.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66901.25, "metro_p50": 80684.0, "metro_p75": 87685.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26093.0, "metro_p50": 42049.2, "metro_p75": 51992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61584.0, "metro_p50": 63135.0, "metro_p75": 69550.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 81594.0, "metro_p75": 103119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79096.0, "metro_p50": 95680.0, "metro_p75": 105594.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 73077.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70618.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 69582.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 68640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 47144.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 60955.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 96143.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63010.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cape Girardeau-Jackson MSA unemployment rate of 3.0%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Missouri Dept. of Economic Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri lost 10,600 jobs in September 2026 statewide"}, {"source_name": "Missouri Dept. of Economic Development, Current Employment Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri manufacturing employment and sector job counts"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October"}, {"source_name": "Missouri General Assembly / Office of the Governor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri minimum wage increased to $15.00/hour under HB 567"}, {"source_name": "LayoffAlert / state WARN trackers", "source_url": null, "statement": "3,860 WARN notices affecting 340,316 workers nationally through Oct 26"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:31.892990+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}