{"schema_version": 1, "id": "cape-coral-fort-myers-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 123, "label": "Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL MSA", "slug": "cape-coral-fort-myers-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:12.684207+00:00", "headline": "Cape Coral splits: healthcare and tech gain as construction, logistics cool.", "headline_summary": "Cape Coral-Fort Myers unemployment near 4.8% as construction laborer and CDL driver advertised pay decline moderately-to-significantly even as registered nurse and software engineer pay rise, echoing a statewide pattern where Florida's 3.8%-4.5% jobless range masks sharply divergent sector momentum.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.8%", "context": "Dec 2025, up from 4.3% in Sept 2025"}, {"label": "Florida statewide unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Aug 2026, third straight monthly decline"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "-0.1% YoY", "context": "Aug 2025-Aug 2026, BLS Real Earnings"}, {"label": "Fort Myers WARN activity", "value": "1,360 workers", "context": "20 notices on file, below statewide intensity"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Cape Coral's construction and manufacturing softness tracks the state, not just the metro.", "body": "Advertised pay for construction laborers and manufacturing production workers both show moderate local declines, consistent with Florida's statewide year-over-year losses in construction and manufacturing employment. This reads as a sector-specific cooling tied to reduced private building activity rather than a broad metro downturn."}, {"headline": "Healthcare remains the metro's most reliable growth engine.", "body": "Registered nurse advertised pay is up moderately in Cape Coral even as national RN pay rises significantly, echoing Florida's statewide education-and-health-services sector adding the most jobs of any category. For economic development purposes, healthcare capacity expansion looks like the most structurally dependable local growth story this cycle."}, {"headline": "Logistics and delivery pay weakness may signal softer local consumer throughput.", "body": "CDL truck driver and delivery driver advertised pay both show significant local declines against stable national figures, a gap wide enough to suggest metro-specific softness in freight and last-mile delivery demand rather than a national trend passing through. Commerce leaders tracking retail and e-commerce activity locally may want to watch whether this reflects reduced consumer order volume or a temporary driver-supply surplus."}, {"headline": "Professional and technical pay gains suggest a quieter diversification story.", "body": "Software engineer, data engineer, financial analyst, and business analyst advertised pay are all up significantly in Cape Coral, outpacing several national comparisons. That pattern is consistent with a metro economy gradually adding higher-wage, non-tourism, non-construction activity alongside its traditional economic base."}], "local_conditions": "Cape Coral-Fort Myers labor force held near 377,000 through late 2025 as the metro's unemployment rate drifted toward 4.8%, slightly above the statewide 4.5% reading, even as Florida's broader job growth outpaced the national rate on gains concentrated in education and health services. Construction, manufacturing, and delivery/logistics advertised pay across the metro are flagging moderate-to-significant softening, consistent with statewide year-over-year losses in construction and manufacturing employment and a tightening but no longer acute worker-availability ratio statewide.", "implications": "Advertised pay movements in this metro diverge sharply by sector: construction labor, manufacturing assembly, delivery driving and CDL trucking are all trending down in Cape Coral even as healthcare pay (registered nurses, CNAs) and knowledge-economy roles (software engineering, data engineering, financial analysis) post moderate-to-significant gains, mirroring the national split between hands-on and white-collar momentum. For commerce leaders, this points to a local economy where consumer-facing and logistics-dependent business lines face softer cost pressure but also softer demand signals, while sectors tied to healthcare expansion and professional services show more durable momentum. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Florida's September 30 minimum wage increase to $15 (tipped $11.98) further compresses retail, food service, and hospitality wage differentials already visible in this metro's flat-to-declining advertised pay for those roles.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected policy shift", "body": "Florida's minimum wage rises to $15.00 (tipped $11.98) on September 30, with future increases tied to CPI. Watch whether Cape Coral's already-soft retail and food service advertised pay compress further against this floor, which would be a meaningful signal for local consumer-facing business margins."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Metro unemployment reached 4.8% in December 2025 against a 4.3% September 2025 reading, while the state's own unemployment trajectory has reversed for three straight months. Whether Cape Coral's rate follows the state's recent improvement or continues its own separate drift will be the clearest local momentum signal available in the next data release."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Fort Myers-area WARN filings remain modest at 20 notices covering 1,360 workers, well below statewide layoff intensity tied to events like the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy. A sustained low WARN count alongside softening construction and logistics pay would suggest quiet demand cooling rather than disruptive job loss, a materially different story for local economic messaging."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. If that gap persists into Florida's Q4 wage data, local purchasing power erosion could show up first in softer retail and food service activity, sectors where Cape Coral advertised pay is already flat or declining."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27797.0, "metro_p50": 32343.0, "metro_p75": 35514.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27092.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32985.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30663.75, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47826.0, "metro_p50": 75939.6, "metro_p75": 99450.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30336.0, "metro_p50": 33038.0, "metro_p75": 39750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32951.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40596.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 68640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33525.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35139.0, "metro_p50": 39039.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29885.0, "metro_p50": 32836.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33138.0, "metro_p50": 37544.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35216.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46488.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54839.25, "metro_p50": 68224.0, "metro_p75": 73350.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77270.0, "metro_p50": 91846.0, "metro_p75": 104003.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97500.0, "metro_p50": 127944.8, "metro_p75": 143465.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103073.0, "metro_p50": 128803.0, "metro_p75": 133500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 65557.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65851.0, "metro_p50": 91272.0, "metro_p75": 99388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56449.0, "metro_p50": 60941.0, "metro_p75": 70650.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52918.5, "metro_p50": 61189.2, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72643.0, "metro_p75": 87458.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36920.0, "metro_p50": 49047.0, "metro_p75": 52500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61238.0, "metro_p50": 72000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83423.75, "metro_p50": 95229.0, "metro_p75": 105793.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 67000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37011.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48207.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 79716.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62038.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33825.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62724.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "cape-coral-fort-myers-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "cape-coral-fort-myers-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "cape-coral-fort-myers-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:06.504969+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-coral-fort-myers-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/cape-coral-fort-myers-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}