{"schema_version": 1, "id": "buffalo-niagara-falls-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 111, "label": "Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY MSA", "slug": "buffalo-niagara-falls-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:28:13.664846+00:00", "headline": "Buffalo wages lead the nation while job growth stalls.", "headline_summary": "Buffalo-Niagara Falls posted 6.5% gross pay growth in September, the highest of 56 major metros, even as unemployment rose to 4.5% and the metro averaged a 217-job monthly loss through 2026.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro gross pay growth", "value": "6.5%", "context": "Highest among 56 major U.S. metros, Sept. 2026 (ADP)"}, {"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Up from 4.4% a year earlier (Aug. 2026)"}, {"label": "Average monthly job change", "value": "-217 jobs/month", "context": "2026 average; 3rd-worst job growth among tracked metros"}, {"label": "Erie County employment YoY", "value": "+6,200 jobs", "context": "443,100 to 449,300 employed, Aug. 2025\u2013Aug. 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Buffalo's pay growth leads the nation while job counts lag.", "body": "September gross pay growth of 6.5% topped all 56 metros ADP tracks, yet the metro has averaged a monthly job loss of about 217 positions through 2026. Employers appear to be paying more for a workforce that is not visibly expanding, a sign of selective scarcity amid flat overall growth."}, {"headline": "Downward revisions complicate the read on true momentum.", "body": "March 2026 employment was revised down by roughly 3,200 jobs, concentrated in retail, manufacturing, and food/accommodation services. Commerce leaders relying on headline job counts should treat early monthly prints as provisional until revised."}, {"headline": "Anchor institutions are carrying job ad volume.", "body": "University at Buffalo (227 job ads), M&T Bank (294), and Catholic Health (216) are the largest advertisers for talent locally, measured by job ads, which track demand and often cover several openings each. Concentration in higher education, banking, and health care suggests institutional stability is doing most of the work to sustain local labor demand."}, {"headline": "Real wages may be eroding even where nominal pay looks strong.", "body": "National CPI gains of 3.5\u20133.7% continue to outpace median weekly earnings growth of 1.5%, and Buffalo's own base pay growth of 3.3% sits close to that inflation line despite the headline 6.5% gross pay figure. Consumer spending power locally may be weaker than the top-line wage number implies."}], "local_conditions": "Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA unemployment climbed to 4.5% in August 2026, up from 4.4% a year earlier, while Erie County added 6,200 jobs year-over-year even as monthly job counts have averaged a loss of roughly 217 per month across 2026 \u2014 a pattern consistent with downward revisions to earlier employment estimates across multiple sectors. Gross pay growth of 6.5% year-over-year in September, the highest among 56 major metros tracked by ADP, suggests wage pressure is running well ahead of the metro's soft employment-count trend, a divergence that merits scrutiny given base pay grew a more modest 3.3%.", "implications": "Divergence between flat-to-declining employment counts and outsized gross pay growth signals a labor market where available talent is scarce in pockets even as aggregate job creation stalls \u2014 a dynamic commerce leaders should read as tight capacity within an otherwise stable economy. Public and quasi-public anchors (University at Buffalo, M&T Bank, Catholic Health) continue to dominate local job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings) concentrated in education, finance, and health care. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation decisions should weigh the metro's wage-growth outlier status against its weaker net job creation, since labor costs may be rising faster locally than the underlying employment base would predict.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Erie County's unemployment rate (4.4% in August, up from 4.3% a year prior) continues drifting upward alongside continued net job losses will clarify if 2026's softness is stabilizing or deepening into 2027."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Future BLS revisions to 2026 monthly employment estimates, following the 3,200-job downward correction to March data, could materially change the metro's full-year growth narrative once finalized."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Continued divergence between Buffalo's 6.5% gross pay growth and its 3.3% base pay growth is worth tracking for signs of bonus or incentive-driven compensation distorting the headline figure versus durable wage gains."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "New York's statewide minimum wage freeze, triggered by a weak employment off-ramp provision, could affect Buffalo's lower-wage retail and food-service segments differently than higher-wage sectors already seeing pay growth well above that floor."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31284.0, "metro_p50": 35048.0, "metro_p75": 36972.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32658.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34897.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42315.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57953.0, "metro_p50": 80626.8, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32945.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 47500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 47420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69680.0, "metro_p50": 83000.0, "metro_p75": 86937.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37232.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46540.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33500.0, "metro_p50": 34965.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36029.0, "metro_p50": 43376.2, "metro_p75": 50388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60413.5, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 76960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84554.25, "metro_p50": 101120.0, "metro_p75": 107120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97634.5, "metro_p50": 138500.0, "metro_p75": 155200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101523.25, "metro_p50": 136524.0, "metro_p75": 150086.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72000.0, "metro_p75": 77100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77020.5, "metro_p50": 96518.8, "metro_p75": 99500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59347.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 99231.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51525.0, "metro_p50": 65584.6, "metro_p75": 71625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70618.0, "metro_p50": 88240.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35743.0, "metro_p50": 49025.0, "metro_p75": 53535.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 80325.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44912.75, "metro_p50": 72171.6, "metro_p75": 75063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78168.0, "metro_p50": 98000.0, "metro_p75": 109342.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62503.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56885.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 81745.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 85000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 61279.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 51075.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66428.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA unemployment at 4.5% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "ADP / WiseVoter", "source_url": null, "statement": "Buffalo metro led 56 major metros with 6.5% gross pay growth in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Spectrum Local News Buffalo", "source_url": null, "statement": "Buffalo averaged a loss of 217 jobs per month in 2026, 3rd-worst nationally"}, {"source_name": "Spectrum Local News Buffalo", "source_url": null, "statement": "March 2026 employment revised down by ~3,200 jobs"}, {"source_name": "NY State Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Erie County top employers by job openings: UB, M&T Bank, Catholic Health"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs. 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "buffalo-niagara-falls-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "buffalo-niagara-falls-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "buffalo-niagara-falls-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:18.746393+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/buffalo-niagara-falls-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/buffalo-niagara-falls-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}