{"schema_version": 1, "id": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 118, "label": "Boise City-Nampa, ID MSA", "slug": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:28:05.737637+00:00", "headline": "Boise wages soften just as hiring gets harder.", "headline_summary": "Southwestern Idaho's median advertised wage fell $0.25/hr while time-to-fill grew two days, even as Ada County unemployment held at a tight 3.1%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Ada County unemployment", "value": "3.1%", "context": "July 2026, down 0.2 pts year-over-year"}, {"label": "Boise MSA nonfarm job growth", "value": "0.3%", "context": "August 2026, trailing other Idaho metros"}, {"label": "Regional median advertised wage", "value": "-$0.25/hr", "context": "Southwestern Idaho, June-July 2026 change"}, {"label": "National restaurant payroll gain", "value": "+59,200 jobs", "context": "Largest monthly gain since Jan 2023"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Wage cooling and slower hiring are happening together.", "body": "Southwestern Idaho's median advertised wage dropped $0.25/hr while time-to-fill stretched two days longer, an unusual combination suggesting operators are testing lower pay ceilings even as the candidate pool tightens. Locking in advertised rates without watching fill-time closely risks understaffing through the fall banquet and holiday season."}, {"headline": "National hiring surge doesn't guarantee local traffic recovery.", "body": "Restaurant payrolls nationally grew by 59,200 jobs in August, the sharpest monthly increase since January 2023, yet 49% of operators report softer customer traffic year over year. Boise operators should treat national hiring momentum as a labor-supply signal, not a demand signal, when sizing headcount against revenue."}, {"headline": "Full-service segment stagnation concentrates back-of-house risk.", "body": "Idaho's full-service restaurant industry remained below pre-pandemic staffing levels through 2023-2024, a stagnation tied to elevated quit rates and competition from Boise's broader booming labor market, including Micron's 17,000-job regional expansion. Line cook and kitchen roles likely absorb disproportionate turnover pressure relative to front-of-house positions in a market this tight."}, {"headline": "Static tipped-wage policy widens the border recruitment gap.", "body": "Idaho's $3.35 tipped cash wage sits far below Washington's $17.13 and Oregon's $15.55 minimums, with no ballot initiative yet qualifying to change it. Operators near the northern border face a structural front-of-house recruitment disadvantage that advertised pay alone may not close."}], "local_conditions": "Ada County unemployment held at 3.1% in July against Boise MSA nonfarm job gains of just 0.3% in August, a combination consistent with a labor market that is tight on supply but cooling on hiring momentum. Southwestern Idaho's median advertised wage fell $0.25/hr even as time-to-fill lengthened two days, a signal that operators are pulling back on aggressive posted pay just as candidates take longer to secure \u2014 an unusual pairing that complicates both staffing and budgeting decisions for the season ahead.", "implications": "National restaurant payrolls posted their largest one-month gain since January 2023, yet nearly half of operators report softer traffic than a year ago \u2014 meaning Boise operators adding headcount now are doing so against uncertain revenue trendlines, not confirmed demand recovery. Idaho's static $3.35 tipped cash wage against Washington's $17.13 minimum and Oregon's $15.55 keeps border-adjacent front-of-house recruitment exposed, while full-service segment weakness statewide continues to concentrate turnover risk in back-of-house roles. Consider reviewing whether current staffing adds are matched to confirmed local traffic patterns before locking in fixed labor cost increases heading into fall.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Median advertised wages already fell $0.25/hr regionally even as time-to-fill lengthened. Watch whether this spread widens into September, which would suggest operators are underpricing roles relative to actual labor scarcity."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Micron's continuing semiconductor buildout is drawing construction and technical labor into the Boise market. Track whether this pulls back-of-house talent, particularly hourly kitchen staff, into higher-paying adjacent trades."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National restaurant job openings fell 27% from January to July while quits declined similarly, suggesting a national shift toward retention over hiring. Confirm whether Boise-specific quit rates are following this pattern before reallocating recruiting budget toward retention programs."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Idaho's $7.25/hr minimum wage remains unchanged with no qualifying ballot measure, even as Florida reaches $15.00 on September 30 and multiple states eliminate tip credit entirely. Monitor whether this growing national divergence increases pressure on Idaho's legislature or ballot process heading into 2027."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28456.0, "metro_p50": 38471.0, "metro_p75": 42583.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25292.0, "metro_p50": 29653.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31526.0, "metro_p50": 37718.4, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48102.0, "metro_p50": 59566.0, "metro_p75": 68500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30023.0, "metro_p50": 35598.0, "metro_p75": 39455.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29468.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35964.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:33:19.680292+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/boise-city-nampa-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}