{"schema_version": 1, "id": "boulder-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 92, "label": "Boulder, CO MSA", "slug": "boulder-co-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:06.261905+00:00", "headline": "Boulder wages outpace the state while its workforce shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Boulder County employment fell 1.0% year-over-year even as average weekly wages jumped 6.6% to $2,107, a divergence from Colorado's statewide 4.0% unemployment rate and third consecutive month of job losses.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Boulder County employment change", "value": "-1.0%", "context": "Year-over-year, March 2025 to March 2026"}, {"label": "Boulder County avg weekly wage", "value": "$2,107", "context": "Up 6.6% YoY, vs 5.4% statewide"}, {"label": "Colorado unemployment rate", "value": "4.0%", "context": "Up from 3.9% in July; US rate 4.1%"}, {"label": "Colorado net domestic migration", "value": "Negative in 2025", "context": "Only out-migrating peer state"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Boulder's labor market is shrinking, not just slowing.", "body": "County employment fell 1.0% year-over-year to 185,013 positions even as wages rose sharply, a pattern more consistent with labor-supply contraction than demand weakness. For commerce leaders, this changes the diagnosis: expansion plans face a worker-availability constraint, not a cooling economy."}, {"headline": "Wage growth here is outrunning the state and the nation.", "body": "Boulder County's 6.6% average weekly wage growth exceeds Colorado's statewide 5.4% and far outpaces the national wage-inflation gap flagged in September's federal data. That divergence signals Boulder retains pricing power in its labor market even as broader state and national wage growth loses ground to inflation."}, {"headline": "Colorado's population drag is a Boulder problem too.", "body": "Colorado was the only peer state with negative net domestic migration in 2025, and reduced international immigration is compounding the labor-supply squeeze. Boulder's high cost of living and $16.82 local minimum wage make it especially exposed to this demographic constraint, a factor economic development planning should treat as structural rather than cyclical."}, {"headline": "State softening has not yet fully reached Boulder.", "body": "Colorado lost 1,400 jobs statewide in August and unemployment rose to 4.0%, but Boulder County's April unemployment reading of 3.4% remained meaningfully tighter. Commerce leaders should watch whether statewide softness \u2014 concentrated in information, financial activities, and manufacturing \u2014 begins showing up in Boulder's more insulated research and tech-heavy base."}], "local_conditions": "Boulder County employment slipped 1.0% year-over-year in the latest county data even as average weekly wages climbed 6.6% to $2,107, a combination consistent with a labor market where headcount is contracting in select sectors while remaining talent commands a premium. Statewide, Colorado's unemployment rate rose to 4.0% in August amid a third straight month of job losses and net domestic out-migration, trends that compound Boulder's already tight housing-constrained labor supply and point to population and participation, not demand, as the binding constraint on local commerce.", "implications": "Thinning employment alongside rising wages suggests Boulder's economy is not slowing from weak demand but is instead constrained by a shrinking available workforce, a dynamic that affects commercial expansion timelines, site-selection competitiveness, and public revenue forecasting more than it affects any single payroll decision. Commerce leaders evaluating whether this is a window for local investment should weigh the premium of operating in a high-wage, labor-constrained metro against Colorado's statewide softening, since Boulder's wage growth (6.6%) is outpacing the state's already strong 5.4% figure. Current conditions suggest reviewing expansion plans against labor-supply realities rather than pay competitiveness alone, since the binding constraint appears to be available workers, not willingness to pay for them.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Boulder County's next BLS county employment release confirms the 1.0% year-over-year decline or shows stabilization; a second consecutive decline would mark a genuine trend rather than a single-quarter anomaly."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Colorado's minimum wage rises to $15.71 in 2027 and Boulder's CPI-indexed local wage floor will adjust accordingly; commerce groups should track how this interacts with already-elevated local wage levels relative to statewide and national medians."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated among large employers (Amazon, Meta, Oracle among others cited nationally), while Colorado's 2026 WARN activity is down 11% year-over-year; any uptick in Front Range filings would be a meaningful signal given Boulder's small, concentrated employer base."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Colorado's Leeds Business Confidence Index rose but remains below the neutral 50 threshold, reflecting persistent pessimism despite modest gains. A sustained climb toward neutral over the next two quarters would be a credible signal that local business sentiment is turning, worth tracking for chambers and economic development corps planning outreach or investment campaigns."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32904.0, "metro_p50": 38229.0, "metro_p75": 41543.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32180.0, "metro_p50": 36227.0, "metro_p75": 38293.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34083.75, "metro_p50": 40528.0, "metro_p75": 42899.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60312.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 87994.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34174.0, "metro_p50": 37444.8, "metro_p75": 40768.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35865.0, "metro_p50": 43963.6, "metro_p75": 49026.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56394.5, "metro_p50": 72489.8, "metro_p75": 80070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34322.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35298.0, "metro_p50": 39440.0, "metro_p75": 42615.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30122.5, "metro_p50": 34728.6, "metro_p75": 37715.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39781.0, "metro_p50": 48038.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33922.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 51500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61733.0, "metro_p50": 66397.0, "metro_p75": 70993.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84323.0, "metro_p50": 97240.0, "metro_p75": 104945.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120000.0, "metro_p50": 153715.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99285.0, "metro_p50": 146674.8, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59565.0, "metro_p50": 71933.0, "metro_p75": 80618.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 98000.0, "metro_p75": 104870.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55214.5, "metro_p50": 83567.0, "metro_p75": 90960.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43660.0, "metro_p50": 58265.2, "metro_p75": 70713.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78593.0, "metro_p50": 95453.2, "metro_p75": 103143.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48682.0, "metro_p50": 62086.0, "metro_p75": 66835.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63208.5, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 117500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 52224.8, "metro_p75": 53015.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83684.5, "metro_p50": 99169.2, "metro_p75": 111854.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 82505.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 115744.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 63190.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 92575.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 125000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 108337.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 91638.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 44408.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72162.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "boulder-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "boulder-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "boulder-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:50.637111+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/boulder-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/boulder-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}