{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 127, "label": "CA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:26.966190+00:00", "headline": "Rural California absorbs the state's weakest labor market readings.", "headline_summary": "California's 5.1% unemployment rate \u2014 worst in the nation \u2014 and 3.1% wage growth trailing inflation point to nonmetropolitan counties bearing outsized exposure to single-employer risk and softening purchasing power.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "California unemployment rate", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Highest of any U.S. state, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "California wage growth", "value": "3.1% YoY", "context": "Trails national inflation near 3.4%"}, {"label": "CA nonfarm job growth share", "value": "24% of U.S. total", "context": "+39,400 of nation's +162,000, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "State transition funding", "value": "$3 million", "context": "Allocated for Valero Benicia Refinery closure"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rural California carries the state's unemployment burden.", "body": "California's 5.1% statewide unemployment rate already ranks worst in the nation, and nonmetropolitan counties \u2014 further from the healthcare, education, and tech-adjacent job growth concentrated in urban centers \u2014 likely sit above that average. Commerce leaders should treat local labor force trends as more fragile than statewide averages suggest."}, {"headline": "Single-employer closures remain the defining risk for rural economies.", "body": "The Valero Benicia Refinery closure and the state's $3 million transition allocation illustrate how one plant or facility decision can reshape a nonmetro county's economic outlook overnight. Economic development leaders should prioritize mapping employer concentration risk across their own county base rather than relying on statewide sector trends."}, {"headline": "Wage growth is losing ground to inflation statewide.", "body": "California wage gains slowed to 3.1% year-over-year, trailing national inflation readings near 3.4%, which erodes real purchasing power for workers in lower-wage, consumer-facing roles common in nonmetro economies. Retail and hospitality-dependent local business districts may see softer discretionary spending even where headline job counts look stable."}, {"headline": "Public-sector hiring is a stabilizing, not expanding, force.", "body": "Statewide, local government education added jobs for back-to-school hiring while broader government payrolls nationally continued a 216,000 year-long decline. For nonmetro counties where public-sector employment forms a larger share of the local base, this signals steadiness rather than momentum \u2014 a buffer, not a growth engine."}], "local_conditions": "California's rural and nonmetropolitan counties enter September 2026 carrying a disproportionate share of the state's 5.1% unemployment rate, the highest of any state, as commodity-dependent sectors like agriculture and energy face margin pressure from softening finance and professional-services activity statewide. Statewide gains are concentrated in healthcare, education, and consumer-facing services, while the planned April 2026 Valero Benicia Refinery closure and $3 million in state transition funding signal that single-employer concentration risk remains an acute vulnerability for non-urban regional economies.", "implications": "Uneven sector performance statewide \u2014 services and public education expanding while finance, information, and professional services contract \u2014 suggests nonmetropolitan economies reliant on fewer large employers face sharper swings than diversified metro areas when any single sector softens. Commerce leaders evaluating local investment or expansion timing should weigh this concentration risk alongside statewide wage growth slowing to 3.1%, which signals constrained household purchasing power even where job counts hold steady. Current conditions suggest regional economic development bodies should track employer-concentration exposure in their county base and monitor state transition-funding programs as a leading indicator of where diversification support may be needed next.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "October 16 brings California's September state employment report; nonmetro-adjacent sectors like agriculture, logistics, and energy warrant particular attention given statewide softness in finance and professional services."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Valero Benicia Refinery's planned April 2026 closure and the state's $3 million transition fund deployment will offer an early test case for how nonmetro regions absorb single-employer shutdowns \u2014 worth tracking for lessons applicable elsewhere in rural California."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated among large employers (Amazon, Meta, Verizon); monitor whether any affected worker relocation or remote-work displacement reaches nonmetropolitan California labor pools."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "California's minimum wage rises to $17.40 on January 1, 2027 \u2014 nonmetro retail, hospitality, and food-service employers should factor this into fourth-quarter planning and watch for early wage-setting moves ahead of the mandate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32546.0, "metro_p50": 36435.8, "metro_p75": 39229.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31756.5, "metro_p50": 36296.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34450.5, "metro_p50": 37883.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56663.75, "metro_p50": 75780.0, "metro_p75": 86992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34453.0, "metro_p50": 37663.0, "metro_p75": 42133.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36132.5, "metro_p50": 42349.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57343.0, "metro_p50": 74922.0, "metro_p75": 81858.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34552.0, "metro_p50": 38020.2, "metro_p75": 40718.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36000.0, "metro_p50": 41234.0, "metro_p75": 45685.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33461.0, "metro_p50": 39166.0, "metro_p75": 44797.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41882.0, "metro_p50": 54355.0, "metro_p75": 63440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35662.75, "metro_p50": 45360.8, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61412.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 79040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98800.0, "metro_p50": 124800.0, "metro_p75": 136780.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119239.0, "metro_p50": 158857.0, "metro_p75": 178750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99394.0, "metro_p50": 146704.8, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59565.0, "metro_p50": 71813.2, "metro_p75": 80514.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75208.0, "metro_p50": 96932.2, "metro_p75": 104165.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56293.0, "metro_p50": 80019.6, "metro_p75": 87281.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45149.75, "metro_p50": 61076.8, "metro_p75": 73083.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79417.0, "metro_p50": 94368.4, "metro_p75": 116119.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49588.0, "metro_p50": 63270.0, "metro_p75": 70029.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64480.0, "metro_p50": 99167.6, "metro_p75": 121525.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60099.75, "metro_p50": 89500.0, "metro_p75": 100625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83330.0, "metro_p50": 99224.8, "metro_p75": 113204.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 92780.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 125000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63714.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 127969.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 105972.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 94322.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 90000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 74214.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:03.678427+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ca-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}