{"schema_version": 1, "id": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 100, "label": "Burlington-South Burlington, VT MSA", "slug": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:28:15.378238+00:00", "headline": "Burlington restaurants add jobs into a labor market with no slack.", "headline_summary": "Chittenden County's 2.3% unemployment rate and a significant jump in metro Server pay to $43,680 show restaurant hiring gains are being bought, not found.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Chittenden County unemployment", "value": "2.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 2.6% Vermont"}, {"label": "Restaurant sector jobs vs. 2019", "value": "-8%", "context": "Vermont eating & drinking places, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Accommodation & Food Services jobs added", "value": "+300", "context": "Only Vermont sector with notable August growth"}, {"label": "Chittenden average weekly wage growth", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Year-over-year through Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay is repricing faster than any other role in the market.", "body": "Metro Server pay rose significantly to $43,680, well above the flat $34,915 national figure. That gap is consistent with Vermont's narrow tipped-employee threshold ($120/month vs. federal $30), which pulls more servers under the full base-wage obligation and compresses the tip-credit savings operators typically rely on."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house wage floors are rising without back-of-house slack to fill them.", "body": "Line Cook advertised pay climbed to $45,760 against a Vermont restaurant sector still 8 percent below 2019 employment levels. Kitchen staffing gaps in a tight 2.3 percent unemployment county suggest retention investment will outperform recruitment spend for this role."}, {"headline": "Management pay stability may mask a coming squeeze.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay is stable at $70,000 while national figures are trending down moderately, widening the metro premium. Flat local pay alongside rising line-level wages compresses the management pay differential, a dynamic that historically precedes manager attrition or promotion-track adjustments."}, {"headline": "Statewide government layoffs could loosen adjacent labor supply.", "body": "State and local government cut 1,000 combined jobs in August, and UVM Health Network layoffs are set to land in October. Displaced administrative and hospitality-adjacent workers may represent an underused sourcing channel for front-of-house and shift-management roles over the next quarter."}], "local_conditions": "Chittenden County's unemployment rate held at 2.3 percent in August, among the tightest labor markets in the country, even as Accommodation & Food Services added 300 jobs statewide \u2014 the only Vermont industry to post notable growth that month. That hiring gain arrives against a structural backdrop of an 8 percent shortfall in Vermont eating-and-drinking-place jobs versus 2019, meaning new restaurant hires are being pulled from an already-depleted labor pool rather than a recovering one.", "implications": "Restaurant employment growth in a county with 1.6 open jobs per unemployed worker signals that hiring is happening through wage competition and poaching, not slack absorption \u2014 advertised Server pay rising to a $43,680 metro median (a significant year-over-year move) reflects operators bidding for a shrinking front-of-house pool rather than a broad-based cost reset. Back-of-house roles face a parallel but distinct pressure: Line Cook pay is up moderately to $45,760, well above the $36,702 national median, consistent with fixed $14.42 minimum-wage exposure and no tip-credit offset to cushion margins. Consider evaluating whether current labor-cost-to-revenue targets still hold given front-of-house and back-of-house pay are moving up simultaneously rather than trading off against each other.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "January 1 minimum wage reset applies Vermont's 5%-or-CPI cap, meaning both the $14.42 base wage and $7.21 tipped wage will adjust again. Budget planning for 2027 labor cost ratios should build in this scheduled increase now rather than treating it as a surprise."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "UVM Health Network layoffs, effective October, add to a WARN Act total already up 88 percent year over year in Vermont. Watch whether any of that displaced labor \u2014 clinical support, food service, facilities \u2014 shows interest in restaurant roles given proximity to Burlington's core labor market."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Accommodation & Food Services was the lone Vermont sector adding jobs in August, a signal that could reverse quickly given 49 percent of national operators report softer traffic year over year. Monitor whether local hiring gains hold through the fall shoulder season or represent a one-month blip."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Chittenden County employment fell 1.8 percent over the year even as job openings remain elevated, an unusual combination that points to labor force exits rather than demand softness. If that trend persists, expect advertised pay for hard-to-fill back-of-house roles to keep climbing regardless of national wage trends."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40040.0, "metro_p50": 45134.6, "metro_p75": 47820.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 57500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32187.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38293.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63423.75, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 76176.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 58760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32097.0, "metro_p50": 35997.8, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:33:25.145556+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}