{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 160, "label": "Cape Girardeau-Jackson, MO-IL MSA", "slug": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:17.331405+00:00", "headline": "Cape Girardeau unemployment near 20-year low, but hiring demand is cooling.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment tracks Missouri's 3.2% statewide rate -- the lowest since January 2000 -- even as statewide job postings fell 11.7% year-over-year and national wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs 4.2% national, matches MO statewide low"}, {"label": "Missouri job postings YoY", "value": "-11.7%", "context": "70,510 vs 79,830 a year earlier"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest real-wage gap since May 2021"}, {"label": "Cape Girardeau County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,037", "context": "Up 1.6% YoY, Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment masks a cooling demand signal.", "body": "Metro and state unemployment sit near multi-decade lows, yet Missouri job postings fell nearly 12% year-over-year and several metro advertised-pay figures (construction laborer, delivery driver, food service worker) declined. Tight labor supply and soft hiring demand can coexist -- a sign of a market stabilizing rather than accelerating."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and nursing pay gains outpace white-collar roles locally.", "body": "Manufacturing production/assembler pay rose significantly and registered nurse pay rose in step with national gains, while software engineer, data engineer, and financial analyst pay in the metro moved down. Resembles the national split between hands-on sector strength and white-collar softness, suggesting local economic resilience is concentrated in production and health care rather than broad-based."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation gap is now a national headwind, not just a local one.", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% annually against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage position since 2021, reversing two years of real gains. Local wage data (Cape Girardeau County average weekly wage up 1.6% year-over-year) suggests the metro has not escaped this dynamic, with implications for retail and services spending capacity."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability remains a local anchor amid national government cuts.", "body": "National data shows government payrolls shedding workers for a 216,000 decline over the past year, while Missouri's education and health services sectors added jobs in August. Metro public-sector employment has shown no comparable contraction signal, making it a relative stabilizer worth tracking as a counterweight to private-sector softness."}], "local_conditions": "Cape Girardeau metro unemployment held at 3.2% as of the most recent reading, well below the 4.2% national rate and tracking Missouri's statewide low of 3.2% -- its best mark since January 2000 -- even as national payroll growth slowed to 29,000 jobs in September and wage growth nationally fell behind inflation for the first time in two years. Locally, manufacturing-linked occupations such as production/assembler work posted significant advertised-pay gains while white-collar and retail-adjacent roles (software engineering, financial analyst, delivery driver, construction laborer) saw pay declines, a divergence consistent with the statewide pattern of durable-goods and professional-services strength against a broader national cooling.", "implications": "Sub-3.5% unemployment alongside falling advertised pay in several metro occupations points to a local labor pool that remains tight in absolute terms but where demand has softened enough that employers no longer need to bid up pay to fill roles -- a signal that local consumer spending momentum may be more fragile than the headline unemployment rate suggests. For commerce leaders evaluating expansion timing, the combination of low joblessness and cooling postings-growth (Missouri job postings down 11.7% year-over-year) suggests a market where labor is available but discretionary household income growth is not guaranteed. Consider monitoring local retail and food-service pay trends alongside regional CPI data before treating low unemployment alone as a green light for consumer-facing investment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS county-level and metro LAUS data for September 2026 is due in coming weeks; watch whether Cape Girardeau's unemployment rate holds near 3.2% or drifts toward the slower national pace of hiring."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Missouri job postings fell 11.7% year-over-year even as heavy-truck-driver postings rose 104%, a split that could widen if national freight and manufacturing trends diverge further from retail softness locally."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (over 313,000 affected workers tracked nationally as of late September) with no metro-specific notices identified yet; a shift in that pattern would be a leading indicator for local commercial real estate and retail vacancy conversations."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Missouri's HB 567 froze inflation-indexed minimum wage increases after the 2026 step to $15.00; watch whether this becomes a visible factor in metro retail and food-service advertised pay, which already show downward pressure."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26454.5, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 46307.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25785.0, "metro_p50": 28198.0, "metro_p75": 31709.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30432.5, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63878.0, "metro_p50": 83855.0, "metro_p75": 96200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29206.5, "metro_p50": 31316.4, "metro_p75": 33996.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32653.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57244.5, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 67880.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30915.5, "metro_p50": 37273.0, "metro_p75": 37836.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 35640.0, "metro_p75": 37478.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28631.0, "metro_p50": 31392.4, "metro_p75": 36629.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33598.0, "metro_p50": 35127.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 36459.4, "metro_p75": 38108.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61842.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 68188.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84655.0, "metro_p50": 102543.0, "metro_p75": 114967.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88614.25, "metro_p50": 88652.0, "metro_p75": 91013.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 93668.5, "metro_p50": 124845.0, "metro_p75": 141935.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58793.5, "metro_p50": 68473.6, "metro_p75": 70036.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58391.5, "metro_p50": 78909.4, "metro_p75": 94144.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66769.0, "metro_p50": 87198.0, "metro_p75": 106037.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66901.25, "metro_p50": 72348.0, "metro_p75": 84395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26093.0, "metro_p50": 42050.0, "metro_p75": 53353.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63005.0, "metro_p50": 63135.0, "metro_p75": 69550.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 87991.2, "metro_p75": 103119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78756.5, "metro_p50": 96253.0, "metro_p75": 106125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 73077.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 64905.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34746.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 70382.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 46488.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59674.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 96408.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63689.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:07.387393+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-girardeau-jackson-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}