{"schema_version": 1, "id": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 118, "label": "Boise City-Nampa, ID MSA", "slug": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:18:20.715465+00:00", "headline": "Boise cooks stay scarce while full-service wage competition builds.", "headline_summary": "Cook vacancies in Idaho regions near Boise are running 41-58 days to fill as metro Line Cook pay ($38,480) already exceeds the national median, even as full-service job ads rise to 297 from 220 year-over-year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Southwestern Idaho unemployment", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Sep 2026, down from Sep 2025 but up from August"}, {"label": "Cook vacancy duration (E. Idaho)", "value": "58 days", "context": "Median, Sep 2026 postings"}, {"label": "Full-service job ads, SW Idaho", "value": "297", "context": "Up from 220 a year earlier; job ads signal hiring demand, and one ad often covers several openings"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "vs. 72% pre-pandemic baseline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Back-of-house vacancies are the metro's real cost driver.", "body": "Cook postings in eastern Idaho averaged 58 days to fill in September, with north central Idaho close behind at 41 days \u2014 far longer than typical front-of-house roles. Extended vacancies force overtime premiums or reduced hours, pushing labor cost per cover higher regardless of advertised base pay."}, {"headline": "Full-service hiring demand is outpacing limited-service locally.", "body": "Southwestern Idaho full-service job ads climbed to 297 from 220 year-over-year while limited-service ads slipped to 515 from 534 \u2014 job ads signal hiring demand, and one ad often covers several openings. Operators in full-service formats should expect more direct wage competition for servers and line cooks than quick-service counterparts face this cycle."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation creates a new cash-compensation lever.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule lets operators apply the $2.13 tipped wage to side work without the prior 20% cap, a national shift that reduces direct wage obligations during slow shifts. Idaho's $3.35 tipped cash floor already exceeds the federal minimum, so the practical savings here are modest but worth modeling into slow-period scheduling."}, {"headline": "Line Cook pay in Boise already tops the national figure.", "body": "Metro Line Cook advertised median sits at $38,480 against a $37,421 national median, while Assistant Restaurant Manager pay trails the national figure and is trending down. Divergent trajectories by role suggest compensation review should happen position-by-position instead of through blanket adjustments."}], "local_conditions": "Southwestern Idaho's unemployment rate sits at 3.5% in September, with both civilian labor force and total employment edging down month-over-month, signaling a labor pool that is tightening even as national job growth runs above breakeven pace. Restaurant-specific demand diverges sharply by segment: Boise-area full-service postings rose to 297 from 220 a year earlier while limited-service postings fell to 515 from 534, pointing to wage competition concentrated in full-service hiring even as overall candidate availability remains constrained.", "implications": "Elongated cook vacancies documented across eastern and north-central Idaho (41-58 median days to fill) are consistent with a back-of-house talent shortage that outpaces front-of-house, a pattern reinforced by BLS projecting 12% cook employment growth through 2035 against just 2% for waiters \u2014 a structural wage pressure point operators cannot staff their way around with front-of-house rate adjustments alone. Idaho's unchanged $7.25 minimum and $3.35 tipped cash wage leave no policy relief valve, meaning labor-cost-as-revenue-share discipline now depends on retention and scheduling efficiency, with wage floor changes unlikely to offer relief; current conditions suggest reviewing cook compensation and shift-differential structures separately from front-of-house pay bands given the diverging fill-time data.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Cook fill times above 40-55 days across multiple Idaho regions show no sign of easing; watch whether Boise-specific postings data confirms similar duration creep in November, which would justify revisiting back-of-house pay bands ahead of holiday-season volume."}, {"category": "Policy shift to monitor", "body": "80/20 rule elimination is federal, but Idaho has not signaled any state-level tipped-wage change. Operators should track whether neighboring states' aggressive tipped-wage moves (Flagstaff's full $18.35 minimum) create any cross-border recruiting pull for experienced front-of-house staff."}, {"category": "Seasonal signal", "body": "Southwestern Idaho's civilian labor force and employment both dipped in September; confirm whether this reflects normal seasonal softening or a tightening trend heading into the holiday hiring push, which would compress the runway for seasonal staffing plans."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Limited-service ad volume has declined year-over-year in both southwestern and southeastern Idaho, a signal of softer hiring demand that may also reflect consolidation. Track whether this translates into easier quick-service fill rates or simply fewer units competing for the same shrinking applicant pool."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28169.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 55079.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25072.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31746.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49920.0, "metro_p50": 59472.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35600.0, "metro_p75": 38565.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29058.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35964.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Southwestern Idaho unemployment at 3.5% with labor force and employment declines"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Labor Market Information", "source_url": null, "statement": "Full-service and limited-service job ad counts year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cook fill-time duration across eastern and north central Idaho"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projected cook vs. waiter employment growth 2025-2035"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrawal of federal 80/20 tipped wage rule"}, {"source_name": "Industry labor market research", "source_url": null, "statement": "National restaurant annual turnover rate near 80%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:19:00.523124+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}