{"schema_version": 1, "id": "brownsville-harlingen-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 82, "label": "Brownsville-Harlingen, TX MSA", "slug": "brownsville-harlingen-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:02.744011+00:00", "headline": "Brownsville unemployment spikes even as Starbase bets big.", "headline_summary": "Brownsville-Harlingen's jobless rate jumped to 7.3% in August \u2014 the largest year-over-year increase of any U.S. metro \u2014 while SpaceX's Starbase expansion promises thousands of future jobs that have yet to reach the county's $36,942 median wage.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "7.3%", "context": "Up 2.2 pts YoY, largest increase of any U.S. metro"}, {"label": "Total nonfarm employment", "value": "159,700", "context": "Down 800 jobs YoY, -0.5%"}, {"label": "Cameron County median annual wage", "value": "$36,942", "context": "2nd-lowest of Texas counties vs $48,621 state median"}, {"label": "Metro avg weekly wages", "value": "$917", "context": "Down from $956 prior quarter (Q1 2026)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Brownsville's unemployment spike is the sharpest in the country.", "body": "A 2.2-point year-over-year increase to 7.3% outpaces every other U.S. metro, even as Texas statewide unemployment sits near 4.0%. That gap between state and metro trajectories is consistent with localized disruption \u2014 likely tied to enforcement activity in construction and hospitality \u2014 rather than a broader Texas slowdown."}, {"headline": "Starbase growth and wage stagnation are both true at once.", "body": "SpaceX's relocation to the newly incorporated city of Starbase carries expectations of 4,000-6,000 additional employees within two years, yet Cameron County still posts the second-lowest median wage among Texas counties. The payoff from aerospace investment appears concentrated and has not yet lifted the broader local wage base."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay is softening across the metro's blue-collar core.", "body": "Construction laborer, manufacturing production, and delivery driver postings all show declining metro pay even as national figures hold stable, a pattern consistent with falling labor demand in sectors most exposed to enforcement-driven workforce disruption. CDL truck driver pay bucks the trend, up moderately to $87,198 \u2014 a sign freight and logistics tied to border trade remain comparatively resilient."}, {"headline": "Weekly wages are falling even as the state average climbs.", "body": "Metro average weekly wages dropped to $917 in Q1 2026 from $956 the prior quarter, moving opposite the statewide trend of accelerating wage growth. Combined with national real wage growth turning negative, local purchasing power faces pressure from two directions at once."}], "local_conditions": "Brownsville-Harlingen's unemployment rate climbed to 7.3% in August, the largest year-over-year increase of any metro area nationally at 2.2 percentage points, even as total nonfarm employment slipped to 159,700 \u2014 down 800 positions over the year. SpaceX's Starbase expansion and federal immigration enforcement activity at construction sites, hotels, and retail locations are pulling in opposite directions: one promising thousands of new positions over the next two years, the other visibly thinning the workforce in construction and hospitality right now.", "implications": "Divergence between a marquee aerospace expansion and a softening broader labor market complicates the read for commerce leaders weighing local investment timing \u2014 Starbase-driven demand is real but concentrated, while the metro's 7.3% unemployment rate and wage softening across retail, manufacturing, and clerical roles point to broader consumer-spending caution. Cameron County's median annual wage of $36,942 remains second-lowest among Texas counties despite the billions in announced investment, suggesting the benefits of large-scale projects have not yet diffused into the wider wage base. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Starbase-linked contracting and supplier activity shows up in local business formation data before treating the project as a metro-wide growth signal.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Starbase-related hiring and supplier contracts begin showing up in Cameron County payroll or business-formation data over the next two quarters. A gap between announced investment and measurable local employment gains would suggest the benefit is slower to materialize than headlines imply."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued immigration enforcement activity at construction sites, retail locations, and hotels bears monitoring for its measurable effect on labor supply in those sectors specifically, separate from any policy debate. Construction laborer and food service advertised pay are already declining \u2014 a useful leading indicator of workforce thinning."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. If that national softening persists, it compounds an already-declining local weekly wage trend and warrants attention from local economic development planning on consumer spending capacity."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Official September MSA-level data from the Texas Workforce Commission will publish in mid-October. Commerce leaders should treat the August 7.3% figure as the most recent confirmed read and expect confirmation of whether the spike is a one-month anomaly or a sustained trend."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21960.0, "metro_p50": 26580.0, "metro_p75": 32298.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20483.0, "metro_p50": 23831.0, "metro_p75": 24960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23875.0, "metro_p50": 30680.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60190.0, "metro_p50": 87198.2, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27177.0, "metro_p50": 30307.0, "metro_p75": 31292.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26378.5, "metro_p50": 32963.0, "metro_p75": 36578.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55109.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 71345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 29073.0, "metro_p75": 32144.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30040.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33475.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 30313.0, "metro_p75": 32149.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29512.0, "metro_p50": 34643.6, "metro_p75": 38293.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 31985.0, "metro_p75": 35319.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 57312.2, "metro_p75": 72217.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79621.0, "metro_p50": 94386.4, "metro_p75": 100347.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 129619.75, "metro_p50": 168036.0, "metro_p75": 173356.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100220.25, "metro_p50": 136140.4, "metro_p75": 154980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 56851.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72922.0, "metro_p50": 93297.6, "metro_p75": 101911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 47867.0, "metro_p75": 56055.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46677.0, "metro_p50": 60734.0, "metro_p75": 71585.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35081.0, "metro_p50": 54455.0, "metro_p75": 57500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34504.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 91495.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72308.0, "metro_p50": 81178.0, "metro_p75": 81179.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 69526.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 91684.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 32212.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60190.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 41652.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 42139.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 40647.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64363.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 26822.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67273.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "brownsville-harlingen-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "brownsville-harlingen-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "brownsville-harlingen-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:56.295092+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/brownsville-harlingen-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/brownsville-harlingen-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}