{"schema_version": 1, "id": "burlington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 119, "label": "Burlington, NC MSA", "slug": "burlington-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:29:00.041635+00:00", "headline": "Burlington's low jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Burlington MSA unemployment held at 3.8% even as the metro averaged 50 net job losses per month in 2026, while skilled trades and healthcare wages pulled further ahead of frontline pay.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Burlington MSA unemployment", "value": "3.8%", "context": "vs 4.3% a year ago, 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Metro monthly job change", "value": "-50 jobs/mo avg", "context": "5th-worst metro job growth in NC since 2025"}, {"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "vs 61.6% ten-year state high (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "NC 12-month labor force change", "value": "-1.6%", "context": "Statewide decline through July 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment here masks a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Burlington's 3.8% unemployment rate looks favorable against the 4.1% national figure, but the metro's average monthly job loss of 50 positions through 2026 indicates the tightness stems from fewer workers in the labor pool. Economic development plans premised on available local labor may need to account for in-migration or commuting patterns instead."}, {"headline": "Downtown investment signals confidence despite flat job counts.", "body": "Topia Holdings' $3.65 million mill redevelopment and seven new downtown businesses point to capital committing to Burlington even as aggregate payrolls stagnate. That divergence suggests investors are betting on location and redevelopment value ahead of near-term employment growth."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and healthcare pay are pulling away from frontline wages.", "body": "HVAC technician pay rose significantly locally to $70,054 and registered nurse pay climbed to $99,764, while customer service and food service wages fell significantly in the same period. Widening gap is consistent with the statewide pattern of inequality in wage growth, and it signals where local consumer spending power is concentrating."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing wage softness tracks the sector's statewide retreat.", "body": "Metro manufacturing production worker pay fell moderately to $35,360 against a stable national figure, aligning with North Carolina's broader manufacturing job losses (-8,800 annually) and MasterBrand Cabinets' 391-worker WARN filing in Kinston. Commerce leaders tracking industrial resilience should watch whether Burlington's textile-to-diversified transition continues absorbing displaced manufacturing workers into healthcare or logistics."}], "local_conditions": "Burlington MSA unemployment held at 3.8% in August, down half a point from a year earlier, even as the metro shed an average of 50 jobs per month through 2026 \u2014 a combination that points to a shrinking labor pool as the driver, with the broader economy holding steady. Local wage softness in several frontline categories, including construction laborers and customer service representatives, contrasts with targeted strength in skilled trades and healthcare, consistent with a metro reallocating capacity toward higher-value sectors as its manufacturing legacy continues to recede.", "implications": "Modest net job loss alongside falling unemployment suggests Burlington's labor force is contracting while demand for workers holds up, a dynamic that limits how much new investment the area can absorb without drawing commuters or new residents. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion should weigh that $3.65 million Topia Holdings redevelopment and downtown's seven new storefronts as evidence of appetite for investment, even as the broader job count signals capacity constraints on available labor. Current conditions suggest monitoring labor force participation alongside unemployment, since a low jobless rate paired with shrinking payrolls points to a labor pool constraint distinct from labor market slack.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Burlington's monthly job count stabilizes or continues its 2026 pattern of net losses; a fourth consecutive quarter of decline would raise questions about the durability of the area's low unemployment rate."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Track whether downtown Burlington's wave of new small-business openings translates into measurable payroll growth, or remains a redevelopment story without broader employment impact."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "North Carolina's labor force participation rate sits at 57.8%, well below its 61.6% ten-year high; any further statewide decline would compound Burlington's existing labor-pool constraints and merits monitoring in county-level releases."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "State manufacturing job losses and WARN filings in neighboring counties (MasterBrand Cabinets, Regional Acceptance Corp) warrant attention for whether displaced workers migrate toward Burlington's healthcare and skilled-trades openings, easing some local wage pressure in those sectors."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23169.0, "metro_p50": 29479.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23503.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29148.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30370.0, "metro_p50": 34195.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 76907.0, "metro_p75": 88218.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27544.0, "metro_p50": 30628.0, "metro_p75": 35934.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 67957.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30665.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38052.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33290.0, "metro_p50": 36662.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25831.75, "metro_p50": 28363.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 34794.8, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34118.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46550.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57131.75, "metro_p50": 70054.0, "metro_p75": 78520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83851.5, "metro_p50": 99764.0, "metro_p75": 106477.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99792.0, "metro_p50": 142500.0, "metro_p75": 158677.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100620.0, "metro_p50": 127368.8, "metro_p75": 142605.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63430.75, "metro_p50": 67221.0, "metro_p75": 75983.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54036.0, "metro_p50": 75615.2, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51559.0, "metro_p50": 64713.6, "metro_p75": 79131.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63945.0, "metro_p50": 89501.0, "metro_p75": 91024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 46804.4, "metro_p75": 52721.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 94693.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90881.75, "metro_p50": 109353.0, "metro_p75": 110000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 57748.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36081.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56065.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 54336.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49138.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 53500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 68640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30337.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64896.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "NC Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Burlington MSA unemployment rate 3.8% in August 2026, down from 4.3% a year earlier"}, {"source_name": "USA Facts/BLS Employment Data", "source_url": null, "statement": "Burlington area lost average of 50 jobs per month in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Burlington Economic Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Topia Holdings invested $3.65 million creating 100 jobs via mill redevelopment"}, {"source_name": "Layoffiq", "source_url": null, "statement": "MasterBrand Cabinets filed WARN notice for 391 workers in Kinston, NC"}, {"source_name": "NC Office of State Budget and Management", "source_url": null, "statement": "NC labor force participation rate at 57.8%, below 61.6% ten-year high"}, {"source_name": "Atlanta Fed/OSBM", "source_url": null, "statement": "North Carolina labor force declined 1.6% over 12 months through July 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "burlington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "burlington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "burlington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:20.983210+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/burlington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/burlington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}