{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 127, "label": "CA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:30:58.114610+00:00", "headline": "Rural California's recovery still trails the coast by a wide margin.", "headline_summary": "Inland unemployment readings near 8% in Fresno and Kern County contrast with a 5.1% statewide average and sub-5% coastal metros, while nonmetro health care pay (Registered Nurse at $126,215) pulls further ahead of flat manufacturing and retail wages.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "California unemployment rate", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Flat 3rd straight month; vs 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Inland county unemployment", "value": "7.9%-8.1%", "context": "Bakersfield-Delano, Fresno vs 5.1% state avg"}, {"label": "Statewide WARN filings (2026 YTD)", "value": "583 notices", "context": "65,139 workers affected through Oct 21"}, {"label": "CA education/health job gains", "value": "+14,200", "context": "September 2026, largest sector gain statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro California still lags the coastal recovery by a wide margin.", "body": "Statewide unemployment held at 5.1% for a third straight month, but inland counties like Fresno (8.1%) and Bakersfield-Delano (7.9%) sit well above that average, a pattern nonmetro areas have historically mirrored or exceeded. That gap is a more useful gauge of local economic health than the statewide figure alone."}, {"headline": "Care-economy pay is pulling away from the rest of the basket.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay rose significantly to a metro median of $126,215 and Certified Nursing Assistant pay rose to $55,640, both outpacing national medians by wide margins. Combined with statewide education/health services leading job gains (+14,200), this points to health care as the clearest source of sustained local economic activity."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing wage softness bears watching as a leading indicator.", "body": "Metro Manufacturing Production Worker pay moved down moderately to $37,843 even as the national figure held flat at $39,520, a divergence worth tracking against statewide manufacturing employment data as it becomes available. A localized wage decline in a tradeable-goods sector often precedes broader shifts in local business investment."}, {"headline": "Public-sector and skilled-trades pay gains suggest where stability is concentrated.", "body": "Electrician ($75,375) and CDL Truck Driver ($81,164) pay both rose significantly, alongside Operations Manager and Warehouse Manager pay \u2014 a pattern consistent with continued logistics, construction, and infrastructure-linked demand. That contrasts with flat pay in retail, customer service, and professional roles, suggesting the local economy's momentum is narrowly based rather than broad."}], "local_conditions": "California's rural and nonmetro counties continue to show the inland-coastal divide evident in September EDD data, with rural labor markets tracking closer to Fresno (8.1%) and Bakersfield-Delano (7.9%) unemployment levels than the state's 5.1% average or the 4.0%-4.7% readings in coastal metros. Agricultural seasonality, continued softness in leisure/hospitality (down 6,800 jobs statewide) and limited exposure to the tech and professional-services pullback squeezing coastal metros appear to be shaping a labor market defined more by structural slack than cyclical tightening.", "implications": "Wide gaps between advertised pay for skilled trades and health care roles locally (CDL Truck Driver up to $81,164, Registered Nurse at $126,215, Certified Nursing Assistant at $55,640) and flat or declining pay in manufacturing and retail production work point to an economy where investment capacity is concentrated in logistics, construction-adjacent trades, and care infrastructure rather than broad-based expansion. Public-sector stability and continued state investment in mid-skill training (Employment Training Panel's $4M October allocation) suggest nonmetro areas remain more dependent on public and institutional spending than private-sector momentum for local economic resilience. Civic and commerce leaders should consider evaluating which sectors are absorbing current wage gains before assuming a broad-based business climate improvement is underway.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "No discrete BLS or EDD series exists for 'CA Nonmetropolitan' as a unified geography, so county-level unemployment and payroll reports (Fresno, Kern, Tulare, Imperial) remain the most reliable proxies. Commerce leaders relying on state-level summaries should pair them with county EDD releases before drawing local conclusions."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings have reached 583 notices covering 65,139 workers through late October, with large filings concentrated in coastal tech and services firms so far. Watch whether displaced workers begin appearing in nonmetro labor pools as remote or hybrid arrangements end."}, {"category": "Policy to track", "body": "SB 951's new requirement that WARN notices disclose AI-driven layoffs, with EDD publishing quarterly displacement reports, will give nonmetro economic development officials a new, more granular data source starting in coming quarters. This could materially improve visibility into local structural versus cyclical job loss."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide leisure/hospitality losses (-9,600 in September) and construction's continued tightness, partly tied to data center activity, cut in opposite directions for nonmetro economies dependent on tourism and building trades. Local chambers should track which force dominates their specific county's October-November data."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32429.0, "metro_p50": 36452.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32394.25, "metro_p50": 36660.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34549.0, "metro_p50": 38729.0, "metro_p75": 41598.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59963.0, "metro_p50": 81164.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34453.0, "metro_p50": 37547.0, "metro_p75": 42941.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36789.25, "metro_p50": 41782.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57104.25, "metro_p50": 75375.0, "metro_p75": 83079.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34370.0, "metro_p50": 37842.8, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35960.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33732.0, "metro_p50": 40144.0, "metro_p75": 45369.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 55640.0, "metro_p75": 66192.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36415.0, "metro_p50": 46282.0, "metro_p75": 52551.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60691.0, "metro_p50": 69714.0, "metro_p75": 78209.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101422.0, "metro_p50": 126215.0, "metro_p75": 137280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120000.0, "metro_p50": 160000.0, "metro_p75": 179375.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99222.0, "metro_p50": 145913.6, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59565.0, "metro_p50": 70380.0, "metro_p75": 78944.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74998.0, "metro_p50": 96795.2, "metro_p75": 103730.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 79897.8, "metro_p75": 86309.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43374.0, "metro_p50": 59998.2, "metro_p75": 71428.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85608.5, "metro_p50": 111978.0, "metro_p75": 119791.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49894.0, "metro_p50": 63802.0, "metro_p75": 71546.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65912.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 123151.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82936.25, "metro_p50": 98908.6, "metro_p75": 113198.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 91000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 129988.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 48880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 130989.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 99700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 96727.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 94685.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 41080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72387.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "County-level unemployment rates for Fresno, Bakersfield-Delano, coastal metros"}, {"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "California unemployment held at 5.1% for third consecutive month"}, {"source_name": "LayoffIQ", "source_url": null, "statement": "Statewide WARN filings total and worker count through October 21"}, {"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Education/health services added 14,200 jobs statewide in September"}, {"source_name": "California State Legislature", "source_url": null, "statement": "SB 951 requires WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs"}, {"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Leisure/hospitality statewide job losses of 6,800-9,600 in September"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:25.073366+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}