{"schema_version": 1, "id": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 100, "label": "Burlington-South Burlington, VT MSA", "slug": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:21.474193+00:00", "headline": "Burlington's low jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Chittenden County unemployment sits near 2.3%, yet county employment fell 1.8% year-over-year and average weekly wages rose to $1,521, a combination suggesting labor-force exits rather than broad-based hiring strength.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Chittenden County employment change", "value": "-1.8%", "context": "Year-over-year through March 2026, 345th of 371 large U.S. counties"}, {"label": "Chittenden County unemployment rate", "value": "2.3%", "context": "September 2026, vs. Vermont statewide 2.5-2.6%"}, {"label": "Chittenden County average weekly wage", "value": "$1,521", "context": "Up 3.4% YoY Q1 2026, ranks 121st nationally"}, {"label": "State/local government employment", "value": "-600 / -400 jobs", "context": "State down 3.2%, local down 1.3% in Vermont"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tight unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Chittenden County's unemployment rate near 2.3-2.6% looks healthy in isolation, but county employment actually fell 1.8% year-over-year, a sign that people are leaving the labor force rather than finding jobs elsewhere. That distinction matters for any economic development pitch built on labor availability."}, {"headline": "Public-sector contraction is a quiet drag on local momentum.", "body": "State government employment dropped 3.2% and local government 1.3% even as the broader economy held steady, narrowing the public payroll base that typically stabilizes a metro through downturns. Commerce leaders should treat public-sector hiring as a watch item rather than an assumed stabilizer this cycle."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are real but not keeping pace nationally.", "body": "Chittenden County average weekly wages rose 3.4% to $1,521 in Q1 2026, outpacing Vermont's statewide 3.0% gain, yet the county still ranks only 121st nationally on wage growth. Local purchasing power is improving in absolute terms but losing ground relative to peer metros nationally."}, {"headline": "Housing scarcity is now a labor-supply constraint, not just an affordability story.", "body": "Chittenden County's July 2026 economic review flags workforce and middle-income housing shortages as the region's most pressing issue, with meaningful new supply not expected until 2027-28. Any employer expansion plan premised on attracting outside workers runs into a housing ceiling before it runs into a wage ceiling."}], "local_conditions": "Chittenden County employment fell 1.8% year-over-year through March 2026, ranking among the weakest-performing large counties nationally even as the unemployment rate held near 2.3-2.6%, a combination consistent with workers exiting the labor force rather than losing jobs to layoffs. Vermont's statewide labor force contraction, aging demographics, and a persistent housing shortage appear to be constraining labor supply even as advertised wages in some metro occupations continue rising faster than national benchmarks, a signature of a supply-starved rather than demand-starved local economy.", "implications": "Low unemployment paired with shrinking employment counts signals a metro economy constrained by worker availability, not by business demand, which changes the calculus for commerce leaders weighing local expansion versus relocation or automation investment. Public-sector payroll contraction at the state and local level (-600 state jobs, -400 local government jobs) suggests reduced public spending capacity even as healthcare and construction show relative resilience, a divergence worth factoring into any assessment of the metro's near-term tax base and civic investment capacity. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders should weigh housing supply and labor-force participation trends as seriously as wage data when evaluating the region's capacity to support new investment or expansion.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "UVM Health Network layoffs announced earlier in 2026 will not register in claims data until October, following a June WARN notice for 142 workers. Watch whether this shows up as a one-time adjustment or the start of a broader healthcare-sector pullback in a metro where healthcare is a primary employment anchor."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Three Franklin County dairy and food manufacturers announced mass layoffs in Q2 2026, and manufacturing already accounts for 22% of statewide UI claims despite shrinking as a share of the economy. A continued manufacturing contraction would compound the labor-force exits already visible in Chittenden County data."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Vermont's November ballot includes a Right to Collective Bargaining Amendment with 65% polling support as of September, a policy question with direct implications for public-sector labor costs and negotiation dynamics across the metro's hospitals, schools, and municipalities."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to July and August, and real wages are no longer outpacing inflation nationally. A continued national slowdown would test whether Burlington's tight labor market reflects durable local strength or simply a smaller, aging labor pool insulated from national demand signals."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38090.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31575.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36992.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44645.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 71740.0, "metro_p75": 79827.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33818.0, "metro_p50": 38691.0, "metro_p75": 47086.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 50000.0, "metro_p75": 63440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 72415.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36415.75, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 45526.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35742.0, "metro_p50": 39011.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33828.0, "metro_p50": 42816.0, "metro_p75": 46030.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38557.0, "metro_p50": 48594.0, "metro_p75": 57200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77135.0, "metro_p50": 87931.0, "metro_p75": 91052.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91003.25, "metro_p50": 109595.4, "metro_p75": 122790.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94240.0, "metro_p50": 133349.0, "metro_p75": 147246.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97896.75, "metro_p50": 124064.4, "metro_p75": 136982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 88800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 83357.0, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56897.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 74461.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 67080.0, "metro_p75": 75426.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59500.0, "metro_p50": 59500.0, "metro_p75": 59500.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44242.0, "metro_p50": 62446.0, "metro_p75": 72000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66287.5, "metro_p50": 89635.2, "metro_p75": 102692.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77374.0, "metro_p50": 96500.0, "metro_p75": 110000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 61027.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38159.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 74250.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 70500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 68130.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 80570.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68077.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:49:01.857797+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/burlington-south-burlington-vt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}