Burlington's low jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.
-1.8%
Chittenden County employment change
Year-over-year through March 2026, 345th of 371 large U.S. counties
2.3%
Chittenden County unemployment rate
September 2026, vs. Vermont statewide 2.5-2.6%
$1,521
Chittenden County average weekly wage
Up 3.4% YoY Q1 2026, ranks 121st nationally
-600 / -400 jobs
State/local government employment
State down 3.2%, local down 1.3% in Vermont
This Month's Takeaways
01
Tight unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.
Chittenden County's unemployment rate near 2.3-2.6% looks healthy in isolation, but county employment actually fell 1.8% year-over-year, a sign that people are leaving the labor force rather than finding jobs elsewhere. That distinction matters for any economic development pitch built on labor availability.
02
Public-sector contraction is a quiet drag on local momentum.
State government employment dropped 3.2% and local government 1.3% even as the broader economy held steady, narrowing the public payroll base that typically stabilizes a metro through downturns. Commerce leaders should treat public-sector hiring as a watch item rather than an assumed stabilizer this cycle.
03
Wage gains are real but not keeping pace nationally.
Chittenden County average weekly wages rose 3.4% to $1,521 in Q1 2026, outpacing Vermont's statewide 3.0% gain, yet the county still ranks only 121st nationally on wage growth. Local purchasing power is improving in absolute terms but losing ground relative to peer metros nationally.
04
Housing scarcity is now a labor-supply constraint, not just an affordability story.
Chittenden County's July 2026 economic review flags workforce and middle-income housing shortages as the region's most pressing issue, with meaningful new supply not expected until 2027-28. Any employer expansion plan premised on attracting outside workers runs into a housing ceiling before it runs into a wage ceiling.
Local Economic Conditions
Chittenden County employment fell 1.8% year-over-year through March 2026, ranking among the weakest-performing large counties nationally even as the unemployment rate held near 2.3-2.6%, a combination consistent with workers exiting the labor force rather than losing jobs to layoffs. Vermont's statewide labor force contraction, aging demographics, and a persistent housing shortage appear to be constraining labor supply even as advertised wages in some metro occupations continue rising faster than national benchmarks, a signature of a supply-starved rather than demand-starved local economy.
Open Threads in the Data
Low unemployment paired with shrinking employment counts signals a metro economy constrained by worker availability, not by business demand, which changes the calculus for commerce leaders weighing local expansion versus relocation or automation investment. Public-sector payroll contraction at the state and local level (-600 state jobs, -400 local government jobs) suggests reduced public spending capacity even as healthcare and construction show relative resilience, a divergence worth factoring into any assessment of the metro's near-term tax base and civic investment capacity. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders should weigh housing supply and labor-force participation trends as seriously as wage data when evaluating the region's capacity to support new investment or expansion.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the Burlington-South Burlington, VT MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$35,360 |
→ Stable |
1,859 |
| Retail Cashier |
$35,360 |
→ Stable |
461 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$41,600 |
↑ Moderate increase |
442 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$71,740 |
↑ Moderate increase |
1,219 |
| Delivery Driver |
$38,691 |
↓ Significant decline |
1,194 |
| Warehouse Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$50,000 |
↓ Moderate decline |
46 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$72,415 |
↑ Moderate increase |
168 |
| HVAC Technician |
$87,931 |
↓ Moderate decline |
33 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$44,720 |
↓ Moderate decline |
244 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$39,011 |
↑ Moderate increase |
267 |
| Operations Manager |
$59,500 |
Limited local postings |
3 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$42,816 |
→ Stable |
116 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$48,594 |
→ Stable |
511 |
| Registered Nurse |
$109,595 |
→ Stable |
4,180 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$48,880 |
→ Stable |
295 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$133,349 |
↑ Significant increase |
327 |
| Data Engineer |
$124,064 |
↑ Significant increase |
60 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$75,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
152 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$72,500 |
↑ Significant increase |
31 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$67,080 |
↓ Moderate decline |
21 |
| Business Analyst |
$96,500 |
→ Stable |
76 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$83,357 |
→ Stable |
108 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$62,446 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,361 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$89,635 |
↑ Significant increase |
307 |
Industry Snapshot · Burlington-South Burlington, VT MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
→ −1.8% |
↑ +105.6% |
| Manufacturing |
→ +2.1% |
↑ +129.9% |
| Retail Trade |
→ −0.8% |
↑ +104.7% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↓ −9.0% |
↑ +168.4% |
| Information |
↑ +14.9% |
↑ +41.4% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +3.0% |
↑ +240.1% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +23.1% |
↑ +178.4% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +4.0% |
↑ +123.6% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ −0.7% |
↑ +81.6% |
| Government |
↑ +78.7% |
↑ +860.3% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Potential inflection point
UVM Health Network layoffs announced earlier in 2026 will not register in claims data until October, following a June WARN notice for 142 workers. Watch whether this shows up as a one-time adjustment or the start of a broader healthcare-sector pullback in a metro where healthcare is a primary employment anchor.
Emerging pressure point
Three Franklin County dairy and food manufacturers announced mass layoffs in Q2 2026, and manufacturing already accounts for 22% of statewide UI claims despite shrinking as a share of the economy. A continued manufacturing contraction would compound the labor-force exits already visible in Chittenden County data.
Early indicator
Vermont's November ballot includes a Right to Collective Bargaining Amendment with 65% polling support as of September, a policy question with direct implications for public-sector labor costs and negotiation dynamics across the metro's hospitals, schools, and municipalities.
Worth watching
National nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to July and August, and real wages are no longer outpacing inflation nationally. A continued national slowdown would test whether Burlington's tight labor market reflects durable local strength or simply a smaller, aging labor pool insulated from national demand signals.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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